NBC/Marist: McAuliffe +8, Northam +6

The new NBC/Marist poll of the statewide races is out and the results are…more of the same. Terry McAuliffe leads Ken Cuccinelli by eight points — 46-38 — with Libertarian Robert Sarvis earning nine percent.

There are a couple of interesting nuggets within the poll.

The voter intensity numbers, for example, give hope to Ken Cuccinelli:

60% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor say they strongly support their choice. 32% somewhat support their candidate, and 8% might vote differently. Only 1% is unsure. In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions held these views. 59% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor were firmly committed to their choice while 31% were somewhat behind him. Nine percent said they might vote differently, and 1% was unsure. Among Cucinelli’s supporters, 67% strongly support him while 57% of McAuliffe’s backers express a similar level of commitment to him. In September, 60% of Cuccinelli’s supporters and 59% of McAuliffe’s backers said they would not waver in their commitment to their choice of candidate.

In short, Cuccinelli’s supporters are determined to vote for him, and becoming more so. It’s McAuliffe’s voters who are going soft.

Cuccinelli will need that dogged support, because his negatives are, to be blunt, poisonous:

A majority of Virginia residents — 51% — has an unfavorable view of Cuccinelli. 34% have a positive opinion of him, and 15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Comparable portions of registered voters have these opinions. 53% of registered voters have a negative view of Cuccinelli while 36% have a positive one. 12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

I’m not sure how one wins the governorship — or any office — in the face of such negatives.

But what we do have is an interesting experiment. Can Cuccinelli’s die hards overcome Cuccinelli’s haters? Think of it as a version of the irresistible force v. the immovable object.

Downticket, the poll shows Ralph Northam ahead of E.W. Jackson 48-42.

The full poll analysis and tables can be read here:

Complete+October+2013+Virginia NBC4 NBC++News Marist+Poll+Release+and+Tables

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