With redistricting completed at the legislative level and off to the judiciary, there’s soon to be a large number of candidates announcing for various seats around the Commonwealth. While many Republican candidates have already announced their intentions in southwest and northern Virginia, Hampton Roads remains largely silent. The only substantive rumor circulating was that Virginia Beach State Senator Frank Wagner may move to Newport News and challenge State Senator John Miller, allowing Delegate Chris Stolle to move up.
That rumor failed to pan out as Wagner announced his intent to run for reelection, as well as Stolle, but provides an opening for former 2nd District Republican nomination candidate Bert Mizusawa to run for the right-leaning seat on the Peninsula, the 1st State Senate district.
Formerly a solid Republican seat, the 1st had an intra-party dispute in 2007 with Patricia Stall challenged and defeated incumbent Marty Williams at the time. Despite the victory, Stall fell short in the general election, giving Miller the win and helping Democrats take a majority in the State Senate. After redistricting, Democrats cushioned the seat with solid Democratic precincts, moving the district from 63.3% for Governor McDonnell in 2009 to what would have been 54.3%. In spite of that Democratic cushion, the seat remains solidly in play for Republicans, particularly for a candidate with a strong resume.
Mizusawa, who’s resume stood out last year during the 2010 2nd District nomination campaign, is well positioned to recapture the Republican leaning seat. Given his extensive resume, intellect and fundraising network, Bert is the only high-profile potential candidate in the district. With Wagner remaining in Virginia Beach, Bert Mizusawa has a clear path to both the nomination and victory in the general election. Bearing Drift endorsed Mizusawa last year in the 2nd District and has included his name in out 2012 poll questions for US Senate. However, given George Allen’s near lock-up of the race already, the best possible outcome for Bert Mizusawa would be to run for the 1st State Senate district.
On the southside, Democrat State Senator Ralph Northam has had his district improved by the Democratic Caucus as well. Despite Republican intentions to flip Northam to the GOP caucus, Northam remains a D, voting along party lines for the foolhardy original redistricting plan as well as buffering Democratic measures to stop the conservative movement in the state. While former 87th House of Delegates candidate Jon Amiral plans to run for the nomination, former 2nd District candidate Ben Loyola is contemplating running in the race as well, sources indicate.
While the 2nd District race was Loyola’s first foray into running for office, his experience and performance makes him a solid fit for the 6th Senate District. His entrepreneurial background and his financing abilities as well as his military background help position him as the strongest potential candidate. Additionally, the majority of the 6th District is within the 2nd Congressional district, so Loyola has the added advantage of connections, loyalties and network from last year’s campaign.
Both men were faithful surrogates for Scott Rigell after he won the nomination last year, despite the tough final month of the Republican primary. As such, Rigell and the Republican Party of Virginia would be more inclined to support both financially and logistically a campaign from both men.
Given that the Republicans only need two seats in order to take the majority back in the State Senate, having two former 2nd District candidates in strong positions to capture that majority on their own shows the conservative strength of the Hampton Roads area.
Here’s hoping that both Bert Mizusawa and Ben Loyola decide to formally throw their hats in the ring and help the Republican Party take back a full majority in the state government.
