If Twitter, Facebook and the insta-analysis of the media last night are any indication, Mitt Romney had a horrible night and Rick Santorum has all the momentum moving forward in February. While Santorum did have a good night and his campaign will get a surge of money today, the idea that last night was an unmitigated disaster for Romney is wrong.
It was an unmitigated disaster for Gingrich. Romney, actually, had a pretty good night.
The Romney camp’s biggest fear after South Carolina was that Gingrich or one of the other anti-Romney candidates would be able to force the others out, turning the contest into a one-on-one matchup between Romney and an anti-Romney candidate. Ron Paul gets left out of these discussions because his own base of support is separate from the rest of the Republican electorate and he’s not in the race to win it. In a head-to-head matchup, Romney would have a much tougher path to victory than if the race remained between three.
The pressure was on Rick Santorum after South Carolina, and especially after Florida where he came in third and Nevada where he came in dead last, to get out of the race and clear the field for Newt Gingrich. Gingrich himself suggested Rick get out to allow someone – him – to beat Romney. Gingrich himself has doubled down and backed himself in a corner, declaring he’ll be in this until Tampa. Whether that was his brain or his ego talking, that is one statement he’s made that I will give him the benefit of the doubt on. Gingrich isn’t going to be dropping out.
And that was really the only viable path forward. In a three-way race, Romney is still the front runner and his cash advantage and organization still make it likely that he will be our nominee.
Now that Santorum has swept three states – three states where no delegates were up for grabs and most of the campaigns have spent relatively little time and money – he has no reason to get out of the race. He’s got the momentum. And he can begin to assert pressure on Gingrich to get out. And while Gingrich’s personal dislike of Mitt Romney might be sufficient to tempt him to drop out and support Santorum, his personality won’t let him.
So this means Santorum and Newt both stay in, splitting the anti-Romney vote. Mitt can continue to garner his solid 25% to 45% of the vote in each of these states, and once we hit the winner-take-all scenarios in Super Tuesday, he will be able to pull ahead and win the delegates he needs to gain the nomination in November.
As to the Democratic attacks claiming that Romney doesn’t excite the base and will leave the party fractured- nice try. Fortunately, we have the Great Unifier, Barack Obama, to face in the fall. Whatever damage this primary does will be undone by our party’s fervent desire to replace the President in November. As I have long said, we don’t have to unite the party, the President will do that for us.
Yes, Romney will be forced to go on the offensive, highlighting Santorum’s past record, his votes with the Bush Administration for massive deficit spending, his cordial relationship with labor (a fact that helps Rick in my eyes, not hurts him), his weak stances on illegal immigration and, of course, the social issues. Santorum is the only major candidate up there left that hasn’t had this kind of a vetting, because he’s rarely been more than a statistical error since Iowa. It’s his turn in the spotlight, and that will invite criticism – especially from the left, who find his social conservatism distasteful, to say the least.
Last night’s contests were not the unmitigated disaster for Romney that they’re being made out to be. By dragging out the contest, ensuring that there is no clear alternative to Romney for anti-Romney conservatives to rally around and by marginalizing Newt Gingrich, they’ve helped provide Romney with a clear path to the nomination.
