When looking at the ridiculously gerrymandered redistricting map produced by Virginia’s Senate Democrats, everyone knew what they were trying to do: draw the lines however necessary to retain their slight majority. (If they could not tell, Sen. Dick Saslaw was glad to remind everyone of that fact, too.) One could even be forgiven for looking at the map and mistaking it for the work of a kindergartner.
The Democrats hoped to use the occasion of redistricting to eliminate at least one of the Senate’s most conservative members by placing both Steve Newman and Ralph Smith within the borders of the newly reconstituted 23rd District. But just as they say “The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry”, it appears this plan is also going awry:
On Thursday evening at the Roanoke County Administration Building in Salem, Sen. Ralph Smith—accompanied by Congressmen Bob Goodlatte and Morgan Griffith—is expected to announce that he will be moving into the 19th Senate District. By leaving the 23rd, Sen. Smith will avoid a costly and divisive intra-party fight with the district’s current senator, Steve Newman.
The 19th District is currently represented by another Republican, Bill Stanley, who was elected in January to fill the seat vacated by Congressman Robert Hurt. Sen. Stanley saw his district change dramatically: the old 19th was principally a Pittsylvania County-Danville-based district that also extended into portions of Campbell and Franklin Counties. After redistricting, the 19th lost most of these localities in its shift to the west, now extending from Smith Mountain Lake to Wytheville.
Rumors have been swirling that Sen. Stanley would be rejoining his former constituents by moving “just about 10 minutes down the road” to a property that he already owned in the 20th District. Tomorrow he will make it official at an event in Danville. Stanley’s move, coupled with his campaign’s recent hire of master Republican campaign strategist Chris LaCivita and Stanley’s own vigorous campaign style, could mean headaches for the district’s 14-year, Democratic incumbent Roscoe Reynolds.
Reynolds, who consistently bests his opponents by double-digit margins, will find himself campaigning in a district that is slightly more Republican Democratic than it was four years ago. Before Bill Stanley can challenge Sen. Reynolds, he must first win the Republican nomination, which is being challenged by Reynold’s 2007 opponent Jeff Evans.
Ultimately, despite their best efforts when drafting a redistricting plan, the Senate Democrats might find themselves in the minority next year—looking across the aisle at the very senators they hoped to eliminate: Newman, Smith and Stanley—and that would be just deserts indeed.
UPDATE: Many thanks to commenter Steve Vaughan (a nice guy for a Democrat!) for recommending that I review the Virginia Public Access Project’s website where I discovered that, based upon the way the new 20th Senate District has be drawn, it is, indeed, more Democratic–7.1 percent more Democratic. That having been said, Bob McDonnell won 59.6 percent of the vote in the reconfigured 20th District in 2009. Assuming a strong challenge by the eventual Republican nominee, a solid ground game and comparable turnout, an upset is not improbable. Whether Bill Stanley, Jeff Evans or someone else entirely is the best candidate to mount that challenge is a decision for 20th District residents. One important number to keep in mind, though: 40 percent of Bill Stanley’s old 19th Senate District is now situated in the 20th District.
