2011 Predictions
By Bearing Drift | Friday, December 31st, 2010 | Catch-All
First, we must start with baseball…as that is more important than anything else.
There is not consensus amongst the Bearing Drift brethren.
Kirwin, habitually, picks the Phillies.
Big shocker from Krystle: “The New York Yankees will come back stronger than ever with Jeter. Look for them to win the 2011 World Series (fingers crossed).” [Not!]
Then, of course, Leslie has to chime in: “The healthy Red Sox will dominate the AL East, with a line-up that looks like this: Jacoby Ellsbury CF, Dustin Pedroia 2B, Carl Crawford LF, Adrian Gonzalez 1B, Kevin Youkilis 3B, David Ortiz DH, J.D. Drew RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia C, & Marco Scutaro SS.” [Yea, right.]
The Northern Virginia faithful continue to lament Jeffrey Maier’s early entrance into the big leagues when he made that stellar catch in the 1997 World Series (he’s now in the Yankee’s organization), but they still say this is the Orioles year! [dream on]
But my man, Sic Semper T himself, gets it right: “Y’all go right ahead and keep sleeping on the Tigers. Remember they led the AL Central at the All-Star break last year before Magglio Ordonez got injured and they were forced to bat a rookie behind Miguel Cabrera. I will say though, if Los Tigres add any more Venezuelans, Chavez might try to annex Motown.” Bottom-line: The bengals take the flag!
OK…onto politics….
Miss Wasilla will form an exploratory committee, tease everybody for months a la Fred Thompson, and then either decide not to run or run for a couple of months, dropping out when the mockery of her ignorance has intensified conservative worship for her enough that she can make even more obscene amounts of money mouthing platitudes she doesn’t understand. Romney and Huckabee are running for sure.
Jim Webb will announce that he will not run for re-election in 2012, creating a Democratic free-for-all. Republicans won’t be much better off with their own internal snow ball fight as Allen, Marshall, and Stewart all enter the nomination race.
George Allen won’t go a week without saying “positive, constructive ideas” or “stay strong for freedom” or “dictators and oligarchs and cartels”. Football references can be expected almost hourly.
Jim DeMint’s star will continue to rise. Many new members of Congress to follow his lead on issues dealing with fiscal issues, especially newcomers Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.
Economic slowth will continue until an Obama-Boehner spending cut deal (triggered by the continuing crisis in Europe) is reached in the summer (thus triggering a Dem base revolt that will only be quelled by a premature Afghanistan withdrawal); unemployment will be at or near 10% for all of 2011.
Obamacare will be declared constitutional by one federal court and unconstituitonal by another.
Joe Manchin, and Ben Nelson will launch a Senate version of the Blue Dog Democrats. Joe Lieberman will offer support, and at least two other Dems will join, giving this new group the balance of power in the US Senate.
Jerry Brown will balance California’s budget without raising taxes, then announce for President calling for an immediate withrawal from
Afghanistan (he will do this before July).
Rush Limabugh will stun his listeners (save those who have listened since 1994) by coming out in support of the NFL players’ union.
Stunned to lose the PR war, the owners knuckle under to the NFLPA, and the season starts on time.
The Virginia state budget will need to be reduced by roughly $1 billion. A legislator will finally be brave enough to recommend privatizing maintenance of subdivision roads; that will be a retiring legislator (and not necessarily by choice). There will not be tax increases, unless fee increases count.
Ralph Smith and Johnny Joannou have their districts disappear.
At least one large county’s redistricting plan will be rejected by DOJ.
The Republicans will pick up 3 seats in each legislative house.
While some small, locally based efforts to educate conservatives will bear fruit, overall the anti-intellectual wing of the Tea Party will
continue to mock calls to grow in knowledge and reason, to its own and the country’s detriment. Tea Partiers in Virginia will work harder to unseat Republicans they agree with 90% of the time than to unseat Democrats they never agree with.
Sen. Yvonne Miller will say something stupid before Sine Die.
Bobby Mathieson will run again, and have another negative campaign while offering voters little else.
Many long-term Delegates will claim to run for just one more term.
State Senate Democrats, despite repeatedly voting to raise taxes, will campaign as “fiscal conservatives.”
Sen. Saslaw’s hair will be mussed at least once.
