Well, the happy, lazy summer days are gone.
Rasmussen Reports has just released their latest poll calling the race a “toss up.”
This is not a surprise to anyone here. Least of all Brian Kirwin about a month ago:
Deeds hasn’t told anyone what he’d do as Governor, other than decide what to do once he’s Governor. If he actually decides to start campaigning, the gap could close quickly.
….
More likely we’ll see a giant onslaught of attack ads trying to make McDonnell look like some caricature of himself and try to win the way Deeds won the primary…by being the one with the least negatives.
….
So while Republicans are enjoying a wide lead, we should pretend like it’s a 5 point race. Engage your neighbors. Write letters to the editor. Help your local Republican candidates. Tell people why you support Bob McDonnell.Let’s not relax until the last vote is cast.
Well, now it’s a two point race among likely voters. The attack ads materialized. And kicking-it is no longer an option.
Here’s a couple things to take solace in:
1) Not all these folks are going to vote. Pure and simple. Republicans are still hungry and turnout post presidential elections is certainly not as large. So, this should still be to the GOP advantage.
2) McDonnell still has a 54% favorable and Deeds just got to 50%. This despite all the hits on McDonnell.
3) McDonnell is very strong with the base:
McDonnell’s support remains a bit more solid than Deeds’. Eighty-one percent (81%) of those who plan to vote for the Republican candidate are certain they will not change their mind. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Deeds supporters say the same. Among those who are certain, McDonnell leads by seven percentage points.
4) The president’s favorability is below 50% and a whole slew of national issues are still ticking-off the electorate.
So, what does this poll tell us?
What we always knew – it’s a long campaign and Democrats and the Washington Post will stop at nothing to win it.
We should do the same. I know Bearing Drift will. And we do our research.
Also blogging: Virginia Virtucon and The Write Side
