That’s the impression one might get from this Rasmussen poll of likely voters. According to Scott’s numbers:
…46% of the state’s Likely Voters would cast a ballot for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 45% would opt for President Obama. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.
It’s really a tie between the two. But this match-up assumes a great deal, including the not insignificant fact that several other Republicans prefer their names to be on the 2012 general election ballot. The Weekly Standard’s write-up of the poll teases out the numbers for Rick Perry, who “trails Obama by double-digits (50 to 40 percent).”
This gap gives added currency to the notion that this race, all along, has been Romney’s to lose. Republicans may sometimes talk in bold terms during primary season, but recent history shows that they tend to pick the guy who fell just short the last time out (with the notable exceptions of Barry Goldwater in 1964 and George W. Bush in 2000…to the chagrin of those of us who still hold a candle for Steve Forbes).
Mike Huckabee, you missed your chance.
History aside, Romney is in no way assured of victory. But there are cracks developing in the campaigns of the other Republican challengers. Perry’s debate performances make one pine for the crispness of George W. Michele Bachmann may flame out long before the Iowa caucuses. Jon Huntsman remains a press favorite, but struggles, like Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, with that most unforgiving of foes, the margin of error. Herman Cain is making noises and headway, and has even pushed some to claim this a three way race between him, Romney and Perry. Or at least it is this week.
And then there’s Ron Paul. He polls well. Jon Stewart gurgles over him. His supporters are fiercely loyal and I even cast my first presidential vote for him in 1988. But he won’t be the nominee.
All of this would seem to mean things look fairly good for Romney. But then again, things looked mighty good for John McCain in 2000.
Right up until the Virginia primary.
