*-Cross-posted at NoVa Common Sense.-*
In 2009, I put together a report like this for all the competitive Northern Virginia races. There were approximately as many of them in NoVa as there are statewide this year. Because of that, I’ve decided to go ahead and look at the entire House map. First, a guide to my format:
Candidate: Q2 Raised | Cash on Hand | # of Individual Donors
(The raised amount is taken from total reciepts, which includes contributions, in-kinds, and loans. Where evident, I try to point out various anomolies like huge self-loans or party involvement.)
Fairfax Districts:
Uncontested: HD 35 (Keam), HD 38 (Kory), HD 39 (Watts), HD 40 (Hugo), HD 41 (Filler-Corn), HD 43 (Sickles), HD 44 (Surovell), HD 86 (Rust)
HD 34
Barbara Comstock (i): $112K | $230K | 193
Pamela Danner: $76K | $53K | 303
McDonnell Vote: 57%
Starting off with this race sets an unfair expectation for everyting else on this list, but c’est la vie. Comstock continues with her fundraising juggernaut, while Pam Danner acquits herself well with a strong quarter for a first-time challenger and impressive number of individual donors.
HD 36
Ken Plum (i): $67K | $101K | 183
Mac Cannon: $14K | $11K | 70
McDonnell Vote: 42%
These numbers seem about right for this race.
HD 37
David Bulova (i): $55K | $49K | 208
Brian Schoeneman: $26K | $8K | 101
McDonnell Vote: 53%
David Bulova, shaking off the campaign rust of not having an opponent since six years ago, brings in a modest amount for an incumbent. Perhaps even a little on the low side, given that he’s the only NoVa Dem being seriously challenged. Local hero Brian Schoeneman brings in about half of the incumbent, but with a high burn rate has a lot of ground to make up in cash on hand.
HD 42
Dave Albo (i): $60K | $73K | 60
Jack Dobbyn: $41K | $22K | 105
McDonnell Vote: 58%
Like Danner, Dobbyn does well for a first-time candidate up against a fundraising giant (though half of his money came from one donor). Speaking of which, Albo turns in another strong quarter and has a close to 3-on-1 cash on hand advantage.
HD 67
Jim LeMunyon (i): $46K | $43K | 125
Eric Clingan: $18K | $18K | 75
McDonnell Vote: 58%
Clingan was a late entrant, and his meager haul represents that. LeMunyon is in with a (relatively) weak quarter for an incumbent, but he was chronically outraised in 2009 as well on his way to routing the incumbent by 1,000 votes, and now has two effective years under his belt as a Delegate under his belt to boot.
Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church Districts:
Uncontested: HD 45 (Englin), HD 46 (Herring), HD 47 (Hope), HD 48 (Brink), HD 49 (Ebbin-open), HD 53 (Scott)
HD 49
Stephanie Clifford: N/A
Alfonso Lopez: $26K | $21K | 146
McDonnell Vote: 32%
Tough to judge this race without Clifford’s numbers. Hopefully they show up soon.
Prince William County Districts:
Uncontested: HD 50 (Miller), HD 51 (Anderson)
HD 2:
Esteban Garces: $6K | $6K | 54
Mark Dudenhefer: $19K | $14K | 49
McDonnell Vote: 58%
The first of our three transported districts: Bud Phillips from Southwest Virginia is technically the incumbent here, so Garces gets top billing. This looks like a swing district on paper, so I would’ve expected to see a more rigorous fundraising effort on both sides here, but maybe they’re still figuring out where exactly their district lines are.
HD 13:
Bob Marshall (i): $8K | $43K | 92
Carl Genthner: $17K | $11K | 116
McDonnell Vote: 61%
Not surprisingly, Bob Marshall was outraised by an eager opponent (though he maintains a health cash advantage). Next thing you know, we’ll be getting press releases and blogger alerts about how Marshall is vulnerable this year, like we get every two years, and then a month after Election Day few will remember his dispatched opponent’s name.
HD 31:
Scott Lingamfelter (i): $31K | $52K | 115
Roy Coffey: $2K | $5K | 17
McDonnell Vote: 60%
Odd with the other targets in the region, Democrats let other Delegates go and put up a challenger against Lingamfelter. No matter; the colonel was a tough opponent when he had a lot of Dem-leaning Eastern PWC precincts to deal with. Now that those are gone, this race doesn’t figure to amount to much. Coffey’s fundraising thus far demonstrates that. Just so I’m front: I’m a former legislative staffer for Del. Lingamfelter.
HD 52:
Luke Torian (i): $40K | $48K | 150
Cleveland Anderson: $4K | $32K | 15
McDonnell Vote: 46%
This district shifted about six points to the left, moving from a district that only the right type of Republican could win (like Jeff Frederick) to one just about out of reach. Anderson has the makings of a self-funding candidate, but he’s going to need to put a lot more in to make this race competitive.
