Events, dear boy, events. – Quote attributed to British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan, explaining what was most likely to send governments off course; whether he said it or not, he proved it – getting bounced from office via the Profumo scandal.
Welcome to the Chaos Theorem, Political version #45782: the vaccination “debate.”
It all began when Governor Chris Christie, asked a question about vaccination in the wake of a California measles outbreak, promptly gave a balanced yet not-so-polished answer (CNN):
“All I can say is that we vaccinate ours. I think it’s much more important as a parent than as a public official, and that’s what we do,” he told reporters during his trip to England on Monday. He went on to say that’s “part of making sure we protect their health and public health.”
“I also understand that parents need to have some measure of choice as well. So that’s a balance the government has to decide,” Christie added.
Asked whether he was advocating leaving parents the option to not vaccinate their kids, Christie said “I didn’t say I’m leaving people the option,” but that “it depends what the vaccine is, what the disease type is and all the rest.”
“And so we have to have that conversation. [It] has to move and shift to disease type. Not every vaccine is created equal. Not every disease type is as great a public health threat as others,” Christie said.
New Jersey Democrats – desperate to land a glove on the Governor after the fizzle-out of “Bridgegate” – pounced on the “parents need to have some measure of choice.” Senator Paul tried a similar tack to Christie – unsuccessfully, in my view (Jim Geraghty) – and we were off to the races with a raging debate on…vaccines.
Wait a minute, vaccines? For those of us who grew up with the phrase “iron lung” (and for me it was only second hand), the idea of a vaccine debate is utterly ludicrous. That said, it helps to remember just how vaccinations are “imposed” on the populace at large.
As Tim Carney (Washington Examiner) pains to point out, “48 states allow parents to opt out for religious reasons or other personal beliefs.” So we’re not talking about a national mandate, or even a state one in most cases. Rather, it is the private sector or local government that “enforces” this (Carney again):
…most current vaccine “mandates” are not simple state compulsion. They are requirements for students who would attend public schools. Even if you think parents have the right to vaccinate or not vaccinate their children, clearly a school’s management — whether it’s a church, a county or a state — has the right to place reasonable requirements on those who would enter.
I can also attest personally that child care facilities generally require them as well (all of the ones I frequented did, and they were all private-sector facilities). In fact, one could say the vaccination “mandate” was an example of civil society acting through custom and freedom of association to spread vaccination nationwide.
That is, until certain elements of the left – led by RFK Jr. – challenged the consensus with data that was, shall we say, faulty. Still, it was enough to ensnare a 2008 candidate of note (Jim Geraghty).
So how did we get from there to here? Well, as I said, Democrats in New Jersey are getting desperate. Bridgegate fell apart, and Governor Christie’s star is on the rise again. As for Paul, while the substance of his comments were close to Christie’s, his tone certainly appeared to be aimed at the non-conformist/anti-vax crowd, despite its left-wing lean…
…or perhaps because of it. The Kentucky Senator has made no secret of his national strategy: namely, reach out to folks who seem way outside the usual Republican spectrum, but (in his view) might be convinced to vote for him. It’s a high-risk/high-reward strategy – and this week we learned what the former means.
As for the “debate” in general, it’s already devolving into violent agreement…(CNN):
When asked whether states should require vaccines by law, press secretary Josh Earnest said Tuesday the President “believes it shouldn’t require a law for people to exercise common sense and do the right thing.”
…and with that, Washington can get back to the budget, and Christie can get back to that state pension problem.
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