Most Presidents elected once get elected twice if they want to be.
That’s simply a fact of history. George H. W. Bush. Jimmy Carter. Herbert Hoover. William Howard Taft. In the past 100 years, they are the only ones who lost General re-elections after being elected President.
They have a few things in common. Primary challengers. Down economies for most of them.
Meanwhile, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower – two terms, and electoral counts stronger the second time.
Now, anyone who thinks military victories guarantee re-elections have a whole host of reasons to feel stupid. Voters have pretty short memories for wins and pretty long memories for losses.
But one has to hand Obama kudos for bin Laden’s demise.
If Obama gets a clear nomination path, which he appears to be assured, a growing economy may be all he needs to ice his re-election. No President in over 100 years has lost re-election in similar circumstances.
Now, the economic outlook is by no means secure. Obama’s health care law has yet to kick in. Obama has only talked about raising taxes, and not actually done it, and with the House in Republican hands, I can’t see how he can. Energy costs look like it could squeeze the economy back to a recession with little nudging, but they already have leaped in the past year, and America’s handling it ok so far.
Hey, at least we know most two-term Presidents are followed by a President of an opposite Party. That’s 2016. As far as 2012, any overconfident Republicans should think again.
