One must always take care in analyzing “first-past-the-post” elections, particularly in places like the United Kingdom (and Canada) where a divided left can inflate the strength of conservative voters. Canada’s Conservative Party, for example, has won three consecutive elections (two minorities, one majority) without ever cracking 40% of the vote, and every other party was firmly to its left. For decades – even as Maggie Thatcher was winning three straight parliamentary majorities – the left and center-left divided its popular majorities. The last time center-right and right-wing parties combined for a majority of the popular vote in the UK was 1935…
…that is, until last Thursday.
One of the reasons the Conservative victory was such a shocking result was the assumption that the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) would draw votes away from them. For the first time since the Peelites splt from the 19th Century Conservatives, the right was divided in Britain (Northern Ireland’s unionists – who are mostly right of center – have been split for half a century). Numerous Tories had already complained about UKIP taking enough votes to deny Cameron’s party about 20 seats in 2010 (which would have given him a majority). It was supposed to be much worse this time.
Instead, UKIP established itself as the alternative to Labour in northern England – and obviously did little to slow the Tories down on their way to 331 seats. In fact, the combined strength of the Conservatives, UKIP, and the unionists in Ulster (UUP and DUP) was over 51% – as I mentioned earlier, an eight-decade first.
Moreover, there was the nature of the Conservative campaign itself. Cameron et al did more than just try to scare voters about Labour and the Scottish Nationalist (although they certainly did try – and by most accounts they succeeded). Cameron personally and robustly defended his party’s dramatic welfare reforms, promised future tax cuts, even went so far as to create a British version of Grover Norquist’s no-new-tax pledge (BBC).
David Cameron has vowed to introduce a law guaranteeing no rise in income tax rates, VAT or national insurance before 2020 if the Tories win the election (DJM note: VAT is the British version of sales tax, and national insurance is an income tax top-up for the National Health Service).
The Conservative leader said workers already paid enough tax and he would focus on other ways of clearing the deficit, such as reducing the welfare bill and tackling tax avoidance.
So to recap: the center-right Prime Minister, with the most serious threat to his right flank that his party ever faced (the Peelites were a centrist faction), chooses to run for re-election on a promise of tax reductions and a ban on major tax increases…
…and becomes the first Conservative leader since 1955 to increase the party’s popular vote share despite said right-flank threat taking 13% on its own.
This was a much bigger change then the top-line numbers appear.
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