Tonight’s debate takes place in Iowa 3 weeks before the Iowa Caucuses start the election season. The moderators are former Clinton propagandist George Stephanopoulos and Diane Sawyer.
The candidates in tonight’s debate are current frontrunner Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Santorum. Jon Huntsman did not qualify (and I’ve been wondering exactly what his qualifications were to participate in the other debates considering that he’s never garnered enough support in any poll to break out of the margin of error from zero).
Keep checking back here for live blogging once the debate begins at 9:00.
9:05: Gingrich invokes Reagan in the first sentence of the debate. Smart move given that he and Reagan are the two transformative Republican figures of the last half century.
9:07: Romney’s 7-point economic agenda is good, but too many points for easy consumption. He should reduce it to 3 broad points.
9:09: Perry advocates 20% flat tax. In this first round, he’s speaking more clearly and with more confidence than at previous debates.
9:11: Santorum starts by addressing Iowa’s economy specifically and segues into national economic policy. Very smart.
9:13: Santorum shoots down Diane Sawyer’s idiotic premise that candidates can promise to create a certain number of jobs, as if government creates jobs. Santorum wins Round 1.
9:17: Romney comes across as stiff and programmed. His support for continuing the payroll tax cut comes across as wanting to avoid a political issue. Santorum comes across as more genuine and takes a principled stand against continuing the payroll tax cut.
9:19: Stephanopoulos tries to goad Romney into attacking Gingrich. Romney declines and goes after Obama instead. When asked to distinguish himself from Gingrich, he stumbles and then mentions mining lunar rocks and putting kids to work in schools. Romney clearly is not comfortable directly engaging Gingrich. Gingrich’s retort that Romney would have been a career politician if he hadn’t lost to Ted Kennedy was a direct hit.
9:24: Gingrich comes back strong against Romney. Makes me salivate at the idea of Gingrich debating Obama.
9:25: Did Romney really just say that his best qualification for president was losing to Ted Kennedy?
9:26: Ron Paul has good line in saying that no one can beat him at consistency.
9:28: Gingrich lectures Ron Paul on the merits of the private sector and on economics. That takes guts.
9:29: Bachmann draws distinction with “Newt Romney.” Smart move, but probably won’t work.
9:32: Romney claims that he would have advised Obama against the individual mandate. But given that he imposed an individual mandate on the people of Massachusetts, why should we believe him? Perry immediately makes this point.
9:34: Perry’s not getting a lot of time in this debate, but so far he’s making good use of it and presenting much better than he has previously.
9:35: Romney defends RomneyCare on Tenth Amendment grounds and doubles down on it as good policy.
9:36: Perry claims that Romney wrote in his book that RomneyCare should be national model. Romney denies it and offers to bet Perry $10,000 on whether he wrote that. Perry backs down. Well played, Mitt.
9:39: Santorum claims to have been consistent in espousing ideas that were originated by Newt but later abandoned by him. Interesting point. Santorum continues to do well in this debate.
9:41: Santorum and Bachmann engage in 2-person debate, and America waits for the debate to get back to the viable candidates….
9:49: George Stephanopoulos just suggested to these Republican candidates that a candidate who cheats on his wife cannot be trusted to be faithful to the American people. None of the candidates had the courage to point out that Stephanopoulos was an apologist for Bill Clinton when he was impeached for committing perjury after he cheated on his wife.
9:53: None of the candidates take the bait to go after Gingrich for his extramarital affairs, but Gingrich addresses it head on and invites the voters to hold him accountable for his past transgressions. Smart and appropriate way to handle the matter.
9:56: Gingrich couches his support for Citizen Review Boards to grant residency to certain long-standing illegal aliens with his support for other very tough measures against most illegal aliens.
9:59: Romney opposes any provision to allow any illegal aliens to stay under any circumstances. Gingrich’s position seems more practical and more consistent with American compassion.
10:01: Perry calls for simply enforcing the immigration laws that are already on the books, but he’s not specific about which laws that are already on the books would be the solution if properly enforced.