Loudoun Districts:
Uncontested: HD 32 (Greason), HD 33 (May)
HD 10:
David Butler: $12K | $40K | 43
Randy Minchew: $112K | $111K | 127
Cara Townsend: $6K | $18K | 7
John Whitbeck: $54K | $31K | 168
McDonnell Vote: 62%
The 2nd of the three transported districts, this is technically Ward Amstrong’s district. Ha. Anyways, Democrat David Butler, representing the nominally incumbent party, seems like little more than a sacrificial lamb to the winner of the GOP Primary. I haven’t been paying much attention to this race, but only Whitbeck and Minchew seem to be taking fundraising seriously, and Minchew doubled Whitbeck’s total. I’m the first to say that money isn’t everything in a race, but it sure buys a lot of tea leaves.
HD 87:
Mike Kondratick: $26K | $30K | 183
Jo Ann Chase: $10K | $15K | 109
David Ramadan: $121K | $61K | 82
McDonnell Vote: 59%
The final of the three transported district moved Paula Miller’s Norfolk district up to the half of Bob Marshall’s district that he had to give up. Jo Ann Chase actually received money from about 100 more donors than I thought she would, but she ended up raising approximately 1/12th of David Ramadan’s haul.
Rest of Virginia:
Uncontested: Most of them.
HD 3:
Will Morefield (i): $42K | $47K | 45
Vern Presley: $24K | $11K | 36
McDonnell Vote: 70%
Panhandle. I guess with the amount of old-timey Democratic voters and Will Morefield’s age, you could make the case that this district may be competitive. But Morefield unseated an incumbent his first time around, and that 70% McDonnell vote is quite intimidating in its own right.
HD 9:
Charles Poindexter (i): $26K | $22K | 77
Ward Armstrong (i): $142K | $239K | 210
McDonnell Vote: 68%
South of Roanoke. I put an incumbent symbol next to Armstrong (like I did for Bill Stanley on the Senate side). Our dear Minority Leader is fighting to stay in the House, running in a portion of his district that got absorbed by Poindexter. I have no idea how expenseive races in this area of the state may be, but Armstrong seems like he’s really prepared for whatever costs it takes. We’ll see what happens in a 68% McDonnell district, though.
HD 12:
Don Langrehr: N/A?
Joseph Yost: $2K | $1K | 49
McDonnell Vote: 51%
Southwest Virginia. With Jim Shuler’s retirement and a 9-point swing towards Republicans with redistricting, this is a real chance for a pick-up in this Blacksburg-based seat. The math seems pretty simple: activate traditional Democratic voters in an off-off cycle, and Langrehr has a good chance in this swingy district. Don’t, and it’s a pick-up. Langrehr’s fundraising totals would really help, especially with Yost’s underwhelming totals.
HD 19:
Lacey Putney (i): $6K | $47K | 8
Lewis Medlin: $3K | $3K | 3
Jerry Johnson: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 62%
Shenandoah. The dean of the House, I don’t imagine he’s leaving under any circumstances but of his own making.
HD 20:
Dickie Bell (i): $16K | $17K | 94
Laura Kleiner: N/A?
McDonnell Vote: 66%
Shenandoah. Again, the lack of challengers across the state make the races where Democrats have put up a challenge almost surprising at times. This race is one of them, as I can’t see a scenario where Dickie Bell loses, if only for the fact that voters hope to learn the secret of the 11 herbs and spices in his famous fried chicken.
HD 21:
Ron Villanueva (i): $42K | $36K | 50
Adrianne Bennett: $6K | $6K | 5
McDonnell Vote: 61%
Virginia Beach. Now this is a race that it makes sense to challenge, since “Landslide Ron” won by only 14 votes last time around. However, Bennett’s fundraising will have to pick up to put this race on the map (only 5 donors is a dead giveaway), especially since redistricting moved this district even more to the right (and picked up the precincts along Kempsville Rd. — Go Tallwood Lions!)
HD 59:
Matt Fariss: N/A
Evans Thomas: $5K | $2K | 34
Connie Brennan: N/A
Jasper Hendricks: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 67%
South of Charlottesville. Independent/GOP-Caucuser Watkins Abbitt is hanging them up, giving us our only race in either chamber with a nomination contest on both sides of the aisle. However, since only one fundraising report has been made available–and its a lackluster report at that–I can’t make heads or tails on which Republicans is most likely to end up in the House next January.
HD 64:
William Barlow (i): N/A
Richard Morris: N/A
Joseph Waymack: $5K | $506 | 10
McDonnell Vote: 66%
Isle of Wight. Another race I really wish I had a fundraising report. Barlow’s district shifts 6 points to the right, two years after he beats Stan Clark by only 4 points while outspending him by $100K. This could easily be a very tight race.
