…and before we get all verklepmt, O Radtke supporters, your candidate gets mauled 49-33 by Kaine and has a 10/22 favorable to unfavorable rating. ‘Nuff said — this will probably be the last independent poll we see with Radtke’s name in it.
There’s a couple of highlights here that are worth pulling out. These PPP numbers look solid at first glance (would have loved to see a breakdown of samples by region) so it’s not going to do any good attacking the poll. (full poll numbers here)
Some key takeaways:
VIRGINIA VOTERS HAVE MADE UP THEIR MINDS ON KAINE AND ALLEN — you either like them or you don’t, with both candidates having very similar favorable and unfavorable numbers, with undecideds hovering at 20%. Not much daylight there.
ALLEN DOES BETTER WITH “SOUTHERNERS” with 2/3rds of those polled willing to identify themselves as “southerners”. Before folks go off half-cocked on the idea that this is offensive, or that the MSM is or the Dems are trying to brand Allen as a racist yet again, keep this in mind — Mudcat Saunders and Jim Webb embraced the idea of southernness (our southron-ness, if you prefer) both in their campaign approach as well as Webb’s tome “Born Fighting” on the history of the Scotch-Irish in America. The Harvard-educated Tim Kaine has his work cut out for him if he is to identify with Virginia’s DNA.
MEN DON’T LIKE TIM KAINE… as in 48% of all men really don’t like Tim Kaine. 42% of women like Kaine, vs. 36% disliking the former DNC chairman. For those counting at home, that’s a 6-point difference. Husbands, talk to your wives…
KAINE HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER ALLEN AMONG INDEPENDENTS — but within the margin of error (4.0%).
TIM KAINE HAS A SERIOUS YOUTH PROBLEM. Now these are probably the most interesting numbers of the bunch. Youth prefer Allen over Kaine, as Allen’s favorables vs. unfavorables are 40/30 while Kaine’s are at 30/43. This is a massive shift from 2008 where the youth vote practically elected Barack Obama. This is a huge first for Allen’s campaign, though not surprising given the jobs market. Allen’s consistent hammering on jobs, jobs, jobs appears to be resonating with those looking for them.
Your only ray of light if you’re Tim Kaine? 18 thru 29 year olds still vote for Kaine by a 10-point margin, despite how they feel about the candidates themselves… which is more than compensated for by a 13 point gap among seniors in Allen’s favor.
RADTKE’S NEGATIVES PUT HER OUT OF THE RACE. As the PPP numbers (with a somewhat melancholy note, one might add) point out:
On the very, very off chance that Jamie Radtke were to nab the Republican nomination, she trails Kaine by a 49-33 margin.
With her negatives outweighing her positives by double-digit margins, Radtke is done for 2012. It will be nearly impossible for her to win the primary contest, much less the general election against Kaine.
For Allen, there are two items to point out here: (1) the national climate is still driving the train — so long as Obama bests the field of GOP challengers, those coattails will transfer to Kaine’s base of support, and (2) there is considerable room for improvement among women and youth voters. Senior citizens are overwhelmingly supporting Allen by 13pts — that is a constituency locked up at the moment.
For Kaine, these are good preliminary numbers… but there are cracks and fissures throughout this poll. Seniors are positively hostile to Kaine. Young voters don’t think Allen’s such a bad guy. Moreover, Kaine will have a difficult time replicating the formula for success that propelled Mark Warner to the Governor’s Mansion in ’01, Webb to the U.S. Senate in ’06, and Warner again to the U.S. Senate in ’08 — that being to break even in Southwest Virginia and drive up numbers in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
Such numbers for Kaine — even with a 5 point lead now — looks like thin ice on a 70 degree day in springtime once you dig in.
