On the eve of President Obama’s campaign stop in Charlottesville, SurveyUSA released its last poll of the 5th Congressional District race and it shows Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt leading both incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello and the DCCC-supported independent Jeff Clark.
Sen. Hurt breaks 50 percent, whereas Rep. Perriello remains stuck in the low-40s. Perhaps the most interesting snapshot revealed in this poll is the fact that, despite the DCCC’s efforts to promote Jeff Clark’s independent candidacy, Clark’s two percent support is unchanged from SUSA’s previous poll of the 5th District race. This poll does contain a silver lining for 5th District Democrats: Perriello leads among early voters (possibly the result of liberal activists that have flooded the district to get-out-the-vote for Tom Perriello), has a plurality of women and a majority of voters in the 18-39 and 50-64 age brackets. Perriello has also gained ground among lower income voters (defined by SurveyUSA as anyone earning less than $50,000). Hurt’s lead is the result of his strong support from men, independents, 35-49 year-olds, senior citizens and voters who describe themselves as the most enthusiastic about voting. Despite the NRA’s endorsement, Rep. Perriello loses gun owners 60-35.
Despite the toplines, Robert Hurt’s strong performances in the past three debates, some very hard-hitting ads from conservative-aligned groups and the general political environment, Tom Perriello is still very much in this race. The winner may yet be determined by whose get-out-the-vote operations are most effective on Tuesday. Yet, one other person looms large over this race as it enters the final weekend: President Barack Obama.
As reported by CNN, the president will be in Charlottesville later today for a “thank you visit“. This visit has left commentators at NPR and even MSNBC scratching their heads: if the midterms have become a referendum on the Obama Administration, how is it helpful for a vulnerable Democratic incumbent (who is attempting to recast himself as an independent voice) who represents a district in which the president is deeply unpopular, to have that same president come in to campaign for him? It is telling that President Obama will be in Charlottesville, arguably the most liberal locality in the 5th District–a city the president won in 2008 by more than 50 points. A presidential visit could animate disheartened Democrats and/or UVa students to turnout for Perriello, and SurveyUSA shows that while the most enthusiastic voters break for Hurt, the second most enthusiastic voters go for Perriello. Big time. Barack Obama could motivate these voters, making Tuesday’s final numbers much closer than what SurveyUSA is showing today. At the same time, this isn’t 2008; President Obama has lost the Midas touch. For 5th District voters already wary of the Obama-Pelosi agenda, the image of Barack Obama standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Tom Perriello might reinforce in their minds the image of “Party Line Perriello” that Robert Hurt has been trying to convey since announcing his candidacy. Images are difficult to forget…especially while waiting to vote, but if Republicans want to win this seat, they cannot afford to leave anything to chance.
