Santorum sweep a blessing in disguise for Romney
By Brian Schoeneman | Wednesday, February 8th, 2012 | PoliticsIf Twitter, Facebook and the insta-analysis of the media last night are any indication, Mitt Romney had a horrible night and Rick Santorum has all the momentum moving forward in February. While Santorum did have a good night and his campaign will get a surge of money today, the idea that last night was an unmitigated disaster for Romney is wrong.
It was an unmitigated disaster for Gingrich. Romney, actually, had a pretty good night.
The Romney camp’s biggest fear after South Carolina was that Gingrich or one of the other anti-Romney candidates would be able to force the others out, turning the contest into a one-on-one matchup between Romney and an anti-Romney candidate. Ron Paul gets left out of these discussions because his own base of support is separate from the rest of the Republican electorate and he’s not in the race to win it. In a head-to-head matchup, Romney would have a much tougher path to victory than if the race remained between three.
The pressure was on Rick Santorum after South Carolina, and especially after Florida where he came in third and Nevada where he came in dead last, to get out of the race and clear the field for Newt Gingrich. Gingrich himself suggested Rick get out to allow someone – him – to beat Romney. Gingrich himself has doubled down and backed himself in a corner, declaring he’ll be in this until Tampa. Whether that was his brain or his ego talking, that is one statement he’s made that I will give him the benefit of the doubt on. Gingrich isn’t going to be dropping out.
And that was really the only viable path forward. In a three-way race, Romney is still the front runner and his cash advantage and organization still make it likely that he will be our nominee.
Now that Santorum has swept three states – three states where no delegates were up for grabs and most of the campaigns have spent relatively little time and money – he has no reason to get out of the race. He’s got the momentum. And he can begin to assert pressure on Gingrich to get out. And while Gingrich’s personal dislike of Mitt Romney might be sufficient to tempt him to drop out and support Santorum, his personality won’t let him.
So this means Santorum and Newt both stay in, splitting the anti-Romney vote. Mitt can continue to garner his solid 25% to 45% of the vote in each of these states, and once we hit the winner-take-all scenarios in Super Tuesday, he will be able to pull ahead and win the delegates he needs to gain the nomination in November.
As to the Democratic attacks claiming that Romney doesn’t excite the base and will leave the party fractured- nice try. Fortunately, we have the Great Unifier, Barack Obama, to face in the fall. Whatever damage this primary does will be undone by our party’s fervent desire to replace the President in November. As I have long said, we don’t have to unite the party, the President will do that for us.
Yes, Romney will be forced to go on the offensive, highlighting Santorum’s past record, his votes with the Bush Administration for massive deficit spending, his cordial relationship with labor (a fact that helps Rick in my eyes, not hurts him), his weak stances on illegal immigration and, of course, the social issues. Santorum is the only major candidate up there left that hasn’t had this kind of a vetting, because he’s rarely been more than a statistical error since Iowa. It’s his turn in the spotlight, and that will invite criticism – especially from the left, who find his social conservatism distasteful, to say the least.
Last night’s contests were not the unmitigated disaster for Romney that they’re being made out to be. By dragging out the contest, ensuring that there is no clear alternative to Romney for anti-Romney conservatives to rally around and by marginalizing Newt Gingrich, they’ve helped provide Romney with a clear path to the nomination.
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About the author
A veteran political professional, a long-time Republican party activist and new attorney, Brian W. Schoeneman has been offering his opinions at Bearing Drift since 2010. He serves on the Board of Virginia Line Media, LLC, which operates Bearing Drift and spends his days representing the U.S. Merchant Marine in Washington, D.C. He hails from Fairfax County, Virginia, where he lives with his wife and son.
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23 Responses to "Santorum sweep a blessing in disguise for Romney"
Working folks with working kids are souring on Romney. And, Romney is not a forceful conservative in practice, only in rhetoric.. Its a rich mans world Brian, right?
Gaffe habit prone Mitt Romney is having a hard time not because of his wealth, not because of his generosity, not for his impressive charitable contribututions.. Its the appearance he perpetuates by making seemingly minor gaffes such as “I’ll bet you ten thousand dollars..” or “I’m not concerned about the poor” which he later said was a mis speak oops moment, lends credibility to charges by the grassroots that Romney is out of touch with the common American. His remarks are taken out of context maybe yes, but, he is not registering with people clinging to their middle class working class status. Obama steps in it and the gaffes roll right off but Romney has a history of making gaffes with an economic undertone that don’t shake off too easily.
