For conservatives and Republicans, Sen. Mark Warner is a constant source of pain. How can a man whose political career rests on a foundation made out of tax increases (made possible by Republican votes)…whose Senate career has been dotted with votes for more and more expensive government (Obamacare) still manage to be the most popular politician in Virginia?
It’s really quite simple: every now and then, he confounds his own base and disrupts the Republican narrative.
The most recent example of that behavior can be seen in the series of Senate votes on gun control legislation.
Warner voted for the Manchin-Toomey compromise that would have expanded background checks for firearms purchases. He even issued a statement after that bill failed bemoaning the lack of bipartisan agreement on “common sense” proposals such as this.
But that wasn’t the only gun control vote Warner made that day. On the high-profile assault weapons ban, Warner was one of 16 Democrats who voted “no.” On a proposal to ban high-capacity magazines, Warner was one of 10 Democrats to vote “no.”
Conversely, Warner voted for a measure to protect gun owners’ privacy and he also voted in favor of a Republican-sponsored amendment to grant gun owners’ concealed carry rights across state lines.
These votes – especially on the assault weapons ban – sent Virginia’s progressives into orbit. No way will they vote for this “Republican-lite” pretender (who also supports coal mining) in 2014. He’s a traitor to the cause, a fraud and much worse.
We suspect Warner’s gun control votes were largely political calculations. Recall that after his defeat at the hands of Sen. John Warner in 1996, Mark reinvented himself as a Virginia good ol’ boy, and built a power base for himself in Southwestern Virginia that proved invaluable to him in his 2001 gubernatorial race against Mark Early.
Warner is no fool. Unlike the current crop of statewide Democratic candidates, he knows that rural voters, and those who believe in quaint thing like coal mining jobs and gun rights, are invaluable to any Democrat running statewide. Yes, the Democratic margins will still come out of the urban crescent. But by refusing to write-off the more conservative and rural areas of the state, Warner is prepared for a rainy electoral day. A strong 2014 Republican challenger – Bob McDonnell, for example, or perhaps Bill Bolling — won’t be able to tar Warner as out of touch with the rest of Virginia because his voting record on issues like gun rights will show otherwise.
It’s a formula Warner successfully used in 2004’s great tax fight with Republicans in the General Assembly. House Republicans were the anti-taxers. Senate Republicans were the high taxers. Warner? Comfortably in the middle, seeking merely to raise enough revenue to maintain essential services and defend the state’s AAA bond rating.
It’s a very good thing, then, that the progressives say they are done with Warner. If they wish to challenge him from the left in 2014? Even better. It puts him right where he wants to be – in the middle, the base of all his past political success.
*This article originally appeared in Dead Reckoning, Bearing Drift’s subscription newsletter. To get Dead Reckoning delivered to your inbox twice each week, click here. It’s a steal at just $3 a month!
