Former 2nd District Nomination Candidates Well Positioned for Successful State Senate Runs
By D.J. Spiker | Tuesday, May 17th, 2011 | Politics, VirginiaWith redistricting completed at the legislative level and off to the judiciary, there’s soon to be a large number of candidates announcing for various seats around the Commonwealth. While many Republican candidates have already announced their intentions in southwest and northern Virginia, Hampton Roads remains largely silent. The only substantive rumor circulating was that Virginia Beach State Senator Frank Wagner may move to Newport News and challenge State Senator John Miller, allowing Delegate Chris Stolle to move up.
That rumor failed to pan out as Wagner announced his intent to run for reelection, as well as Stolle, but provides an opening for former 2nd District Republican nomination candidate Bert Mizusawa to run for the right-leaning seat on the Peninsula, the 1st State Senate district.
Formerly a solid Republican seat, the 1st had an intra-party dispute in 2007 with Patricia Stall challenged and defeated incumbent Marty Williams at the time. Despite the victory, Stall fell short in the general election, giving Miller the win and helping Democrats take a majority in the State Senate. After redistricting, Democrats cushioned the seat with solid Democratic precincts, moving the district from 63.3% for Governor McDonnell in 2009 to what would have been 54.3%. In spite of that Democratic cushion, the seat remains solidly in play for Republicans, particularly for a candidate with a strong resume.
Mizusawa, who’s resume stood out last year during the 2010 2nd District nomination campaign, is well positioned to recapture the Republican leaning seat. Given his extensive resume, intellect and fundraising network, Bert is the only high-profile potential candidate in the district. With Wagner remaining in Virginia Beach, Bert Mizusawa has a clear path to both the nomination and victory in the general election. Bearing Drift endorsed Mizusawa last year in the 2nd District and has included his name in out 2012 poll questions for US Senate. However, given George Allen’s near lock-up of the race already, the best possible outcome for Bert Mizusawa would be to run for the 1st State Senate district.
On the southside, Democrat State Senator Ralph Northam has had his district improved by the Democratic Caucus as well. Despite Republican intentions to flip Northam to the GOP caucus, Northam remains a D, voting along party lines for the foolhardy original redistricting plan as well as buffering Democratic measures to stop the conservative movement in the state. While former 87th House of Delegates candidate Jon Amiral plans to run for the nomination, former 2nd District candidate Ben Loyola is contemplating running in the race as well, sources indicate.
While the 2nd District race was Loyola’s first foray into running for office, his experience and performance makes him a solid fit for the 6th Senate District. His entrepreneurial background and his financing abilities as well as his military background help position him as the strongest potential candidate. Additionally, the majority of the 6th District is within the 2nd Congressional district, so Loyola has the added advantage of connections, loyalties and network from last year’s campaign.
Both men were faithful surrogates for Scott Rigell after he won the nomination last year, despite the tough final month of the Republican primary. As such, Rigell and the Republican Party of Virginia would be more inclined to support both financially and logistically a campaign from both men.
Given that the Republicans only need two seats in order to take the majority back in the State Senate, having two former 2nd District candidates in strong positions to capture that majority on their own shows the conservative strength of the Hampton Roads area.
Here’s hoping that both Bert Mizusawa and Ben Loyola decide to formally throw their hats in the ring and help the Republican Party take back a full majority in the state government.
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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30 Responses to "Former 2nd District Nomination Candidates Well Positioned for Successful State Senate Runs"
I live in the 6th, Ben Loyola would be great here!
I haven’t been to many events lately, but the ones I have been to have I have not seen Mr Loyola around. Gen Mizusawa has been spotted.
I tend to not get extremely excited about people that “come out and play” when they are running in an election. If I am out supporting the party in person, as a lowly voter, these guys should be everywhere they can be to drum up that respect, not just when they are actively running.
Burt and Ben are great men and would be a credit to any district. I hope they both run and win!
What Kathy said.
Apparently John “is” running and Ben is “contemplating running” which means a possible primary. I also heard that Melody Scalley may be considering.
Miller retains his seat.
The attrition of solid Republican precincts (Poquoson, Tabb…) and the addition of the liberal pocket of Williamsburg further shifts the favor to the incumbent candidate with deep Peninsula roots and business community backing. Yes, Miller saddled-up with the Dems to defeat Stall, but the majority of voters in the district put Miller right of center after the 2007 Tricia Stall’s show.
D.J.- Your analysis of the 1st was good before redistricting. But that’s an entirely new disrict now. It’s much more Democratic. There are Republicans who could win it. I’d say Tommy Norment, if he wanted to move, would definitely win it. And no loss there for the GOP, because anybody with an R after their name could win the redrawn 3rd. Former Williamsburg City Councilman Mickey Chohany would have at least a 50/50 shot. Mizusawa isn’t particularly well known on the Peninsula, particularly in the Williamsburg, York, James City County area’s added to the district this year. For a Republican to win the seat as it’s now configured, they would have to run strong in those areas. They aren’t getting a lot of votes in Newport News.
