As Trump Burns, So Goes Comstock? Not really

One of the emerging talking points for the 2016 presidential election is how toxic the coattails of Donald Trump will turn out to be. In Virginia’s 10th District, Congresswoman Barbara Comstock is in a tough reelection fight with DC resident LuAnn Bennett. With Democrats looking likely to take the Senate, there’s murmur the Democrats may also take the House, though that looks increasingly unlikely.

However, Trump for Virginia Chairman (down just 12 points in today’s poll!) John Fredericks had a bold retaliatory electoral prediction in the 10th District race today:

Upset Special Prediction: @LuAnnBennett will defeat @BarbaraComstock in #va10 House race. You can only sell out your base so much…

— John Fredericks (@jfradioshow) October 27, 2016

HOT TAKE!

Except, let’s consider the circumstances.

Comstock was among the first to publicly repute Trump’s sexual misconduct remarks. Comstock has been repeatedly distanced herself from the Trump campaign. This looks more like retribution from a campaign lashing out more than intelligent political predictions, as our editor Brian Schoeneman said to Frederick on Twitter today.

.@jfradioshow @BarbaraComstock You said she sold out the GOP. How? Not supporting Trump, right? Come on. It’s transparent what you’re doing.

— Brian W. Schoeneman (@BrianSchoeneman) October 27, 2016

Fredericks may consider that ‘selling out the base’, yet Comstock remains by all accounts Virginia’s top legislator in Congress, with the upcoming departures of Rigell and Forbes when Congress comes to session in 2017. In most years, Bennett would be left in the dust. By all indications, in any other year, this wouldn’t be much of race. Consider:

1) Bennett does not live in the district. She is a carpet-bagger in every sense of the word.
2) She’s lied about her background. Her campaign biography noted work for false charity leadership positions.
3) She’s actively claiming Obamacare has lowered health costs, in the face of overwhelming evidence. Indeed, as Governor McAuliffe seeks Medicaid expansion for the fourth consecutive year, more and more states are dealing with overwhelming rising costs. Repeating the lowered costs claim got her laughed at in front of district community and business leaders.

Despite this, and an anemic campaign, Trump’s disastrous performance in Virginia has dogged Comstock’s campaign. Comstock has executed a flawless campaign, and the odds remain in her favor. Comstock leads at the edge of the margin of error in the best-case scenario, from an internal Democratic poll.

The only chance that Comstock loses would be a further declining Trump campaign, putting Fredericks in the classic rock and a hard place scenario.

In order for his prediction to come true, Trump would have to further implode, with more damaging leaks, audio, etc. But, because Trump runs from nothing (nothing!), and continues to funnel wasted millions into the Commonwealth, shoring up his numbers gives Comstock a better than even chance at holding her seat.

At best, this is a lame attempt at generating a shock reaction. At worst, it’s pettiness. The most likely scenario? Retaliation from a campaign on its last legs.