As Republican candidates make moves towards official announcements, the long presidential primary season looks to begin. As a state with 13 electoral votes, and a recent history of flipping between blue and red, Virginia looks poised to be a key player in selecting the new occupant of the White House in 2016.
That is, of course, if RPV and State Central don’t shoot themselves in the foot first.
As you may have heard, the Republican State Central Committee has been floating trial balloons about a convention as a presidential nomination method. Most recently discussed in the National Review, where new-Chairman John Whitbeck let those naysayers know that ‘nothing has been decided.’
Virginia GOP Chairman John Whitbeck is quick to emphasize that nothing has been decided yet, and that no final decision is expected until autumn. He says that contrary to coverage suggesting that the state GOP is deciding between a primary and a nominating convention, they are actually considering four options: a mass meeting, a party canvas, a convention, or a state-run primary. A mass meeting is roughly analogous to a caucus, where participants must attend local meetings and cast votes at the end. A party canvas is like a primary, but it isn’t run by the state, and it often uses fewer polling places, sometimes just one site per county.
Fact of the matter is, three of these options are non-starters as far as a national campaign would be concerned. For the lynch-pin Virginia is in 2016, handicapping any presidential candidate in data collection and running a statewide campaign would make the Republican Party a laughingstock within the Republican National Committee and most presidential campaigns. Virginia would go from a key part of the 2016 nomination contest, with visits from nearly all candidates, to an afterthought not worth the time or effort required to participate.
Factions have visions of Rand Paul visiting, say, an Augusta County Mass Meeting, Ben Carson at maybe the Hampton City Mass Meeting, Jeb Bush in Alexandria, Marco Rubio in Virginia Beach, and the list goes on and on. RPV sets whopping $250,000 candidate filing fees, and with 16 people running, the Republican Party of Virginia makes an instant $4 million.
In reality?
2016. Republican committees have dozens of surrogate staff/volunteers making random appearances and there’s little to no effort by any campaign to get signatures or identify general election voters. This reduces the likelihood of Virginia flipping red in the fall, making it all the more likely Virginia goes blue for the third time in 12 years. Only two to four well-funded campaigns are in a position to participate in the convention and just two actually make it, having lost South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.
2017. Because no list of likely Republican voters were identified, the statewide GOP ticket is forced to work with outdated information at best, recreating it’s lists from scratch at worse. It is virtually assured that candidates are then selected in a statewide convention. With little voter identification, money raised or name ID, the GOP is at risk of losing every statewide office for consecutive election cycles for the first time in nearly 25 years.
Jamie Radtke has an incredibly skewed five-point analysis over on the website she writes for occasionally, designed to cater to those already supporting conventions.
Her arguments generally are:
1) A crowded field means a ‘very likely’ chance of someone winning a primary with 25% of the vote.
2) Democrats will vote Republican!
3) Convention has to happen anyway
4) Not a silver bullet for a general election win.
5) Primary means no money for the party, and no voter lists.
Thankfully, these are all pretty baseless, propaganda style arguments, and all are easily refuted.
1) A crowded primary field: This was disproven in 2012, when a field that will look very similar to 2016 was running for office. In that year, with numerous candidates, most failed to properly get on the ballot in Virginia. By May or June of 2016, most candidates will have long since dropped out of the race, unlike 2012, where Romney continued to limp in. In 2008, despite a field of 8 candidates, just two made it to Virginia’s primary election day. This is the most likely scenario for 2016.
2) The lie about crossover voting and voter sabotage continues to be perpetrated, despite being widely ridiculed. Similar to Obama’s birth certificate, it’s the false rumor that never goes away.
Here’s a detailed report on the falsities in crossover voting that concludes:
1. There is very little crossover voting in general in United States primaries;
2. The difference in the level of crossover voting between states with open
primaries and closed primaries is not substantively large;
3. The amount of strategic thinking on the part of voters is extremely small.
Although extensive instances of crossover voting in open primaries has been documented, scholars have never found empirical support for the allegation that considerable mischievous crossover voting occurs in such circumstances, sufficient to alter outcomes.
Even if Democrats vote in a Republican primary, all evidence proves that it would not impact the results.
3) That it’s inevitable anyway is the best argument for a convention in 2016, admittedly. A statewide convention does have to take place, to select at-large delegates and RPV leadership. However, given the lack of enthusiasm by any presidential campaign to participate or deal with onerous obstacles/fees, it’s still not a great argument.
4) Nomination methods don’t make a general election win any more or less likely. This argument is just bad. Virginia had caucuses in 1992 and 1996, and both times the Republican nominee lost. And yes, in both instances Virginia selected the eventual nominee, Bush Senior and Bob Dole.
5) The idea of no money for the party (which as Shaun points out, is largely meaningless anyway) and no lists is 100% false. Virginia primaries are open-records for the party, it’s common knowledge that party structures identify likely voters based on primary participation (as well as other factors, donations, magazine subscriptions, etc.)
While I largely support conventions, including for statewide candidates, in presidential year it’s a no-brainer to go with a primary. In order to put the best foot forward and give our nominee the best chance at winning, a primary is the only way to go. It’s the best system for identifying Republican voters for November, it’s the most likely system to get attention from presidential campaigns in the run-up to the primary and overall best for the Republican Party of Virginia. Jamie cites stopping Jeb Bush from winning Virginia with just 20% of the vote, but there’s no history of anything like that ever happening. The last caucus/convention in a statewide presidential contest saw Bob Dole winning over far more conservative Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes and others. Ed Gillespie was ridiculed by some conservatives going into the 2014 convention and still won.
A winning nominee isn’t stopped by the process. The only way to keep Virginia from becoming a laughingstock at worst or simply ignored is to stick with a binding presidential primary.
