The British election was set up to be an epic car crash…until the voters took the wheel, looked at the fork in the road, and swerved to the right.
In a result no one foresaw, the Conservatives gained over 20 seats, withstood a quadrupling of the UKIP vote, and won its first parliamentary majority since 1992.
How much of a surprise was it? Less than 18 hours ago, no one was willing to believe an exit poll that had the Tories 10 seats short. Even in Conservative circles, the reaction was disbelief (albeit combined with ecstasy). As it turned out, even that exit poll was over a dozen seats too low for the actual Tory result. It was the first time a government party increased its MP number since 1983, and the first time it increased its vote share since 1974.
Now, even though the result was a surprise, I still say Alberta’s election last Tuesday was more important. However, for those of us on this side of “the pond,” there are some important takeaways.
For starters, if you’re a Democrat and you want to win: Hire. Jim. Messina. He’s always been the quieter half of the Obama machine; Dave Axelrod was usually facing the camera. This time, Axelrod and Messina were on opposite sides, and Messina’s Tories crushed Axelrod’s Labour clients. For those of us geeky enough to remember 2012, it also puts the polling issue of that year (Gallup had Romney up 49%-48% in its final pre-election poll) in an entirely new light (the Tories won 37% of the vote…or at least 3 points higher than any pre-election poll had them). Republicans take note, if you’re up against a Messina client, just move 3 points from your number to your opponent’s…and pray that’s all he’s done to you…
…or you could hire Lynton Crobsy. Running a UK Conservative campaign makes herding cats look easy by comparison, but Crosby imposed a discipline that hasn’t been seen on the Tory side since Margaret Thatcher was winning in the 1980s. Unlike Messina, Crosby usually prefers center-right candidates. So, go get him.
As for the UK itself, Prime Minister David Cameron has his hands full. His majority is roughly 10 (out of 650), so there will be quite a bit of tap-dancing just to keep everyone in line…while Scotland sent 56 secessionist MPs to Westminster, ensuring that federalism will be a front-and-center issue even as he tries to wrest back powers from Brussels – assuming he can even do that.
Then again, these are good problems to have. His top three challengers (in terms of vote share) all had their leaders resign due to poor performance. He has done what nearly everyone (including and especially yours truly) thought was impossible.
Oh, and if you are a Democrat running for office, Jim Messina’s price went up 10% while you were reading this.
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