The news of Frank Wolf’s retirement caught a lot of folks in Northern Virginia by surprise, but the Republican field that is shaping up hasn’t. Frank Wolf has ably held one of the most coveted Congressional seats in Virginia, a Northern Virginia based seat that is still winnable by a Republican.
The two most credible candidates to replace Congressman Wolf are Delegate Barbara Comstock of Fairfax and State Senator Dick Black from Loudoun. Delegate Comstock announced her candidacy yesterday, and Senator Black announced an exploratory committee two weeks ago, but has not yet entered the race.
I really hope he doesn’t.
Last year I brought up the point that nobody seems to be paying attention to the balance of control in the Virginia State Senate. Both Republicans and Democrats put up statewide candidates that were sitting Senators, and two of those candidates won their elections. That has thrown two State Senate seats into play. And as we saw last night in the nail biter of a State Senate race in the 6th Senate District (which is still undecided at this point), any time you’ve got a low turnout special election, anything can happen, even in seats that are considered “reliable” to one party or the other.
What this means is that any State Senator who is looking to move into another role has to look long and hard at whether that’s a really good idea. The 13th Senate District is not a slam dunk for Republicans anymore. It was barely won by Mitt Romney – 3 points – and it is trending Democratic, as the Eastern sections of Loudoun County have been trending for years. We can’t afford to put this seat in play a year early, especially with Democrats controlling the Governor’s Mansion.
It also doesn’t make a lot of sense for Dick Black, one of the staunchest social conservatives in Virginia, to move from the state level to the federal level. The issues he is most known for, like opposing abortion in all its forms, are really only capable of being dealt with at the state level, not the federal level. His efforts on those fronts would be completely wasted in Congress.
It’s also important to understand the House of Representatives and how power works there. Because of the size of the House, seniority is and remains the primary path to power. Unlike the Senate, where any freshman can come in and make a name for himself, the House is often a waiting game for new members. Those new members who try to jump the line and make names for themselves – usually at the expense of the Republican House leadership – quickly find themselves marginalized. Dick Black, given his age, is simply not in a position to wait the ten to twelve years before he could be reasonably assured of some kind of a leadership position – a committee or subcommittee chair – that would make being in Congress worthwhile, especially given his much larger importance in the Virginia Senate.
Fundamentally, Barbara Comstock is in a much better place to replace Congressman Wolf. There is no harder campaigner in the House of Delegates than Barbara Comstock. She consistently knocks on more doors and raises more money than almost all of her colleagues. A prodigious fundraiser in a very competitive seat, she has demonstrated an ability to raise considerable amounts of money in the two-year time frame that House of Representatives candidates are expected to raise. For her Delegate seat alone she raised over $1.3 million in the 2012-2013 time period, and has raised nearly $3 million since being first elected in 2009. Since 1998, Dick Black has raised $1.9 million, according to VPAP.
Further, the potential loss of a toss-up seat in the House of Delegates – which the 34th is – will not have any real impact on Republican control of the House of Delegates. We will still enjoy a 60+ vote majority. Throw in the fact that she’s fifteen years younger than Dick Black, she is much more likely to be able to wait the ten or more years needed before she’ll be a real player in the House of Representatives.
Virginia has the benefit of an extremely powerful Congressional delegation. With Eric Cantor serving as Majority Leader, Bob Goodlatte as Chair of the Judiciary Committee, Randy Forbes and Rob Wittman as Armed Services Committee subcommittee chairs, having someone who can work to regain Frank Wolf’s seniority in the House (especially on the Appropriations Committee, where Comstock would have a strong claim to Wolf’s vacant slot) is critical. And it goes without saying that in a delegation with no women, having a strong female legislator would be a benefit, as well.
I won’t even bother addressing ideology issues because both Dick and Barbara are solid conservatives, and I don’t see them differing in many substantive ways on policy. Barbara does have the benefit of being one of the few Northern Virginia Delegates who bucked Governor McDonnell on the transportation bill, which should help her standing with folks in the party who can’t abide any tax increases, no matter how meritorious they may be.
Dick Black is a good State Senator and that’s where he’s needed right now. Let’s hope he makes the right decision and sits this one out.
NOTE: This is not a Bearing Drift endorsement of any candidate in the race.
