Rick Perry finished a disappointing fifth behind Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich in yesterday’s Iowa Caucuses. He momentarily said he was going to head back to Texas to “reassess” his campaign – but, rightfully so, he’s now pressing forward to New Hampshire for a debate on Saturday and then it’s on to South Carolina, a state which has correctly picked the Republican nominee forever.
While some have called for Perry to end the race and jump on-board the Santorum express, that would be a mistake because Perry’s campaign is far from over – for now.
Right now, Perry is not going to win in New Hampshire. He might even finish dead last – perhaps even behind Jon Huntsman.
And, in South Carolina, Real Clear Politics has him averaging 5.7 percent, one point below Michele Bachmann, who just dropped out of the race, but still three points better than Santorum.
Let’s face reality, Perry’s campaign has been far from what we at Bearing Drift expected this past September when we proclaimed this was “Perry’s to lose.”
His campaign has been in complete disarray and his debate performances have left much to be desired.
Yet, in this highly volatile campaign environment, there is still hope. With a new campaign team and vast improvements in his last few debate performances, does Perry have a shot?
Last night’s vote in Iowa only divvied up 7 delegates – unpledged ones at that – to Santorum, Romney and Paul – and New Hampshire remains a small delegate state. Therefore, the big prize remains South Carolina, followed on the heels by Florida and…Texas.
The campaign has yet to really come to South Carolina, but in the next two weeks, Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry will duke it out for the hearts and minds of social conservatives.
Right now, Gingrich has the early polling advantage, but you would expect Santorum to gain some of that support. Romney still has that 25 point ceiling, as he had in Iowa, and Ron Paul, who is a known commodity in SC from past campaigns, still only gets about 9 percent.
so, while it’s extremely narrow, there is still an opening for Perry. With a sizable campaign war chest, he has nothing to lose by going “all in” in SC. And it would not be a stretch for him to then pick up Florida and his home state Texas.
Then it’s on to Super Tuesday – where he could be back on the ballot in Virginia, if all goes well with the lawsuit (as would Gingrich and Santorum).
But here’s the kicker for Perry, as Politico is reporting, this weekend conservatives, such as Gary Bauer and James Dobson, are meeting in Texas to get behind a candidate. Could that candidate be the openly evangelical Perry?
If it is, then he quite possibly could still be in this race – to win it. If this group coalesces behind Gingrich or Santorum, then Perry’s campaign is likely over, no matter how much he reassess.
Rick Perry is about to have his faith tested, but could the evangelical be this year’s political Lazarus? If he’s the candidate this group rallies behind, he very well could be.
