This didn’t take a genius to figure out what happened here: a random guy put a Tea Party sticker on his shirt sleeve, and a Republican district went Democratic. Ford O’Connell hammers it home:
What we see in tonight’s election result is the power of the Democrats’ attack politics. What we didn’t see was a concerted effort by the GOP leadership during the past couple of months to control the message and sell its vision of why we need to change our government’s fiscal habits now.
Let me add something else to this mix. The presupposed “Tea Party candidate” was anything but — no history, no credentials, just a sticker and a willingness to take advantage of an upset electorate. As a result, instead of seeing a GOP candidate embracing the Ryan budget, the NY-26 Tea Party forked over a largely Republican seat to an out and out socialist.
…and so today, we get to read op-eds from guys like the WaPo’s Dan Balz (real name… no joke) asking “Will Republicans Learn The Lesson Of The NY-26 Loss?” and so forth.
The greater question is whether conservatives will be able to stitch together a coalition in order to win elections.
To date, the Tea Party even in Virginia is mired in civil war, the libertarian wing attempting to toss out the social conservative wing, establishment money vs. grassroots activism, personalities are driving the principles, and the same divisions that splintered the Libertarian Party in the 1970s, the Constitution Party in the 1980s, and Reform Party in the 1990s are at play again.
It cannot be stated enough. Coalitions win elections. Sure enough, there are instances where it’s better to have a bad Democrat than a bad Republican, but the litmus test for a “bad Republican” has to exceed or meet the test for the “bad Democrat” — and I am in no way convinced that Jane Corwin was anywhere close to bad on conservative issues, and certainly not comparable to now Representative-Elect Kathy Hochul, a guaranteed pro-spending, pro-Pelosi, pro-abortion liberal.
In fact, Democrats are chalking up Corwin’s defeat based on her support for Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget. Not as good as the RSC budget proposal… but awful darned close.
NY-26 taught us two things: (1) Tea Party candidates are not winning elections on their own merits, and (2) the GOP cannot win without the Tea Party. The first group — Tea Party or establishment — that learns how to build winning coalitions first, wins the heart and soul of the Republican Party writ large.
Anyone want to wager who will win? Gentlemen, place your bets.
Because should either the Tea Party not become more politically astute, or the establishment old guard continue to do everything possible to antagonize the grassroots, the only winner will be the Democrats seeking to spend and borrow our way into $70 trillion of entitlements America cannot afford.
Perhaps voices such as Jay Cost are correct. A maturation process needs to occur on both sides, and quickly. The solution will not be easy, nor will we be able to escape the last two decades of reckless spending without paying for the consequences. Regardless, a voice for 2012 that can unite fiscal and social conservatives again without sacrificing our principles, that can speak to the common man without patronizing him, that can talk plain and rebuild the stability this nation was known for and enjoyed… perhaps these are the voices in the Republican Party that we need to embrace if our grandchildren are to enjoy the Pax Americana the Greatest Generation left to us?
