UPDATED: Senators Smith and Stanley to Move, Foiling Democrats’ Plans
By Jason Johnson | Wednesday, May 18th, 2011 | PoliticsWhen looking at the ridiculously gerrymandered redistricting map produced by Virginia’s Senate Democrats, everyone knew what they were trying to do: draw the lines however necessary to retain their slight majority. (If they could not tell, Sen. Dick Saslaw was glad to remind everyone of that fact, too.) One could even be forgiven for looking at the map and mistaking it for the work of a kindergartner.
The Democrats hoped to use the occasion of redistricting to eliminate at least one of the Senate’s most conservative members by placing both Steve Newman and Ralph Smith within the borders of the newly reconstituted 23rd District. But just as they say “The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry”, it appears this plan is also going awry:
On Thursday evening at the Roanoke County Administration Building in Salem, Sen. Ralph Smith—accompanied by Congressmen Bob Goodlatte and Morgan Griffith—is expected to announce that he will be moving into the 19th Senate District. By leaving the 23rd, Sen. Smith will avoid a costly and divisive intra-party fight with the district’s current senator, Steve Newman.
The 19th District is currently represented by another Republican, Bill Stanley, who was elected in January to fill the seat vacated by Congressman Robert Hurt. Sen. Stanley saw his district change dramatically: the old 19th was principally a Pittsylvania County-Danville-based district that also extended into portions of Campbell and Franklin Counties. After redistricting, the 19th lost most of these localities in its shift to the west, now extending from Smith Mountain Lake to Wytheville.
Rumors have been swirling that Sen. Stanley would be rejoining his former constituents by moving “just about 10 minutes down the road” to a property that he already owned in the 20th District. Tomorrow he will make it official at an event in Danville. Stanley’s move, coupled with his campaign’s recent hire of master Republican campaign strategist Chris LaCivita and Stanley’s own vigorous campaign style, could mean headaches for the district’s 14-year, Democratic incumbent Roscoe Reynolds.
Reynolds, who consistently bests his opponents by double-digit margins, will find himself campaigning in a district that is slightly more Republican Democratic than it was four years ago. Before Bill Stanley can challenge Sen. Reynolds, he must first win the Republican nomination, which is being challenged by Reynold’s 2007 opponent Jeff Evans.
Ultimately, despite their best efforts when drafting a redistricting plan, the Senate Democrats might find themselves in the minority next year—looking across the aisle at the very senators they hoped to eliminate: Newman, Smith and Stanley—and that would be just deserts indeed.
UPDATE: Many thanks to commenter Steve Vaughan (a nice guy for a Democrat!) for recommending that I review the Virginia Public Access Project’s website where I discovered that, based upon the way the new 20th Senate District has be drawn, it is, indeed, more Democratic–7.1 percent more Democratic. That having been said, Bob McDonnell won 59.6 percent of the vote in the reconfigured 20th District in 2009. Assuming a strong challenge by the eventual Republican nominee, a solid ground game and comparable turnout, an upset is not improbable. Whether Bill Stanley, Jeff Evans or someone else entirely is the best candidate to mount that challenge is a decision for 20th District residents. One important number to keep in mind, though: 40 percent of Bill Stanley’s old 19th Senate District is now situated in the 20th District.
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A lifelong political junkie, Jason caught the political bug as a fifth grader after meeting George Allen in 1993. Since then he has studied political science at both the undergraduate and graduate level. When not perusing the blogs or volunteering for conservative Republicans, Jason enjoys cheering on his beloved Virginia Tech Hokies and spending time at his Bedford County home.
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18 Responses to "UPDATED: Senators Smith and Stanley to Move, Foiling Democrats’ Plans"
This is excellent news. I’m glad the Sen. Smith and Sen. Stanley were able to reach this agreement. I plan on donating to both of them.
See, it’s funny, because nobody asked what the people who actually live here wanted. This was a scheme concocted in Richmond and forced upon us. People I’ve been talking to in Patrick and Henry counties – the heart of the district – are very unhappy about Stanley carpetbagging into the 20th and expecting a coronation for the nomination. If Stanley is our nominee, Reynolds will walk to re-election.
I hope that Bearing Drift can work with others in the blogosphere (both left and right) to perform some issue advocacy.
I’ve never heard as much dissatisfaction with redistricting as this year. I think a big part of the problem is that the tools are becoming more sophisticated, so the legislators are parsing those lines more and more. In my opinion, the maps from both chambers have produced some ridiculous gerrymanders.