Del. Robin Abbott will mess up parliamentary procedure at least weekly, and after she forgets asking if a Delegate will yield for a question for the 20th time, The Speaker will shut off her mike.
Democrats who say they support non-partisan redistricting will sing a different song when the State Senate Democrats redistrict in a purely partisan fashion.
Gov. McDonnell will be vacationing near Des Moines and Nashua more than usual this year.
Democrats, running nominally conservative candidates, pose strong challenges to Bill Stanley and Greg Habeeb in the 19th Senate and 8th House districts, respectively, yet still come up short thus allowing the GOP to win the first legislative elections of 2011.
Buoyed by their strong showing in the special elections, Virginia Democrats nominate a host of Blue Dogs for the General Election, but
they experience mixed success as the GOP holds the House of Delegates and picks up the state Senate.
Finally, the Virginia Tech Hokies shock America by coming from behind to defeat sports media-darling Stanford in the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl and (as usual) Sen. Mark Warner takes credit for the Hokies’ victory, “radical centrist” that he is.
Happy New Year, Bearing Drift! 
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Bearing Drift has been providing an online conservative voice in Virginia politics since 2004. The name describes relative motion at sea - without bearing drift, you need to move to the right to avoid a collision! If it looks like the ship-of-state is going to wreck, move right; you can't go wrong!!!
Comments
12 Responses to "2011 Predictions"
President Obama could really rally the party base if he withdraws U.S. troops from Afghanistan and Iraq next year. That’ll be something to watch.
Chris! Didn’t you hear? We’re out of Iraq already. Nevermind any of the deaths you hear about from over there. Seriously, don’t count on Obama for anything like that. War is only evil when Republicans are involved. Cindy Sheehan is a hero when Bush is President, but a complete nut case when ANY Democrat is in charge of our military.
My prediction of obviousness?:
More hypocrisey from both sides of the aisle and more incusions on civil liberties.
One member of the Virginia Congressional delegation will be indicted by the US Attorney for campaign finance irregularities. It will most likely be the representative of a district with a higher number than 10.
Meanwhile, Christine O’Donnell will testify in Federal court that she really was able to live in Delaware on less than $1,600 per month and never used campaign funds to have her poodle groomed.
The phrase “It’s Bush’s fault” will be replaced with “It’s the Republican’s fault”
The phrase “We won” is replaced with “Let’s compromise.”
Guam will finally tip over from all the American military families stationed there.
Continue to get sound political or moral advice from Lady GaGa, Sean Penn and the rest of Hollywood.
Obama learns a new word “Quadrillion”
A self-proclaimed 10-year career politician going to law school, blogger will join the Center for American Progress and tour with Van Jones. He also gets sound advice from his intellectual inner circle of Katie Couric and Perez Hilton. He finally gets to intern with his hero, Eric Holder.
Traffic violations become misdemeanors with prison time.
Smoking will be banned across United States, Ronald McDonald and any other self-respecting corporation will exile from the US
Spielberg makes a horror film starring Nancy Pelosi
And the world will end due to global cooling…huh?…Warming…huh?…change…whatever it is this week but those anti-intellects from the Tea Party get acknowledged.
The Philadelphia Eagles will finally beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl after Bill Belichick is suspended by the NFL for one game for cheating on an eye exam. President Obama presents QB Michael Vick with a labradoodle in a White House ceremony on the same day that Redskins owner Daniel Snyder announces that he has signed QB Brett Favre on a 20-year, $500M contract. Redskins fans happily predict that they will win the Super Bowl next year.
As a Redskins fan, I … nevermind. This is exactly what Snyder would do
UNfortunately Snyder would do something that dumb. Hopefully he sells the team but I wouldnt hold my breath.
Disagree on Joannau. The Speaker likes having him as the token Democrat on the budget panel. Paula Miller or Bill Barlow’s seat will disappear.
Bipartisan redistricting has to work for both houses. Otherwise it works for neither. Quayle’s seat disappears. Robin Abbott’s moves primarily to YC and becomes much more hostile to her.
I make no predictions on the GA races at this time. Its better to wait for redistricting first.
The stock market hits 12,000. Unemployment declines but not much (9% maybe).
The Redskins have a winning season in 2011 (barely) but miss the playoffs.
Vivian,
I used to be a Redskins fan and season ticket holder, back when they were a professional team and didn’t have an amateur owner with a malignant dwarf inferiority complex.
