RPV State Central: Primary or Convention in 2012?
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, November 16th, 2010 | PoliticsWell, I guess this settles whether George Allen is running for Senate….
Conservatives within the Republican Party of Virginia have long sought conventions as a method of nomination. Establishment GOP types favor primaries for a number of reasons: they build a statewide presence, conventions can be hijacked, and most importantly is that primaries are cost-prohibitive. Smaller fish simply can’t swim with the big ones.
Which is why this evening’s e-mail from former 1st District GOP Chairman Russ Moulton is interesting:
Dear State Central Member,
My name is Russ Moulton, a long-time conservative Republican Party activist, and former 1st District GOP Chairman. I was George Allen’s Fredericksburg Area Coordinator for his successful 1993 Convention campaign for our Gubernatorial Nomination, and was a delegate for Bob Marshall’s unsuccessful US Senate nomination bid at the 2008 Convention. I have not committed to either candidate in the upcoming 2012 Senate nomination contest, and, who knows, we may see additional candidates emerge. It is still quite early.
I am alarmed at what I have learned is happening in advance of the November 20th State Central Committee meeting:
– A few SCC members aligned with one candidate (George Allen) are rushing the SCC to vote Novembers 20th on the method of nomination for 2012 – when most members believed this vote would occur in March or even June 2011, after all nomination method options had been explored, party plan amendments decided, and full information gathered, and deliberated.
– George Allen and Vice Chairman Mike Thomas have been calling State Central Members quietly to lobby them to vote for a Primary at the Nov 20th meeting. While I like and deeply respect Mike, he is a well-known Allen-booster. Word is they have already “lined up their votes” and a Primary is a “fait accompli” – without the direct, open deliberation of Party leaders.
As you are probably aware, it is universally accepted that a Primary works to the great advantage of one candidate (George Allen), and thus why he would ask SCC to give him a Primary.
This sort of Party establishment favoritism, back-room dealing and manipulation is precisely the sort of thing the Tea Party rails against. They are tired of the status quo in our politics.
The Tea Party is already disappointed with our Party for the big domestic spending during the Bush years, and by association, George’s time in the Senate during those years. We do not need to hurt George with the Tea Party by furthering his perception as the establishment candidate, with Party insiders handing him the nomination via a Primary.
In fact, I understand that several Tea Party leaders at the recent Tea Party Convention in Richmond let George know in no uncertain terms their desire for a Convention for 2012.
Our State Central Committee is elected by the grass-roots of our Party, which includes the Tea Party. Let’s not rush a vote on a 2012 method of nomination at the Nov 20th State Central meeting. Let’s get our input from the grass roots that elected us — not react and rush things in response to a request by one candidate. Let’s defer this vote until we’ve properly considered everything, perhaps deciding at the March or June 2011 meeting.
Best regards,
Russ Moulton
Draw your own conclusions, but (1) there’s no question George Allen is running for U.S. Senate now, and (2) conservatives are about to see a hard fought win for conventions as a nomination method tossed aside in favor of a 2012 primary during the Advance.
Now perhaps Allen would win either a primary or convention nomination handily given a generic GOP opponent, but there’s no question that a primary in 2012 benefits George Allen in a huge, huge way — leaving only a handful of GOP public figures even remotely possible as challengers.
Thoughts?
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About the author
Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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22 Responses to "RPV State Central: Primary or Convention in 2012?"
Agree w/ Russ. Interesting thing is that Marshall has already been quoted as wanting a Primary, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom for candidates in his mold. It makes sense that Allen would want to do a primary (as well as not want that fact widely advertised).
I am also undecided on the Senate race so far. I also supported Marshall last time and have been a long time prior Allen supporter.
Russ Moulton is spot on in his analysis and I would urge the SCC to delay their vote on this matter. I will be contacting my SCC member and my unit chair to let them know how I feel and to urge them, if forced to vote on Saturday, to vote for a Convention. This is just the type of behavior that has spawned Tea Party.
I want to beat Jim Webb. George Allen can win; Bob Marshall cannot. Holding a convention that is designed to nominate a candidate who could not win in a statewide primary is a recipe for failure. If anyone truly thinks Bob Marshall can beat Jim Webb, let him prove his statewide electability by winning a statewide primary.