Mitt is the most capable entreprenurial numbers guy with the most money in the race and people see someone like Mitt they want to oversee their investments, not preside over the heart of America..
I think it’s obvious that Mitt is uncomfortable talking about his money, which I can understand. It’s only been recently that we in America have succumbed to the boorish tendency to talk about how much people make openly. Nobody wants to have somebody else’s wealth lorded over them. It’s clear he’s uncomfortable about it. I can understand that.
I agree that he needs to focus more on connecting with working folks with working kids, but fortunately that’s a problem that both he and Obama have in common. Mr. Price-of-Arugula can’t exactly claim solidarity with the working class, either.
Romney is a classest who doesn’t get the real economy and doesn’t understand real people so, when challenged, you can depend on Romney and his supporters to turn to their core strengths of political thuggery and secretive fund raising. I haven’t seen such a tactically brutal and vicious campaign since the days of CREEP. I wouldn’t want my dear departed mom to know if I was associated with this man.
How is the Romney hit squad going to go after Santorum? They already spent their convicted liar weapon during the Gingrich attacks. Hey, how about putting Santorum’s supporters on an enemies list? That tactic hasn’t been used in a while.
Brian, you are making either a mistake or carrying water for Romney.. you decide. There are Romney supporters and there are social conservatives that you are labeling anti Romney.. I see Ron Paul supporters and anti Ron Paul supporters.. Santorum supporters see Romney as anything but socially conservative, not due to Romney today but Romney while in office. George Allen has a similar problem. While in office, Romney appointed liberal judges and made that mistake more than once.. among other sins.
How’d that vote splitting work out last night? You Romney fanboys need to realize that you’ve lost 5 out of 8. People rejecting Mitt Romney. Clearly that is frightening the Virginia establishment, from the committees to the bloggers.
“It’s only been recently that we in America have succumbed to the boorish tendency to talk about how much people make openly.” It aint bragging if its true. By not admitting he has made a ton of money and talking about how he did it an open would festers.. He will innoculate himself by talking about his success.. He was not a robber barron so I think people have a tendency to wonder and make stuff up when he is not forceful enough. Exposing theself is one facet that Ron Paul excells at unlike no other candidate, not that it helps but there are no surprises and he boors the media with his personal life.. Seems to be a good strategy for the grass roots.
Typo correction: ‘would’ should read ‘wound’.
JR, how about restoring that 5 minute edit feature
Excellent analysis, Brian.
What really matter is the delegate vote count. As of today: Romney 115, Gingrich 38, Santorum 34, Paul 20.
That’s right, Romney has an outright majority of the delegates in a 4-man race and is defeating both Gingrich and Santorum by a 3:1 margin.
We now return to your tea party-sponsored Santorgasm, already in progress….
@ Lets Be Free: you wrote “I haven’t seen such a tactically brutal and vicious campaign since the days of CREEP.”
To be fair to Nixon, the name of the committee was CRP, “Committee to Reelect the President.” It was not styled CREEP until Woodward and Bernstein. You are showing your lack of knowledge here. Thought I guess I can’t fault you, even in the late 70s all of the college text books were calling it CREEP. A total misnomer. It is not your fault that you were taught this, but it is your fault that you are ignorant about it.
This makes me want to take everything else you posit as ignorant as well, though I am certain you have some good points to make, if you make them well and based on facts. Do hone up on accurate history, if you please.
That is to say, your points about Mitt are right, but you are not making them in an accurate way. When you say things like CREEP it blows holes in all four tires.
I’d say much the same to Brian S., but I think he is past the point of redemption.
@Lets Be Free: Further to this. Think about. Who in their right mind, even Nixon, would call a re-election “CREEP”
Goebbles 101. NO.
Turbo-
We may restore comment editing in the future, but because of other technical concerns, that time is not now.
Brian’s spinning this the only way one can if they are pro-Romney. I agree Romney is helped by Gingrich and Santorum splitting the right-wing vote. But the fact that less than half, in some cases only about a third, of Republican voters support him, has to be a concern going into the fall. Will Romney be able to motivate the same Tea-Party led rush to the polls that carried Republicans to victory in 2010? The latest poll has him trailing Obama in Virginia. If Republicans don’t win Virginia (and North Carolina), they don’t win the election. Republican electoral math has counted on a solid South since Reagan in 1980.
between the “three” who are the three? are you doing the mainstream media jig and leaving out Paul? not going to be able to do that come May – he’s the ONLY OTHER candidate on the ballot!
he has his own base apart from the establishment GOP? Romney? shouldn’t that be a reference to Paul? sometimes i wonder where you guys put your brain in the morning before you get out of bed
Thomas, read it again.
