Continuing our profile of Northern Virginia House and Senate races (see prior posts here and here )with a closeup on Senate races in Loudoun and Prince William. While last year’s census showed Virginia experienced 13% population growth overall, these counties exploded. Loudoun grew by 84% since 2000 and Prince William grew by 43%, making these the two fastest growing counties in the Commonwealth.
The growth – along with a Senate determined to draw Democrat-friendly districts – fueled massive changes in district lines.
Looking at the Senate:
31st – Open
The re-drawn 31st district contains new precincts in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun. Incumbent Democrat Mary Margaret Whipple announced her retirement in late February, leaving an open seat and a possible Republican pickup. Businesswoman Caren Merrick has announced for the Republican nomination and has already raised $93,000 (as of the last filing period). Barbara Favola, Arlington County Board Member, and Jaime Areizaga-Soto, attorney with the USAID, are both seeking the Democratic nomination. Delegate Patrick Hope decided not to enter the race and blogger Ben Tribbett briefly flirted with declaring his candidacy as well, before deciding not to run, complaining of pressure from Senator Saslaw. Areizaga-Soto’s entry into the race reportedly displeased Whipple and Saslaw, who favor Favola.
33rd – Mark Herring (D)
The 33rd district has shrunk, now stretching from Chantilly to Leesburg and centered around the Dulles Airport. Incumbent Mark Herring is likely to face Patricia Phillips in the general election. Currently, it does not appear that either candidate will have to compete for their party’s nomination. This district voted for Obama by 59% and for McDonnell with 55%, making it clearly winnable for either party; however Herring has a massive cash advantage going into the race.
13th – Open
The all new 13th district appears to have a surplus of Republican candidates. Former Delegate Dick Black is moving into the district and has been fundraising for months already. Bob Fitzsimmonds, who was drawn out of Chuck Colgan’s district, is also seeking the Republican nomination and Prince William Board of Supervisor’s member John Stirrup is rumored to be looking at the seat as well. No Democrat has yet filed to run for this seat.
27th – Jill Vogel (R)
The 27th has moved south, now including only 3 Loudoun precincts, and taking in parts of Stafford, Winchester City, Culpepper and Fauquier. Vogel is currently the only candidate who has filed to run in this solid Republican district.
29th – Chuck Colgan (D)
The 29th was drawn with incumbent Chuck Colgan in mind. Now centered around Manassas City and Manassas Park, the new 29th district runs from Dumfries to Rt. 29. This will be a difficult – but not impossible – seat for an energetic Republican challenger to capture. So far, no Republican has announced for the seat.
28th – Richard Stuart (R)
The 28th includes precincts in Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Westmoreland Counties. Stuart is the only candidate who has filed for this district so far.
This is a general overview of Senate races in NoVA, particularly Loudoun and Prince William Counties. Please add your insights, predictions and thoughts in the comments.
