Chris Christie and why he won’t run against Obama
By Brian Kirwin | Thursday, March 3rd, 2011 | PoliticsNew Jersey Governor Chris Christie is repeatedly telling anyone and everyone that he is not running for President in 2012.
“But I’ve got to believe I’m ready to be president, and I don’t,” he told the NY Post and others.
Amazing how convenient the timing of that statement is!
I’m fully convinced that Christie’s comments have less to do with his readiness and more to do with history and likelihoods.
The simple fact of the matter is most Presidents who run for re-election win.
There are aberrations, of course. Carter in 1980. Bush in 1992. But since 1933, those are it. Every other President since then has won re-election when he ran for it.
2 out of 12 Presidents in the past 78 years were defeated in a re-election bid. Not great odds for challengers, eh?
And the two that lost had a giant recession during their campaign.
Do you not think that Christie has figured this out? If the economy turns around in time, Obama is going to be nearly impossible to beat.
That says nothing about Obama and says everything about historical trends and Presidential political probability. Heck, Obama’s first election was a near certainty, and that had little to do with Obama as well.
Two-term Presidents are almost always followed by President of the opposite Political Party (In the same 78 years, only FDR and Reagan managed to buck that trend.)
With the statistical likelihood that the current President wins a second term, and the same likelihood that the opposing party follows a two-term President, if you were Chris Christie, when would you be “ready” to run for President?
Do you like running with the wind in your face or at your back?
I think Christie will run in 2016 and not in 2012. But it has nothing to do with readiness.
It has everything to do with history.
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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12 Responses to "Chris Christie and why he won’t run against Obama"
85% of politics is being in the right place at the right time. Christie isn’t dumb. He’s making the right decision.
While I agree with historical facts, if a strong opponent ran against Obama there may be a slim chance of Obama being a one term President. Obama’s choice to put Obamacare ahead of jobs may be his undoing. Quite honestly, I’m not convinced of anyone yet fitting the bill.
On the other hand Kathy, health care reform has already started to deal with the problems of our legacy health care system. And republicans will be left with defending a system that is the most expensive in the world, and has the among the worst outcomes. Our nation has among the highest rates of heart disease, hyper tension, cancer, diabetes, and stroke, and two thirds of our population is either obese or overweight, meaning that costs in the future will get worse, not better, and it excluded some 40 M of our citizens from any coverage at all. Defend that.
Too many have lost their jobs and homes during Obama’s administration. If a strong candidate is chosen, you will see the end of the tax and spend mentality you and Obama life for. And before you blame Bush for the mess we are in do your homework. Start with this one:
http://www.openmarket.org/2008/09/16/clinton-pressure-to-promote-affordable-housing-led-to-mortgage-meltdown/
Christie might have been the GOP’s best shot in 2012.
Well, it is interesting that you ignore the fact that health care reform actually reduces the deficit, so if your candidate supports repeal, the mountain of debt got higher, not lower. Further, the President just met with Governors and told them that if they could do better within their states, they can replace the new system with one of their own making. Perhaps Governor McDonnell will take advantage of Senator McWaters’ background and create a panel that will accept the challenge to create a better system of reform in Virginia.
I am sure Governor McDonnell will. Jeff McWaters is the best person to spearhead a panel for health care reform and when he ran two years ago, he had my full support because one of his platforms was health care reform. I never said we don’t need health care reform, we just can’t sustain the spending on a Federal level.
Obviously Obama is paying attention to the last election. For him to start thinking about the Constitution or State’s Rights is a big one for him.
The pain of the last few years of the American people may outweigh Obama’s last minute thinking. Losing jobs and homes are devastating and will not be forgotten easily.
I was afraid Mike would suffer a relapse after his reasonable post from yesterday. Oh well Obamacare can’t do everything contrary to Mike. Let’s hope Mike doesn’t hijack this post as well.
Anyway, ordinarily I would strongly agree with the two Brians here but there are four complicating factors for Obama assuming Repubs don’t nominate a McGovern or Goldwater. First he’s not a backslapping chummy type of politician or military hero. Those almost always win no matter what. The ones that don’t win tend to be aloof or strident. Second, no one believes that he is going to quietly ride out a second term with a Republican congress a la Clinton. He had a chance to fake it for the next two years and his handlers tried to get him to do it but he can’t. On top of it, events are forcing him even more to the left. It is clear that if reelected he will ignore the Constitution and laws and if he ever gets to change the balance of the court Katy bar the door. He won’t care if the Repubs defund or try to block him, he will regulate and legislate through the courts. Business is far more lined up against him than in 2008 for this reason. Third, unlike Clinton he passed some of his toxic ideas and he is tied to them. He is going to lose a chunk of votes he might otherwise get even if the Supremes knock out the health care mandate. (see second point). The fourth point is that Presidents (except for the atypical Wilson who had a 3 way 1912 election with TR) are never reelected while getting Fewer electoral votes the second time. Obama is going to lose Indiana, VA and NC and almost certainly FL IMO. He is also going to lose 11 or 12 electoral votes from redistricting. This puts him very close to the tipping point.
Christie has a complicating factor himself since he has not even finished one term as governor.
Of course the most important factor is that the economy will be well along to full recovery if the House republicans are not successful in blowing up the recovery. President Obama has kept his eye on the ball in terms of job growth and economic recovery. We have had a soft landing and the job growth and recovery in the private sector has been built on a foundation of solid performance. The greatest threat to full recovery at this point is a premature attack on the deficit which has the potential to put us back into recession. The President’s focus on investment in education, infrastructure, and jobs will give him a strong foundation to run for another term.
Val, certainly 2 out of 12 could become 3 out of 13.
It’s just not likely, and I think Christie’s playing the numbers. THAT is the point of the post.
Brian,
I understand the point of the post and agree that playing the historical odds favors 2016 not 2012, but the post may reflect Christie’s thinking two months ago. I’m not so sure that Christie isn’t beginning to change his mind as are other Repubs about 2012. Back in Dec even the normally sensible Krauthammer was gushing over the new “centrist” Obama. That is all gone now and events and his ideology have boxed Obama into the left for 2012.
Like Chris Berman says, that’s why they play the game.
Thanks for you comment! You make some interesting points.
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