Fimian’s Fans

Can Keith Fimian beat the odds?

It’s looking more and more probable.

Here in Northern Virginia, losing Tom Davis in the 11th District had left a lot of us uncertain about the future of our Congressional delegation. We all admired his intelligence and political savvy. Conservatives who weren’t impressed with Davis’s voting record nonetheless conceded that he was a team player – especially when it came to electing other Republicans in NOVA. Whether they agreed with them or not, conservative Republicans also knew that Davis’s pragmatic moderate stances kept him electable in a district that was trending left.

After Sen. JMDD lost her seat, perhaps Davis could read the handwriting on the wall — it was going to be harder and harder to keep his seat… — Or maybe he just wanted a new challenge and, after Gilmore made sure he wouldn’t be our Senate nominee, the opportunity to cash in on private sector opportunities was too much to resist.

Republicans in NoVA eagerly watched the Byrne / Connolly Democratic primary. It was pretty rough but they didn’t totally destroy each other.

Enter the only set of facts which could keep this race competitive right down to the wire:

Fact set 1:

The 11th is trending Democrat,

the year is looking quite rough for Republicans generally,

and the Democrat party has indicated that Virginia is a top target

Fact set 2:

The Democrat nominee has a reputation for staying barely ethical (to be generous) in his dealings with big Fairfax developers.

The Republican nominee is a political outsider, a businessman with a reputation as “Mr. Clean.”

The Republican nominee had no competition and was quickly embraced by the conservative and moderate wings of the party — everyone from Ken Cuccinelli to John Warner

Although his organizational advantages and developer money keep giving him the advantage in County Chairman’s races, the Democrat nominee has also made some rather inflexible enemies – even within his own party.

The Republican is an incredibly adept fund raiser.

Going into the Fall campaign season, the Republican nominee – Keith Fimian – though a virtual unknown – has already established himself as the man to beat. The Democrat nominee – Gerry Connolly – is struggling against high negatives.

Fimian has a better website than Connolly (actually the most advanced site I’ve seen in Virginia politics so far), has the first TV ad, more money being spent more wisely, a more active staff, and he comes off as confident and honest as a boyscout when you talk with him.

Fimian’s fans may just have picked a winner…