HD 75:
Roslyn Tyler (i): $22K | $26K | 25
Al Peschke: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 49%
Southside. I don’t know anything about this race, only that VPAP lists a challenger for Tyler in this Dem district. We’ll see if a fundraising report for Peschke materializes at some point.
HD 90:
Algie Howell (i): $12K | $23K | 38
Rick James: $12K | $3K | 40
McDonnell Vote: 35%
Norfolk. There are so few competitive races, so hey, why not include a primary challenge in this solidly-D district. Algie Howell should win this, if for no other reason than his opponent tempting so many white college students from imitating an overplayed Chappelle’s Show skit yet again.
HD 93:
Robin Abbott (i): $54K | $37K | 175
Michael Watson: $20K | $25K | 57
McDonnell Vote: 55%
Williamsburg. Abbott has a good fundraising haul here, proving her victory wasn’t just a fluke over the corrupt Ted Dibiase Phil Hamilton. Still, despite the GOP’s best efforts to move this seat to the right, it’s still very swingy and will likely be close through Election Day.
HD 98:
Sherwood Bowditch: $72K | $53K | 186
Ken Gibson: $28K | $15K | 78
Keith Hodges: $56K | $45K | 106
Catesby Jones: $7K | $5K | 11
Andrew Shoukas: N/A?
McDonnell Vote: 69%
Middle Peninsula. Harvey Morgan is retiring and contributing to Bowditch’s campaign, helping explain his large haul in the GOP primary that will determine the next Delegate here.
HD 99:
John Lampmann: $11K | $8K | 7
Margaret Ransone: $44K | $62K | 235
Dean Sumner: $10K | $2K | 90
McDonnell Vote: 66%
Northern Neck. You won’t see this often: Del. Albert Pollard is retiring, and no Democrat is even running in an attempt to hold the seat. You don’t see many free pick-ups of a legislative seat of any kind. Brian Moran’s DPVA, ladies and gentlemen. Anyways, knowing nothing of this race, Ransonse seems the best-poised to head to Richmond based on fundraising strength. 235 individual donors is damn impressive (the 2nd-highest for any House race candidate), and even more so given this is a primary-only campaign.
Welcome To The House of Delegates…
These three lucky individuals are the only announced candidate of either party in three open seats, meaning with no effort beyond what’s required to file, a Delegate seat is bestowed upon them. I can’t say that I’m glad such things happen, but nonetheless, let’s take a look at what they raised. Maybe they’ll have a need to use it two years from now.
HD 5:
Del.-Elect Israel O’Quinn: $19K | $18K | 23
HD 7:
Del.-Elect Nick Rush: $1K | $1K | 4
HD 17:
Del.-Elect Christopher Head: $21K | $15K | 35
State Overview:
Of course, the biggest development this cycle is the apathy on both sides of the aisle in terms of candidate recruiting. With redistricting, I understand that this there is some uncertainty, but 22 competitive races is, frankly, ridiculous. There are some really egregious omissions as well, such as HD 41 and HD 4 for the GOP, and HD 86 and HD 99 for the Democrats. I get that Albert Pollard is perhaps the only Democrat who could win that Northern Neck seat, but upon his retirement, Democrats just give the district away without a fight?
That district speaks to the other evident development. Despite a comfortable 61-39 margin in the House, the GOP looks poised to grow. All three redistricting coups (HD 2, HD 10, and HD 87) are strong opportunities. The continuing trend of Southwest Virginia voting straight Republican (see: Rep. Morgan Griffith) puts Jim Shuler’s open HD 12 on the map. David Bulova is vulnerable in Fairfax. And in Tidewater, challengers to Barlow and Abbott put the number of Democratic defenses up to 7, on top of the auto-win in HD 99. The Democratic Caucus could be down to 31 members come January 2012.
Trendsetters:
Top Five Contested Incumbent Fundraisers: Ward Armstrong ($142K), Barbara Comstock ($112K), Ken Plum ($67K), Dave Albo ($60K), David Bulova ($55K)
Top Five Non-Incumbent Fundraisers: Dave Ramadan ($121K), Randy Minchew ($112K), Pam Danner ($76K), Sherwood Bowditch ($72K), Keith Hodges ($56K)
Top Five Contested Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Ward Armstrong ($239K), Barbara Comstock ($230K), Ken Plum ($101K), Dave Albo ($79K), David Bulova ($49K)
Top Five Non-Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Randy Minchew ($111K), Margaret Ransone ($62K), Dave Ramadan ($61K), Pam Danner ($53K), Sherwood Bowditch ($53K)
Challengers Who Outraised Incumbents: Carl Genthner
Challengers With More Cash-on-Hand Than Incumbents: None
Senate races to come.
