(Updated Nov. 8 with results) 2011 Election Prediction Contest
By Bearing Drift | Thursday, November 3rd, 2011 | PoliticsThere will be one lucky winner of our General Assembly prediction contest, but if the final results from today’s election turns out like what you collectively have predicted, then Republicans will pick up four state Senate seats today, gain the majority, and Ward Armstrong will have nothing but time to campaign for a statewide seat.
State Senate
1st District:
Mickey Chohany (R) – 41
John Miller (D) – 15
6th District
Ralph Northam (D) – 40
Ben Loyola (R) – 16
13th District
Dick Black (R) – 52
Shawn Mitchell (D) – 4
17th District
Edd Houck (D) – 32
Bryce Reeves (R) – 24
20th District
Bill Stanley (R) – 41
Roscoe Reynolds (D) – 15
21st District
Dave Nutter (R) – 30
John Edwards (D) – 26
22nd District
Tom Garrett (R) – 36
Bert Dotson (D) – 19
29th District
Chuck Colgan (D) – 39 (average margin of victory predicted 5.6%)
Tom Gordy (R) – 15 (average margin of victory predicted 3.5%)
31st District
Barbara Favola (D) – 47
Caren Merrick (R) – 10
36th District
Jeff Frederick (R) – 40
Linda “Toddy” Puller (D) -15
37th District
Dave Marsden (D) – 41
Jason Flanary (R) – 14
38th District
Adam Light (R) – 35
Phil Puckett (D) – 20
House of Delegates
9th District
Charles Poindexter (R) – 45
Ward Armstrong (D) – 10
[gravityform id=2 name=2011Elections Predictions]
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Bearing Drift has been providing an online conservative voice in Virginia politics since 2004. The name describes relative motion at sea - without bearing drift, you need to move to the right to avoid a collision! If it looks like the ship-of-state is going to wreck, move right; you can't go wrong!!!
Comments
4 Responses to "(Updated Nov. 8 with results) 2011 Election Prediction Contest"
Will y’all release the totals for the predictions?
Samuel – absolutely. On Tuesday morning, we’re closing down the poll and I will release the talley of how many for each candidate. I also am keeping a spreadsheet handy to determine the final winner of the contest.
ON DAVID RAMADAN
http://ikhras.com/2011/11/5-issues-david-go-gop-ramadan-refused-to-address-during-campaign/
I don’t feel qualified to pick winners across the state, but here’s a few thoughts:
1. Edd Houck is probably going to win. Whatever else one wants to say about his record, the guy knows how to run a campaign. This district should be R. However, he has had quite the ground operation in the district (I know of one couple who said they have received 6 visits or door hangers at their house in the past 2 weeks), and he’s really worked the ag community. It will be a lot closer than previous elections, but I think he wins.
2. I think Reynolds is a goner. Watch the numbers in Danville. From what I have heard, he’s just not motivated the African-American community.
3. If there is going to be an upset, it will be Bert Dodson. Two weeks ago, I would have said Garrett wins 53-47, but Dodson’s definitely been the most aggressive D in the state in the last two weeks. I don’t know if that push will do any good, but it’s the closest thing you’ll see to an upset. Note: I definte “upset” as something unexpected. To be honest, the climate is still horrible for D’s in the state, so it’s hard to call any GOP victory today an “upset.”
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