Why is it seen as a positive to give affirmative action to candidates who would not be viable in a statewide primary? If a candidate can not win the support of ordinary non-activist Republicans statewide, what makes you think they can ever become a viable general election candidate? Conventions are a huge waste of money for our chronically poor party, and they fail to develop the skills for a successful run in a candidate.
God, what is with Virginia GOP? Conventions and not primaries? Hello? I almost puked with I saw George Allen all over the morning news shows today. He is so yesterday. But, if that is what the VAGOP wants to run for office, and lose AGAIN…….hey that’s their business. I’m sorry. I am from Missouri and I just can’t get my head around this convention nomination baloney. We have primaries. Yes, I do have reservations about the public paying for them. But let’s take one discussion at a time. CMK
As an outsider, I like primaries unless you have a boat load of candidates. In that case, I prefer a convention eventhough that keeps guys like me from casting my vote for my preference from that party.
I will disclose that I would have preferred Bert Mizusawa over Scott Rigell. I would kinda like to see Bert run for Senate, actually.
When it comes to Allen vs. Marshall, I have to go with Marshall. I agree with many comments before mine. He isn’t perfect, but I really like Marshall. However, if it is just those two in the offering, a primary should be the test.
A primary is the real test of a candidate. I would have far less issues supporting a candidate who wins a primary because they’ve been tested and proven their validity as opposed to a candidate chosen by a small group activists at a convention. Primaries are final and way less divisive in my mind.
Lee: Bang on! We heard all those 2nd District Kenny Golden people whine on and on and on. The idiot got 4.7% of the vote. Big giant surprise there.
These are the same people who were against a primary where a lot more people could participate instead of just the party machinery. (Yeah, they whined about that too and complained it was all rigged–which means, really, they couldn’t rig the convention.)
But, all that aside. Primaries are great campaign-building skills. You build your organization, your fund-raising and your sign locations, just to name a few basics of capaigns 101. which is how you you win general elections. Someday, I do wish the VA GOP will a learn the lesson.
George Allen? Nice guy. Won’t win.
CMK
Two things. If all this is true…
Why does Allen and his supporters feel they have to spring it on us, and why do it this early? We should have time to discuss what method is best, and it could easily wait till the summer of 2011, or atleast the spring of 2011 when these convention related party plan amendments are taken care of.
Also… We have to have a primary for the presidential race which usually happens in February. We also have to have a convention to nominate RNC Delegates, and elect national committee members. Are we really going to force the state to pay for two primaries for us, while still holding a convention ourselves? A senate primary would probably take place in early June. Making it correspond with the presidential primary would be difficult.
[...] Kenney over on Bearing Drift has posted a letter from former 1st Dist. Cmte. Chairman Russ Moulton to RPV State Central members asking them to defer [...]
[...] news on the 2012 primary or convention fight. Yesterday George Allen supporters made their case for a primary. Today, Bob Marshall is lobbying for lower convention [...]
[...] activist is sounding the alarm in this letter to the committee which was originally posted at Bearing Drift. Dear State Central [...]
While we’re at it, let’s decide the nomination process for 2013 this weekend.
I’m fine with that, Brian – all primaries all the time.
Great advertising commissions for consultants!
If the RPV wants to keep the big tent open thats great. Question is who will enter if the action isn’t appealing enough to fill it? Allen is old school retread GOP establishment now. I say this with regret.. Money money money.. here it comes again.
Well in this case James, I think Marshall can raise money and Allen will be haunted by his “macaca moment” and perception as being a retread . Marshall has some support in both the social conservatives and Tea Party Republicans. If he were to get the nomination, there would be money to available to him. I’m sure there will be plenty of party enthusiasm when things turn from a primary to unseating a Democrat senator here in Va.
[...] Britt Howard: Well in this case James, I think Marshall can raise money and Allen will be haunted by his… [...]
Just as a reminder, we had a great discussion about this back in September:
http://www.bearingdrift.com/2010/09/23/time-to-end-statewide-conventions
Here are more comments regarding this post that were lost in the transition to the new server:
Chris Frashure says:
November 16, 2010 at 6:57 pm
I am, without a doubt, on the side of having a convention. It is entirely evident that this is indeed an attempt to once again circumvent the grassroots members of RPV and virtually anoint a candidate. We saw just that kind of despicable behavior by Mike Lee and the unit chairs here in the 3rd district with Chuck Smith and we see how well that went over…
Has anyone heard Pat Mullins comment on this?
