Definitive proof says Josh Huffman, but don’t be so sure.
Not only is Marshall carrying several fairly active items of legislation in the General Assembly, the boundaries of the congressional districts (and the State Senate districts, for that matter) have not been formally established. Which means Marshall will have to sort things out while in Richmond, ostensibly forming the coalitions needed to push his legislation through until March.
Meanwhile, not only will Marshall have to gather the petition signatures needed to formally get on the ballot, and not only will he have to compete with Allen and the host of challengers surrounding him, Marshall will also have to tackle the problem of fundraising while General Assembly is in session. Not that the law proscribes him from doing so — this is a federal race, after all — but Marshall’s time is a precious commodity while in Richmond.
Lastly, Marshall will have to make the campaign a three month sprint from when General Assembly ends until the June primary, fending off not only a former governor who signed a great majority of the legislation Marshall and Allen have championed in the past, but conservative challengers who will attempt to “out-Bob” Marshall on issues such as life, property rights, and the 2nd Amendment.
Marshall’s big toe is in the water…. heck, his whole foot might be. But Marshall is savvy enough of a campaigner to know that it will take an effort of millions of dollars to win the primary alone, much less the general election. Furthermore, Marshall will have to fend off the libertarian wing of the GOP huddling under Radtke… a fight that will be uncomfortable at best, and game-ending at worst for the remnants of the Tea Party that has rallied to her standard.
If asked, I’d put money on it that Marshall would tell you that he doesn’t know if he’s running yet. But I’d bet we’ll see an announcement of some sort — either running, or bowing out — in the next 10 days.
