Can Morgan Griffith Overcome Rick Boucher’s Incumbency and Cash Advantage?

House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith has been touted as the best chance to unseat 9th District Representative Rick Boucher in some time. Boucher has been entrenched in his seat since he ousted long-term Congressman Bill Wampler in 1982. I grew up in that district and have long said, because of Boucher’s skill and attention to constituent services, that the seat is his as long as he wants it.

But could that change this year?

Boucher, while far to the left of most 9th District residents has had the favor of the coal industry. But that has changed with Boucher’s support of cap and trade legislation which threatens economic disaster to far Southwest Virginia’s main source of income.

Don’t take my word for it, consider the statement from then candidate Barack Obama.

“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”

Calling Rick Boucher a liberal (because his is) has never been successful in the 9th because he does take care of his constituents. But this time, he’s voted for legislation that could take food off their tables. Will that be enough for Griffith?

Griffith faces an uphill battle because he’s not “from” the 9th, but from nearby Salem. Still he’s well known and an agressive campaigner.

In the most recent fundraising reports Griffith outraised Boucher bringing in $259,000 to Boucher’s $248,000. But Boucher has a cash on hand balance of round $2 million. While Roanoke, Bluefield and Bristol aren’t expensive television markets like Northern Virginia and Tidewater, there’s still a lot of territory to cover.

Real Clear Politics has the race in the Fightin’ 9th as a toss up. Bob McDonnell carried the 9th District with 66% of the vote. A year earlier, while Virginia turned blue for the first time in decades, the 9th District gave John McCain 59% of the vote. But, running unopposed that year, Boucher received 97% of the vote.

In spite of the protestations of Nancy Pelosi, signs are pointing to massive Republican gains in November. Will Virginia’s Fightin’ 9th be among them?

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