I think Miller would defeat Chohany. A lot of the swing vote is the Newport News “establishment” and while they’d support Tommy Norment, in general I think they’d be loathe to support a non-Newport News candidate. They are just not going to go for giving up Newport News’s resident senator.
Also I think using just the McDonnell numbers as a baseline is like using Warner’s 08 numbers. Both were wave elections. It would be interesting to see the statewide averages since 04. (last two cycles)
Marcus:
How about Marcus C. for Senate if Loyola sits this one out? You’ve got an established network (that Amiral is going to hijack).
Actually, Loyola v. Amiral nomination is the battle of the Cuban v. Eastern Eurpoean to represent the Navy base. This could get feisty.
Excellent article, D.J. Mizusawa and Loyola would be great additions to the Virginia Senate.
Gov. McDonnell appointed Loyola to the Virginia Public School Authority (VPSA) Board which is a hint of whom he may support.
Great additions to the Virginia Senate — very glad to read this news!
I’m not voting for that moderate JOHN MILLER. He’s only a fiscal conservative! The Richmond Sunlight rates his partisanship dead center (http://www.richmondsunlight.com/legislator/jcmiller/). If there’s anyone who’s vulnerable in this climate, it’s a moderate with the backing from the business community. Can’t we find a true conservative to run against him?!
I really do think this is the best article you have written for Bearing Drift D.J.
@SE VA MWC Alum, I’m not necessarily referencing McDonnell to show the conservative strength of the district or a baseline vote, but it’s the information I had available at the time and at least gives a frame of reference. Some districts may be off by up to 5% higher (or even higher than that) but the 1st and 6th are in play either way
I agree that they are in play-and admittedly I know more about the 1st as a Peninsula guy. I think however though the R lean (or D lean that a few have referred to) is negligable in either direction. I guess that actually makes it more competitive. However I still think that nominating a Williamsburg candidate, not named Normnet (i.e. Chohany)drives the swing voters in the James River area of NN back towards Miller.
On another note have Bert and Ben acutally expressed interest or is this speculation?
From what we understand, both have expressed interest, not sure of the depth of that interest
SteveV: If I recall correctly, Bert took about 60% of Hampton’s vote (in a 6-way race) in the last D2 GOP primary (someone please correct if this stat is way off). He’s definitely on home turf, with roots going back to the early 70s and now spread throughout the region. I wouldn’t expect Bert to have a huge problem boosting name recognition – especially with a name like Mizusawa!
Thumbs up for both!
Jay D: Hampton isn’t Newport News and how many votes does 60% of the vote in Hampton in a GOP primary amount to anyway? It’s not exactly a Republican stronghold.
Steve V – no argument. Not saying a win is a sure bet, only that becoming ‘well known’ shouldn’t be a major hurdle. And that once known, voters previously chose Mizusawa (by an overwhelming majority) over Rigell, Loyola, etc.
This race would be anything but a cakewalk; Miller is well liked, well respected, well connected, and considered as non-partisan as a legislator can get. It will take someone like Bert, and with his credentials, to potentially move this seat into the R aisle.
Jay D. Got you. I still think Norment is probably the GOP’s best shot at picking up the seat. But, I may be biased by the fact that it woudl give me a fun race to cover this fall;-)
I know this forum is basically about republican politics, so let me make one comment. Having been involved in the Hampton Roads business community for some 30 years, and having served on the boards of many regional organizations, business and otherwise, unless I read this forum, I would have no idea who either of these two guys really were. My point is, outside of wherever the far right congregates, these guys are invisible and unknown.
Mike, to you and your liberal friends, any conservative or Republican is invisible or unknown which is part of your denial of reality. If you didn’t have BD to spout your liberal party talking points and to also inform us of your Daily KOS fantasies, we would be missing your hypocrisy as a source of entertainment. In trying to marginalize Bert’s or Ben’s political aspirations in this forum, you would be better off shutting yourself in your closet and talking to your empty suits.
Bert Would be a great contender for the seat. He has a large following in the district and would be more then qualified to go up against miller.
Run Bert Run!
Bert won’t run. State Senate brings up the same problem he had in VA2 and that went well.
John, OK … I’ll bite – what problem?
The whole residency issue about whether he lives in nova or hampton, he really never came up with an effective answer during va2 and Im sure the dems will attack him on it. I mean I personally like the man and would vote for him, but im sure he won’t run because it would bring the same result. I would actually really like to see him run for us senate and think he would be a whole hell of a lot better than George Allen.
Sorry to disturb your fantasies Tim J., but I do think that if you plan to run for public office it does help to be known by the business community.
Which “business community” are you talking about?… the one where you get together with your business buddies and talk about gorging yourselves at the public trough so you can support your political patronage projects? People vote, businesses don’t.
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