10:03: Stephanopoulos asks the candidates if they “agree” with Gingrich’s description of the Palestinians as an “invented people” – as if it’s a matter of opinion. Gingrich was objectively correct as a matter of indisputable historical fact, and he says so. Gingrich goes on to call out the Palestinians for their support for terrorism and historical revisionism, which is the applause line of the night. Romney sides with the historical revisionists.
10:06: Gingrich responds to Romney by giving even more historical details. Gingrich is speaking truth to power, and he is right.
10:07: Romney continues to characterize Gingrich’s statements of historical facts as a “position” that a president ought not to take. I guess if Arab terrorists claimed that the sky is red, Romney would avoid stating that the sky is actually blue for fearing of offending them. Gingrich stands firm and says he will continue to state the truth.
10:11: Diane Sawyer laughs condescendingly at Bachmann, which is consistent with the way conservative women are treated by the establishment “news” media.
10:13: Perry gives rambling response but ends up making the point that Obama is the problem in the Middle East and not Gingrich.
10:22: In response to question about the candidates’ experiences having to give up necessities due to financial hardship, Romney states bluntly that he didn’t grow up poor and that it doesn’t change his qualifications to help improve the economy. Good answer.
10:24: Santorum states that he had what he really needed: a mother and a father. Good answer and good segue into his signature issue, promotion of family values.
10:29: ABC News is doing real-time polling and asking questions based on those results. Interesting approach to debate questioning.
10:29: Romney was asked a specific question: Do you believe the RomneyCare mandate is a good model for most states as you said in 2007? He once again dodges the question and says that states can do what they want. The question was asked because viewers want that question answered, and Romney didn’t do himself any favors by not respecting them enough to answer it.
10:32: Paul gets huge applause when he says that government should not seek to protect people from themselves. He’s right. I wish policymakers were listening.
10:34: Perry is not very articulate, but when he talks about cutting and reforming the federal government, he comes across as sincere and believable.
10:41: Santorum’s recitation of his first congressional race was nicely done, and again, a good use of an opportunity to take a respectful jab at Gingrich for not remaining consistent on some of the ideas that he espoused back in his GOPAC days.
10:44: Perry and Romney astutely compliment Paul because it’s safe to do so because they know that Paul has no chance of winning but they want his supporters to support them if they win the nomination.
10:45: Gingrich is effusive in his praise for other candidates and comes across as sincere because he’s been complimentary of his opponents throughout the race.
10:46: Paul’s only compliment for his opponents was that they complimented him. Not very classy.
10:47: Is Bachmann capable of giving an answer that’s not a bumper sticker slogan?
10:49: Reverse mortgage commercial featuring Fred Thompson. I wonder if the debates in 2015-16 will have commercials featuring Rick Perry….
10:51: ABC declares Newt Gingrich the winner, then engages in class warfare against Romney by pointing out that most Iowans couldn’t afford to make a $10,000 bet.
My assessment:
Newt Gingrich – Won the debate by appearing strong and principled and by addressing his opponents’ attacks calmly, substantively, and with class. He also benefits from a subpar performance by Romney.
Mitt Romney – Came across as stiff and programmed and a bit defensive. Probably his weakest performance of the year at the time it mattered the most.
Ron Paul – Same ol’ Ron Paul. His supporters will love what they heard, and everyone else will continue to disregard him.
Rick Perry – Probably his best performance, but that’s not saying much. He comes across as a sincere conservative, but he still rambled too much and did not inspire confidence in him as a candidate to go up against Obama. Given the major investment he’s made in Iowa, he might exceed expectations, but it’s still doubtful he’ll break into the top 3, and he has no path to victory after Iowa.
Michelle Bachmann – She actually did pretty well in distinguishing herself from “Newt Romney” as the “real” consistent conservative, but it’s too late. She’s not going to get the second look that she’s seeking, and poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire will end her candidacy.
Rick Santorum – He did very well in this debate. If Newt makes a major stumble, Santorum just might have positioned himself to get a solid look from the 3/4 of Republican voters who are looking for an alternative to Romney. But Newt is not likely to stumble and give Santorum that opening. If Santorum had performed this well earlier on, he might be where Newt is now.
Bottom line: Newt solidified his frontrunner status, and the race is now his to lose.
