Bearing Drift US Senate Poll Results
By Shaun Kenney | Wednesday, January 26th, 2011 | PoliticsOyez, oyez, oyez! The polls are now closed! Your results:
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.For comparison purposes, here are the results of last month’s online poll:
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.A couple of takeaways:
- Cuccinelli’s support basically split between Allen and Radtke, with neither candidate really gaining the upper hand.
- Allen has a slight edge on Radtke among the blogerati, though none of the candidates really have an outright majority — only pluralities.
- Marshall online base is consistent. It should be clear at this point that Marshall will mount a challenge that will not go away, votes Radtke desperately needs if she is going to beat Allen.
- Corey Stewart continues to languish. Contributors on this blog in particular have been particularly hard on him for his zeal in driving out illegal immigrants from Prince William County (even if legal immigrants get caught up in the push… but I digress…) but otherwise Stewart is excellent on a variety of issues: life, taxes, small government, etc. That he is performing so poorly even among Bearing Drift readers is shocking in my mind, as Stewart was seen as a veritable heir to the throne should the Lieutenant Governor’s position ever open up.
- Mizusawa continues to percolate. It’s pretty clear that Bert is well loved, and has a resume to match the support he’s receiving. Could Mizusawa deliver the Hampton Roads area for a particular candidate? Or is this a sign that Mizusawa is in a similar position to that of Corey Stewart — well known in a particular area of the Commonwealth without the statewide name ID to mount a challenge? Should Mizusawa sit this one out, can he deliver a constituency to his candidate of choice? Keep an eye on this one.
- Allen remains a powerful force in Virginia Republican politics. Little was mentioned by Marshall on the announcement this week, though Stewart was able to throw in one or two punches. Radtke repeated her call for town halls, calls that the political professionals working for Allen will continue to predictably ignore until one of the candidates proves themselves an equal. The old “Allen’s A-Team” is gathering steam, dozens of political activists are rallying around the standard. And unlike the other candidates who have thus far ran against Allen, the heavyweights are predictably focusing on the long game. The sole area where Allen is lacking? Online. Allen barely received a bounce, though it did put distance between himself and Radtke, there’s no question this is a two-person contest (for the moment).
Of course, this is an online poll… and like all online polling they are highly, highly prone to deck-stacking and the like. Still, online polls are useful for two reasons: (1) they gauge intensity among supporters, and (2) they are a great barometer of social media strength and support. At the moment, no one has really blown anyone away, though Allen’s press team sure rolled out like professionals (as expected).
So questions abound:
Does Jamie Radtke really have the Tea Party’s support she says she does? (I say yes, emphatically — others disagree)
Is Allen’s support genuine? (he most certainly does)
Can Marshall make this a three way race? (perhaps)
Is Stewart more than a Johnny-one-note on immigration?
Will Mizusawa rise as an authentic choice beyond the negative campaigning that is sure to follow?
Can Allen survive challenges from his right?
…and can the eventual nominee beat Webb?
Thoughts on the state of the race are more than welcome in the comments section below.
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About the author
Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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10 Responses to "Bearing Drift US Senate Poll Results"
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Shouldn’t the last question be the first question?
(NB But not the only question.)
I actually like Corey and believe he has done an outstanding job here in PWC. As a Certified Government Financial Manager (government’s JV version of a CPA) I have followed the budget struggles in NOVA and people simply do not appreciate the effort required to produce the results our Board of Supervisors has achieved over the past several years.
Nevertheless, Corey needs to decide if he wants to be County Chairman or Senator. His indecision is making his path to either much more difficult. If he wants to be Senator, he needs to step aside for someone else to run for Chairman. If he wants to be Chairman, he needs to take the Senate race off the table or plan on having the WaPo and WTOP hammer it every single day of the reelection campaign. Worst case for Corey would be to lose reelection because his plans for Senate are unclear. I hope he stays with the county. There will be other opportunities.
Peter, Corey should learn the lesson Allen did in ’06 (running for POTUS while having to get reelected to the senate first) Which, by the way, is one of the reasons I maintain Allen will be much better in the Senate this time; he’ll be focused on being a good senator rather than a presidential candidate. I really believe that.
Had I made it into the poll on this crappy day….I’d have voted Allen.
Radtdke has a porkchop tied around her neck…or an albotross….whichever is appropriate on any given day.
That albatross is McSweeney, and their absurd takeover of the Tea Party movement for personal gain in it all. McSweeney has been caught out this way feeding funds to independents who broke their republican pledges after they were defeated in conventions….and is one of the primary forces co-opting the Nova Tea Party, and introducing those silly “purity” standards among the membership.
Allen has too much baggage to win a general election. None of the other candidates really have the name recognition to get the job done, either. Cuccinelli could have possibly pulled it off, but he’s not in the race and the flak he took over the UVA thing (even though it was perfectly legitimate) might have pulled off enough moderate/independent voters to give Webb another win.
I wish Bill Bolling would get into the race and really shake things up. He’s conservative enough on social issues that he would get support from the right. On the other hand, he also does well with moderate/independent voters. Not sure how the Tea Party feels about him, but he might be able to pull from all the major constituencies of the Republican party and drag enough independents along as well.
So far, he doesn’t seem interested though. Oh well.
McSweeney is using Radtke. Radtke duped, used and compromised the Tea Party.
Rob Wittman would make an excellent Senator.
I also like Rep. Rob Wittman. I hope he runs.
Ben: I was wondering if someone would mention Wittman. I’d think he, Goodlatte and Randy Forbes (Cantor too, but he obviously wants to be Speaker of the House some day)would be stronger general election candidates than most of the people mentioned in the poll. All proven vote-getters, without Allen’s baggage.
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