Not only is this exactly what Snyder would do, but it is what the zombie fans would do–flock to the stadium and continue to buy overpriced season tickets every time Snyder signs an over-the-hill, has-been veteran for more money than he is collectively paying the entire O-line and the receivers corps. FedEx should sell the naming rights to the stadium to Pfizer so that they could called it Viagra Field. Then the Redskins could change their marketing slogan from, “Are you in?” to “Let’s get it up!”
SE VA,
Not bragging here, but last summer I predicted that the Redskins would finish no better than 6-10 this year and that McNabb would finish the season either injured or benched. If they lose to the Giants Sunday then they will be 6-10. As for McNabb, you can get a bargain price on Redskins Number 5 jerseys at Sports Authority right now.
It is hard to predict next year until the draft and free agency trades are concluded, but considering Snyder’s track record with free agents and the Redskins success in the draft (last in the NFL with three first-round picks on Sports Illustrated Worst 25 NFL Draft Picks), then I’m willing to stick my neck out and predict that the Skins will be no better than 8-8 next year, assuming that there isn’t a lock out. And I’m predicting that there will be. Too much greed on both sides of the negotiating table and 1987 has long since faded from their memories.
I predict the next decade will suck.
I predict that in the new decade we have just begun there will be significant reductions in Defense spending that will result is a significant loss of well-paying jobs in our region. Hardest hit will be the shipyards. The reduction in military spending will lead to a decline in population and per capita income. The port of Hampton Roads will also see double digit declines in shipping traffic. Gas prices will climb and we will experience a period of $5 a gallon gas. This will dramatically reduce tourism in Virginia Beach. This will lead to higher real estate taxes as our local governments struggle to find enough money to pay for their 2010 spending levels. All of this will continue to depress housing values.
Over all, the next decade will stifle growth in our region and we will experience a decline in our quality of life. By the end of the decade, Norfolk’s Tide” (light rail) will no longer be operating. It will join ODU’s Maglev in the grave yard of misguided taxpayer “investment”. Light rail will not be constructing in Virginia Beach during the next decade. Tolls will be enacted in our region. Many tolls. Meanwhile, nothing will be done to add lane capacity to the HRBT. Oddly, the “new” RT 460 will begin construction.
Phil Shucet will depart HRT by the end of 2011. His replacement will stay for roughly 3 years and then move on to a larger metro-region. HRT will replace that person with a known “insider” that Mayor Paul Fraim and Mayor Will Sessoms recruit. HRT will quietly return to its practice of hiding the truth about its spending and financial reporting. Fares will continue to increase. HRT riders will howl and the Pilot will support them in their “fight for social justice”. HRT will double its taxpayer subsidy from $70M to $140M a year. Yet, it will reduce its overall service below today’s levels. Jayne Whitney will be allowed to remain in her high paid job at HRT until she decides to “retire”.
The Federal government will “reform” the IRS “tax code” but the “deal” will then ADD a 3.5% national VAT (sales tax) in the “compromise”. As a result the Fair Tax will never be enacted – because it was based on doing away with the IRS and Federal Income tax, not keeping the IRS and reducing the Federal income Tax. Over the next 3 decades that VAT will increase to 15%. Sometime during this 30 year period Congress will “index” the VAT so that it is automatically increased without a vote by Congress.
The VAT will have a dramatic “unintended consequence” that will suppress commerce, give rise to the black market, and actually result in LESS tax revenues for the Federal government. The United States is largely a service sector economy and the result will be a wave of “out of business” signs – unemployment will reach 10% by the end of 2013 and remain above 10% for most of the next decade.
The TEA Party movement will fracture support for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party will regain political power throughout the decade. People seeking government “support” will vote for the Democratic Party out of desperation and fear. U.S. government bonds will obtain junk status.
Government subsidized “healthcare” will bankrupt the Federal Government within the next decade. People will experience long waits for appointments and the quality of care will decline significantly over the next 10 years.
Ops! I left out the most important prediction of all!
I predict that within the next decade, Brian Kirwin will land a speaking role a major motion picture. His role will involve a character engaged in political intrigue.
The Dem House seat that disappears will be Robin Abbott’s. Well, actually the seat will still exists, probably filled by current James City County supervisor Bruce Goodson, but Abbott won’t live in it. The part of her district in Newport News will be swallowed by the two adjacent Dem House seats.
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