Virginia Beach City Council is kicking around a few ideas about holding a referendum on light rail in Virginia Beach. A few have some good ideas, a few have some bad ones. The odd thing is they probably have the data to lead them to the answer if they’d ask for it.
First, they should reject with a chuckle Barbara Henley’s idea, reported in an excellent story in the Virginian-Pilot.
” Councilwoman Barbara Henley proposed wording a question to ask voters for guidance – “Should the City Council continue to pursue light rail?” for example – instead of asking for a direct yes or no on specifics.”
That’s a complete waste of time. If it wins, opponents would demand another referendum to actually build light rail instead of “pursuing” it. We’d be right where we already are. And if no, there’s really no way back. I think it would pass overwhelmingly and not mean a thing.
Then there is this fun ploy:
“I am not willing to support holding a light-rail referendum until we’re able to tell voters how much it will cost and how it will be paid for,” said Councilman John Moss, a skeptic on the issue.
As if Moss would support it if he had every last detail? Bah. Once he got costs, he’d likely say the costs are underestimated, and at the end of the day, Moss opposes light rail. He did before his election. No study is changing his mind, and only fools believe otherwise.
It is funny how the opponents of light rail have clamored for a referendum, but suddenly oppose having one in 2012. That might be telling.
“If the electorate in November is made up of more young people and more minorities – the groups of people likely to come out for Obama – I think that probably does help supporters of light rail,” (Pollster Quentin) Kidd said. “Those are the people who like the idea of light rail but would be less likely to come out specifically for a referendum vote in other years.”
I think opponents salivate over having a light rail referendum with Ken Cuccinelli potentially on the ballot in 2013. Cuccinelli opposed light rail when he served in the Senate, and it’s easy to assume that he’d continue that opposition with a much greater spotlight.
2014 is somewhat of a mystery, as turnout would be driven by what happens with the US Senate race and the Second Congressional District race. It could help. It could hurt. It’s tough to tell. But for the most part, turnout for these races doesn’t vary that widely.
But the pollster could do more than just guess based on the demographic predictions of 2012.
Take the data from his poll considering light rail in Virginia Beach. Apply likely voter models for November in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
That’ll give you a strong delta for how much variance there is based on turnout. Could be that on a percentage basis, we aren’t talking a great deal of difference. Or maybe there is. It’s easy to find out how much.
A poll could also be done for voters who vote without fail in every November election. That absolute core vote would be a high percentage of turnout in odd numbered years. If the core is positive, you’re ok, but if it is strongly opposed, supporters would want as many voters as possible to dilute that opposition if you want it to pass. If the goal is to defeat it, you’d want that core make up as much of the voting turnout as possible.
As Council debates in theory what the best course of action might be, effective polling can tell them what the likely scenarios might be, and then supporters and opponents can make their cases about if and when to hold a referendum based on real data.
