Time Magazine had an interesting article this week about why Virginia is a battleground state this November. The article focuses primarily on the shifting demographics of suburban DC counties like Prince William that are experiencing dramatic increases in economic and ethnic diversity. However, it may not be these new residents that are putting this region in play as much as it is the longer tenured folks they have replaced at the bottom of the economic ladder.
Consider this article in light of Michael Barone’s recent observations about Pennsylvania. Barone’s hypothesis about the collapse in housing prices hurting McCain in the Philly suburbs could well be applied to the swath of “McMansions” mentioned in Time’s article about Virginia. As folks at the lower end of the economic spectrum caught the wave of economic growth and became upwardly mobile, they were replaced in their old homes by the new demographics. As Barone points out, those older, smaller homes had less value to begin with and thus were less affected by the mortgage and real estate collapse.
Thus, if Barack Obama has success in PWC and Virginia at large, it may be due more to economic factors than ethnic ones. Just something to think about as you watch the returns come in on Tuesday night.
