A very, very early presidential candidate snapshot from Quinnipiac shows Virginians know some of the candidate’s names, but not much else:
Virginia is Bush country, as voters give him 42 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent. Other possible matchups, especially with Paul, remain close:
Clinton at 44 percent to Paul’s 42 percent;
44 percent for Clinton to 41 percent for Huckabee;
Clinton edges Christie 44 – 39 percent;
Clinton squeaks by Walker 45 – 40 percent.The Democrat’s lead among women ranges from 11 to 16 percentage points, while men go against her by margins of 4 to 14 percentage points.
Independent voters give Bush a 12 percentage point margin over Clinton, while margins in the other races are too close to call among these key voters.
Clinton gets a narrow 48 – 44 percent favorability rating from Virginia voters, but this is better than Bush or the other Republicans:
36 – 35 percent for Bush;
36 – 38 percent for Christie;
31 – 32 percent for Paul;
36 – 36 percent for Huckabee;
24 – 17 percent for Walker with 57 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.Because of Jeb Bush’s family ties, 35 percent of Virginia voters are less likely to vote for him, while 9 percent are more likely and 55 percent say it won’t make a difference.
Only 21 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton because of her husband, while 16 percent are more likely and 62 percent say it will make no difference.
The fact that Hillary Clinton would be the first woman president makes no difference in their vote, 76 percent of Virginia voters say.
“Virginia, which was once a solidly red state before it tipped to President Barack Obama, now seems to hold some promise for Republicans running against Hillary Clinton,” Brown said.
Yes, it’s a rich tapestry of name ID.
The only real bit of information we should take from this poll is the title: “2016 Presidential Swing State Polls.”
This means Virginians will be polled, prodded and pushed…to the point of distraction…long before the 2016 presidential campaign is done.
Paul Goldman and I wrote about Virginia’s pivotal role in the upcoming presidential sweepstakes back in November:
As Virginia goes, so goes the 2016 GOP presidential nominee’s chances. No Republican in the modern era has won the White House without carrying Florida, Ohio — and Virginia.
Of the three, Virginia should be the more difficult challenge.
Win here, or go home.