Ron Paul has his own base apart from the rest of the Republican electorate. It includes libertarians, disaffected Democrats and others who don’t consider themselves Republican.
He is not in this race to win it, and has admitted as much. He’s not one a single primary or caucus and has never done better than second place. All of the other three have won at least one.
Ron Paul isn’t going to win the nomination and isn’t a front runner.
Craig Kilby,
You have no idea how pompous and stupid you sound when you lambast someone else for using CREEP instead of CRP and then turn around and misspell “Goebbels.” Fail.
Off with my head!
I believe Steve Vaughn has made the most relevant counter argument so far to Brian’s.
To you Romney supporters, it should be of little comfort for your candidate to squeak by and win this nomination by a shallow plurality. The nominee absolutely MUST win with a powerful majority to have any chance of defeating Obama in the Fall. The leading candidate needs to be taking states and delegates by 60%, 70%, or even 80% in the home stretch going into the convention. If Romney continues to lead the pack to Tampa with 55% to 70% of primary voters casting their ballots against him, he will be condemned to spend most of his time and resources during the general election attempting to rally those conservatives behind him instead of taking on his ultimate opponent, the sitting President. Armed with a billion dollar war chest, I’m afraid Obama will make easy work of Mr. Mitt.
Mitt Romney has failed to close the deal with conservatives, and I see little or no chance of that happening, as his record is now too well out in the open and cannot be swept back under the rug.
The Santorum/Gingrich alternatives lack perfection, as virtually all candidates will, but have a better chance of drawing the bulk of the base together, even if having to draw the reluctant establishment along kicking and screaming. Regrettably, I must agree with the assessment of Ron Paul’s position in the race as not as much out to win as to advance a separate agenda. Achieving either the nomination or the White House is not a realistic scenario, and as such is mostly relevant as a potentially very harmful distraction. Paul’s call for an audit of the Federal Reserve, however, has caught on as a credible item under a new potential Republican Presidency. So his supporters should take some pride and satisfaction in that.
The bottom line to me here is both simple and stark. As things stand now, if Romney wins the nomination, Obama stays in the White House. We lose. Period.
The Santorum breakout should be looked at with optimism. The split of the conservative vote, being the majority of the vote, must come to an end soon for this process to advance to a productive and promising conclusion. Everyone wants “their” guy to win, of course, but making sure that Obama doesn’t needs to remain part of the consideration.
Let us pick the best, truest conservative who can win by being the best able to pull the entirety of Republican voters together behind him. Rick Santorum may very well, and quite possibly, be emerging as that very guy.
At the very least, we need to stop trashing our own and treat each other with respect if we expect to take on the most existentially important election of our lifetimes with anything other than a divided army.
Well said Mike.
With Romney as the nominee, and he will be for the simple fact that he has the most money, it is going to be a very sad day for us in November.
As evidenced by the devastating split within the party, most conservatives can’t bring themselves to vote for a closet liberal.
As I have said before, Romney does not need to unite the party behind him. Obama will do that. I find it hard to believe that there are any Republicans out there who would prefer another 4 years of Obama to a Republican they may not be entirely comfortable with.
There’s no real evidence that the base doesn’t turn out if they don’t think the candidate is perfect. We didn’t lose in November of 2008 because of a lack of Republican support for McCain. We lost independents.
Romney has the chance to win independents who are disaffected with Obama – a chance that neither Santorum nor Gingrich really has. Gingrich’s negatives are over 50 percent there. Santorum’s are lower, but that’s mainly because no one has truly attacked him because he has been a non-factor for most of the race. That will change.
Romney is poised to do well in Maine this weekend, as well as Michigan and Arizona next Tuesday. We’ll see what the new narrative is after that.
Also, if you need validation for what I’ve written here, Stu Rothenberg wrote an analysis today that’s very similar to what I wrote here.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/the-hoopla-surrounding-romneys-electability
And you people still ignore Ron Paul.
How rude.. and unrepublican.
Funniest line from today’s CPAC speaches?
“I was a severely conservative Republican governor” – Mitt Romney
Yeah, he appointed some severely liberal judges too while he was severely conservtive republicaning Mass..
Obama will be a two term president.. Thanks Mittbots
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