The Iowa results have already been parsed within an inch of their lives. It’s a win for (your candidate’s name here). Except when it isn’t. Iowa has a wretched track record of picking the eventual Republican nominee — just as bad as does New Hampshire. The real decider of the contest is South Carolina, which has a perfect record of voting for the eventual nominee.
That doesn’t mean Iowa and New Hampshire don’t serve a purpose. They have a tendency to winnow the field. There is every indication that Texas Governor Rick Perry will drop out of the race after having spent over $6 million — or roughly $480 per vote — to come in fifth. Michele Bachmann, who narrowly won the Ames straw poll last summer and was touted, briefly, as the rising candidate, still believes she has something of a chance. She doesn’t.
All eyes are on former Sen. Rick Santorum, who made Iowa his adopted home before the vote. But let’s be honest about his campaign: he surged at the right time and only after voters had sampled every other flavor at the GOP ice cream stand. Once his overwhelming anti-Reagan tendencies come to light, he is done.
Newt intends to soldier on. He will make a fight of it in New Hampshire, where he was endorsed by the Manchester Union Leader. Gingrich has nothing to lose by staying in the race and everything to gain. But a poor finish in New Hampshire will all but end his campaign.
The Ron Paul juggernaut failed to meet the expectations of its adherents or the press. The good Doctor, though, has the grassroots organization to carry him on to other states. Whether he can grow that base, particularly among, you know, the Republican conservatives who vote in the later states, is an open question.
Romney goes on regardless of the outcome anywhere.
But back to Mr. Perry…
He could pack it up and go home, following in the footsteps of John Connolly and Phil Gramm as a well-funded Texas politician who just couldn’t make the sale outside of his home turf. Or, after re-evaluating, he could decide to fight…in South Carolina. A big risk, but it may be the only option, besides heading home, left to him.
And let’s not forget that there’s still that matter of Perry’s ballot access lawsuit here in Virginia. I would not expect him to drop it, particularly as other campaigns that failed to make the ballot joined his suit. If he does drop it, though, you know he’s out. There’s no use spending money to gain ballot access in a March primary state if the campaign has folded its tent.
On Christmas Eve, I wrote that Virginia had staged the nation’s first presidential primary, though completely by accident. The campaigns that failed to bother filing petition signatures at all — Hunstman, Santorum, Bachmann — showed they lacked the organizational heft to play outside of the the early states. The Perry and Gingrich campaigns, which came up short, blamed the system, or fraud, for their failures. At the time, some comment writers raged that their choices had been artificially narrowed, that skulduggery was involved, or that they would stay home in protest.
Funny thing, though, is that by the time Virginia actually does hold its primary, Romney and Paul could be the last two candidates standing.
