The Weather Channel drools as Isaac could be the story of the GOP convention

Is that a tropical bullseye on Tampa? (Via Wxrisk.com)

The conventional wisdom is that the GOP convention in Tampa will be a snooze-fest. Nothing to see here, so let’s all go to the zoo instead. Or more likely, let’s all go to Ybor City and re-enact scenes from Godfather II (Brian would make an excellent Fredo).

The conventional wisdom may be wrong. Again. A potential story is brewing right now. And it has nothing to do with politics. It’s all about 94L, a tropical disturbance churning in the Atlantic, that, if it gets its act together, would be named Isaac. According to some forecast models, Isaac could fall apart. Others say it could reform and sit south Florida. Others still say it will weaken, then reform and smack — Tampa, right during the Republican convention, as a category 3 hurricane.

So should I forget the tie and pack hip waders and extra batteries instead? According to Wxrisk, the storm isn’t likely to hit Virginia (which was an early possibility), Florida, though, could get very wet. Which side? Can’t say. But if you happen to be a member of the Tampa chamber of commerce, there’s no time like now to start working on damage control:

There is of course the possibility that the system could rapidly intensify over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico before it came into the west side of Florida…And there is even a small possibility that the system might end up tracking north of the big islands in the Northern Caribbean and approach the southeast U.S. Coast from the Bahamas. This obviously would pose a much bigger threat to the southeast coast. But these are very small possibilities at this time

The shorter answer: maybe pack along an umbrella. For now. And be glad I bought the flight insurance.

And for the folks here in Virginia…keep an eye on this sucker. Some models have this storm heading our way late next week.

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