The tyrant is dead; long live the tyrant
By D.J. McGuire | Monday, December 19th, 2011 | Catch-AllKim Jong-il is dead. Few outside of northern Korea will mourn him (and of those inside who do, I would suspect most do so out of fear of arrest if they don’t). This has led more than a few to ask: what is next for northern Korea? The answer is this: not much of a difference.
That answer will certainly surprise some people, who would think that no one could be worse than Kim Jong-il. This assumption misses several important factors.
First, a regime is always more than one man. Millions have heard of Joseph Stalin, yet few remember Beria, Molotov, or the blood on Nikita Krushchev’s hands. Osama bin Laden’s death did not destroy al Qaeda (although it has been weakened by his passing). The Ba’athist regime in Iraq predated Saddam Hussein’s rise to power, and some of his highest-ranking psychophants are fighting the current Iraqi government today. Kim Jong-il relied on a vicious and brutal military to rule, and groomed his son only too well to match his cruelty (Corner – NRO).
Secondly, Kim did exactly what the Chinese Communists wanted him to do – namely, bring America to the table and extract concessions from her. Despite a slew of leaks supposedly expressing frustration from Beijing at Pyongyang (all of them dutifully reported by media entities drunk on the “engagement” Kool-Aid), Kim was never once truly brought to heel, and for good reason. Every dollar Kim extracted from the Americans freed up 6-8 Chinese renminbi that went to Iran, Syria, various terror groups, or the PLA. If anything, Kim III will be weaker than his father, and thus even more beholden to his de facto colonial administrators. He will do their bidding.
Finally, and most importantly, the free world is weak in northeast Asia, and our enemies know it. Japan is in political flux, again (and I’m being euphemistic); the United States is distracted and uninterested (in contrast to Southeast Asia, where the president is very engaged); and Canada has never been included in the mix. Only South Korea remains concerned, and that nation’s left is recovering from the 2007 wipeout and could retake the country next year. Washington could change the dynamic by working to help dissidents in northern Korea, but it chooses not to do so (and even if it did, it wouldn’t change much in the short term).
In short, don’t expect the regime to be much different after Kim Jong-il’s passing.
Cross-posted to the China e-Lobby
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Former candidate for Board of Supervisors in Spotsylvania, current blogger, economics teacher, and long-rumored windbag. There are two causes closest to the heart: steering the country away from the social democratic nonsense that is sinking Europe, and convincing the rest of the "rightosphere" that the NBA really is a joy to watch.
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8 Responses to "The tyrant is dead; long live the tyrant"
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its been a bad year for my Fantasy Dictator League. should have stuck with Assad.
Kim Jong Eun: Cabbage Patch II. (Not original, I borrowed that from someone over at the Washington Post.)
The biggest difference between Eun and his father is the fact that Cabbage Patch I was 55 when he succeeded his father. Eun is reported to be 28 and doesn’t have the support and loyalty of the NK military, which is dominated by older men of his father’s generation. He might very well attempt to establish his authority and popularity with some sort of military adventurism against South Korea. The near future is very dangerous for northeast Asia.
I sympathize Amit. I had a similar problem when Ghaddafi was eliminated. I had to make a hasty trade for Hugo Chavez. Didn’t want to do that since you lose points when they have in the past pretended to have fair elections.
Britt,
Lucky me. I traded Hosni Mubarak for Ron Paul last summer. Now I’m thinking about trading the Burma Junta for Newt Gingrich. What do you think? After all, they are well past their prime while the Newtster is getting his second breath and third wife.
I’m jealous MD Russ. Ron Paul’s defensive numbers are off the hook! anyone care to trade a Castro/Musaraff pair for a Putin?
Had read somewhere about a year ago that Kim Jong-il relatives would be running the country. The new leader is a figure head.
Also read today that the U.S. government is sounding the alarm after reports that Dutch scientists have created a highly-contagious and deadly airborne strain of bird flu. If this stuff gets loose, it could wipe out 75% to 90% of the world population. There are times that I am glad that I have one foot in the grave.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/12/20/scientists-spark-fears-by-creating-highly-contagious-airborne-strain-bird-flu/#ixzz1h5jk4kgp
SMH at you guys having to trade. I’m holding steady with Alexander Lukashenko.
North Korea, who knows? Does anyone ever know?
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