Now is the time to form a coalition to lobby next year’s GA to institute some sort of non partisan commission. From Hampton Roads to the Northern Neck to the monstrosities of Southside (Ruff now represents the Richmond exurb of Dinwiddie! And, Roscoe’s district is ridiculous.), it’s time to stop this.
@Samuel
What about the voters who live in the new 20th that just overwhelmingly elected Stanley in the 19th? If you look at the district the only real part that Stanley would have kept in the 19th is the northern end of Franklin County. The 20th has the majority of his old district.
Reynolds has conducted a great dis-service to his constituents for years. Its time for change.
@ Sam, I hear you work for one of the two gentlemen who have announced for the Republican nomination in the 20th. I smell a little bias here on your part. Stanley is a true conservative with a 100% rating from the Family Foundation and has grassroots and Tea Party support. It can’t be carpetbagging if he is only moving 10 minutes away from where he already lives, IN THE SAME COUNTY. Sounds like he owns property in the “new” 20th, is that carpetbagging? The Democrats moved his District around on him, it’s not like he’s coming to the 20th from Richmond.
I also hear he has the support of his fellow Republicans in the Senate, and the Governor. If the Republicans, and conservatives for that matter, are to take control of the Senate, Sen. Reynolds must be beaten. Sen. Reynolds hasn’t had a real challenge in years, Sen. Stanley can give it to him. Stanley can win. Any statement that if Stanley faces Sen. Reynolds, “Roscoe will walk to victory,” is just plain silly.
I am hearing that if Sen. Stanley announces, Roscoe Reynolds may just retire, rather than face him. Sounds like he takes Stanley more seriously than the other challengers who have announced.
Everyone who’s paying attention knows I’m biased. That’s part and parcel of using my real name, Mr. Blanket.
The parts of the 19th that are now in the 20th are not the majority of Stanley’s old district – it’s a plurality, but not a majority. In any event, the parts that were co-opted into the new district aren’t his best parts. Besides, the old parts of the 20th still outweigh the new.
If the governor and everyone else who’s supposedly supporting Bill Stanley are really backing him, then why won’t anybody publicly confirm it? Why couldn’t Stanley get any of them to simply give me a phone call and confirm it privately? Couldn’t Stanley just be bluffing to try to clear the field?
From, Merriam-Webster Dictionary, Carpetbagging:”2: outsider; especially : a nonresident or new resident who seeks private gain from an area often by meddling in its business or politics”
I don’t care if the move is 2 feet down the road. It meets the defintition.
Roscoe Reynolds will retire because of Bill Stanley as much as Bill Stanley told me he was contemplating retirement himself.
Also, anyone that thinks this new district is more Republican has no clue what they are talking about. Talk to a local about the true story; get educated.
@ Samuel
Look for the Governor to endorse Stanley tomorrow.
Stanley walked to victory in the 19th primary and he will do the same in the 20th.
@ Not a CB
Who knows what Reynolds will do. He has been in the General Assembly since 1986. Difficult challenges can a powerful motivator. Ask Cliff Hapgood
It’s funny how he “walked” to victory in the primary, considering he lost the areas that are crossing over into the 20th. Having supported Stanley in that race, I don’t recall it being such a walk.
I recall the Governor not liking Stanley for his involvement with Chairman Fred, his run for RPV, and the 5th district. I recall a certain LT. Gov, running for Gov, endorsing Stanley’s opponent in the 5th. We bucked the establishment to support him then. If he has the establishment now, the 20th will buck him and them now.
Bill Stanley has never ran for or won a general election. His name id is small, even in his own district. Whoever was the Republican nominee in that district would have won it. That’s why you had the pileup of candidates.
The portions of the 19th coming over are largely Democratic, and he would not win them against a strong Democrat such as Roscoe or Ward. That’s supposed to be Stanley’s base. Henry, Galax, Martinsville, Patrick, and Carroll (Roscoe and Ward Dem areas) certainly aren’t going to provide the makeup.
Then there’s talk of conservative Independent candidacies which would cause at least a small splintering of any Republican base in a Democratic-favored seat. If it were close, that would seal it for a Democrat.
Further, even if Roscoe were to retire, it’d likely be to give Ward a better shot. The Democratic Party did not just draw a seat to protect a Democratic incumbent for him to retire and then not to put in a powerful opponent. You vastly underestimate the Democratic Party if you believe this.
