Some old commentators in ivory-towered universities opine that this nomination fight is over, or will be if Romney does in South Carolina and Florida what he did in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Not exactly so.
To get the needed 1,104 delegates for nomination, Romney has thus far garnered about 20. There are about 75 available in SC and FL, to be apportioned among the top votegetters.
The question really isn’t who wins until the “winner-take-all” primaries and they start in March.
Two key questions- How splintered does the field stay, and who stays in?
If all 6 candidates stay in, Romney’s going to amass victories, if not big delegate leads, until Super Tuesday.
If the field cuts in half, and soon, there is plenty of time for cracks to show in the Romney campaign.
Paul doesn’t seem to want to quit. He did alright in New Hampshire, but Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire in 1996, and we didn’t exactly name him President.
Perry is pushing hard in SC, having skipped NH. He may want to hang on for Texas, a winner-take-all state in April, but that’s a long road. Gingrich doesn’t seem too friendly lately. I expect Huntsman and Santorum to run out of money soon.
Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada all have primaries one week after Florida. The field of six means likely Romney victories in all. After that, there isn’t another primary until Feb.28th, and Super Tuesday the following week.
If Perry or Gingrich are still in this by Feb. 8th, this entire race could shift. Both have access to money and SuperPacs. Both can come close in the next few weeks to putting some Delegates on the board.
But each needs the other out, and probably Santorum to go, too. SC polls are tightening up. Perry is at 5 while Gingrich and Romney are in the 20s.
If Perry called it quits right now, everything shifts.
The GOP shifted Super Tuesday from February to March for a reason. The arc of these primaries has yet to play out, especially if the field consolidates.
Stay tuned.