I hear there is a third candidate for the GOP nomination in this race also.
I don’t think Stanley is a carpetbagger here because so much of his old district is in this one.
Someone has been playing dirty pool already in this race and if the person is determined, they should be outed and ousted. It may not be a candidate but one of their key people.
@jason I think you should have researched a little more here and known about the third candidate.
I can’t see how adding the city of Danville to Reynold’s district makes it “more Republican.” That certainly wasn’t anybody’s intent in re-districting.
I think Senator Stanley has the team in place to put the heat on Roscoe! His record in the Senate is outstanding. He’s a fine man. Yeah he defended JFred and yes I did oppose him in his quest for state party chairman but I give him my full throated endorsement now. He’s a true conservative who believes in public service the people of the 19th deserve someone who will fight for them. It’s about who can win and Bill Stanley can win and win huge. He has a winning team in place and will be the man who brings the Senate back to Republican control.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project’s maps, redistricting made the 20th 7.1 percentage points more Democratic.
Bill Stanley is walking away from 40% of his district which is in the new 19th. Despite his saying that the new district is hyper-partisan, the dems in the senate gave him a district which is 69% favorable to republicans. That is better than the new 20th. I guess Bill did not really care about those people who voted for him in January.
The bottom line is, who can defeat Reynolds. Roscoe is a genuinely nice guy, I genuinely like him. yet he is not the Senate’s shining intellectual star. He has been an embarrassment to Henry, Patrick, Carroll, Wythe, and Floyd County for some time now.
I like Jeff Evans. I like Mr. Dunlap. However, I believe Bill Stanley is the only one of the three who has the gravitas and strength to defeat Mr. Reynolds.
Not only do I know Jeff Evans, I have intimate knowledge of his campaign weaknesses. There is no way Mr. Evans can improve on his past performance against Mr. Reynolds.
After his current district was cut up into 4 other districts, it makes sense to me for Bill to keep as many of his current constituents as possible. The same can be argued or Mr. Smith. I believe both have done so.
@Alton Bill could have kept the same number of folks. He was given 40% of his old district, the same amount he lost to the new district. That dog does not hunt.
I have never met Mr. Dunlap but having attended VMI myself, I think I would probably like him as a person. I have no clue what kind of a candidate he would make. I respect those who went out and recruited him as they are people who I trust have the best interests of the district in their hearts. Good thing to see a W & L guy backing a VMI guy.
I watched Jeff Evans four years ago and I don’t think he has a real chance to beat Roscoe, which is priority one. I wish rather that being totally negative that he would take a hard look at his candidacy and get out of this race. He fought the battle four years ago, and I respect that but he is no stronger now than then. He has been raising monies for months and has very little in the bank. I don’t see how he gets stronger than the 37% he got then with the district more Democrat than it was then ? Jeff, go out with dignity. Make this about getting rid of Roscoe.
I have known Bill Stanley since he was one of the key people to assist a man beating the son of a legend in Franklin County in a sheriff’s race.
I may disagree with Bill at times over certain issues but has voted well while serving last year. I think he has the best chance now to defeat Roscoe. I have a number of problems with what Roscoe has done over the years as the State Senator in not advancing the priorities of getting jobs into his district. He has held Martinsville and Henry County back in gaining new jobs. Beating him is critical to having a conservative majority in the State Senate and moving conservative legislation forward. That is job one.
There are some who have made scurrilous attacks both online and through anonymous mail. If they cannot produce real solid information and back it up with their names they should, as I have said before, be outed and ousted. I have checked those claims and find them without foundation and not worthy of dignifying.
If Bill and Doug cannot reach an agreement, the best thing for both and the district is to have a clean straightforward contest over ideas and ability to defeat Roscoe. It can be done. Reagan reminded us that those who agree with us 80% of the time are not our enemies. I would bet this Hampden Sydney and this VMI guy can find more than that to agree on. Heck H-S hired a VMI guy to run H-S.
Jason-thanks for the shout out. I agree it’s not an unwinnable district for a Republican, but the GOP candidate is going to be the underdog.
We’ve got a problem right now in evaluating the political leanings of these new districts in that the last two statewides we can compare them to ..McDonnell in ’09 and Warner in ’08 were both blowouts, which is not generally the case in Virginia…Webb/Allen race in ’06 would probably be a better barometer, but I don’t know of anywhere that comparison is available for the new districts.
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