JR Hoeft says:
November 16, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Chris –
Just a warning. We’re switching servers. Hang onto this comment and if it disappears today or overnight, please repost it to the thread tomorrow or the day after.
Tweets that mention RPV State Central: Primary or Convention in 2012? : Bearing Drift: Virginia Politics On Demand — Topsy.com says:
November 16, 2010 at 7:08 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Shaun Kenney, Bearing Drift, Chris Frashure, Stacey Parker, Melvin E. Williams and others. Melvin E. Williams said: RT @bearingdrift: Web: RPV State Central: Primary or Convention in 2012? http://bit.ly/bzd1Iv [...]
Brian Schoeneman says:
November 16, 2010 at 7:41 pm
I am, without a doubt, on the side of having a primary. This has nothing to do with the nonsensical “grassroots” argument that always seems to crop up when we’re talking about primaries. There were a lot of people I saw at the 2008 convention who had never been involved in Republican politics before and were simply there to support Marshall or Frederick – that’s not grassroots. That’s astroturf.
If a candidate can’t win a statewide primary, they can’t win a statewide general election. If they can’t get an organization in place to run a statewide primary, they shouldn’t be running statewide in the first place.
If we want a serious candidate to take on Webb or whomever the Democrats nominate if Webb does’t run, we need to be serious about how we select them. A convention will not do the job.
Vivian J Paige says:
November 16, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Definitely a primary. Besides, I can’t vote if you do a convention
Oh wait – you weren’t asking me, were you?
Brian Schoeneman says:
November 16, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Vivian, if Webb doesn’t run again, you’ll have your own primary to worry about!
But hey – I’m not as concerned with non-Republicans coming in to sway the vote. I think that’s a boogeyman that doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. I know some of my colleagues don’t share that opinion.
James “turbo” Cohen says:
November 16, 2010 at 9:24 pm
[b] Macaca [/b]
Chris Frashure says:
November 16, 2010 at 10:19 pm
Brian, the convention seemed to work fine for Cuccinelli – someone many said was far too conservative to win a general. It worked for Gilmore too, who wound up getting trounced, and ever since I’ve always said “I told you so” to the Gilmore delegates because the energy was behind Bob Marshall and it was swelling exponentially.
Also, I too was at that convention (for the first time, mind you, as I was finally old enough; also, I was not supporting Frederick) and the people I met that were Bob Marshall delegates were anything but “astroturf.” Many were young and highly enthusiastic, hence the reason the room was much louder in applause for Marshall than Gilmore causing the Gilmore delegates around me to worry that they did not have the numbers.
To say that someone who cannot win a primary would lose a general fails to take into account the very nature of the political process. Indeed, as I noted, Marshall’s popularity was swelling in 2008 only to be brought to a halt by the convention results albeit by the slimmest of margins. His growing popularity and increasing support for his candidacy could have, and I argue would have, made a real difference in the general election as opposed to Gilmore’s stagnant and boring campaign. Merely having the numbers at the time of the party’s convention or primary does not mean you have or will have the means, assets, or the broader support to win the general election. In addition, you fail to account for broader party support garnered after getting the nomination. You also fail to account for the many intricacies of politics. One of Marshall’s assets was the support of the younger members of the party – a tool that could have been used to draw in greater numbers of the youth to the party and expand to a constituency historically held by the Democrats.
It is entirely possible and in many causes very plausible that a second or third place candidate could win the general election after the party unites behind said candidate. Many would argue that Mitt Romney very well could have defeated Obama considering the state of the economy and the elections shift to matters of economics – John McCain’s weakest point.
To assume that merely because one candidate cannot win and one point in time that he can never win in a different setting is asinine.
Lauren Yoder says:
November 17, 2010 at 7:55 am
Maybe we shouldn’t get to carried away on using the Gilmore/Marshall race as an example. This race is an example of two flawed candidates who really had no chance of winning the general election. Gilmore was disliked by both liberals and conservatives alike and I think everyone knew coming out of the convention that he had no chance at all to win in the general. Marshall had two things going against him, first he had ruffled too many feathers in the HoD over the years and some leaders were ready for some payback. Second, he was not able to get his message out to the whole state. I live in the ninth district and heard nothing about him except for one speaker at our district convention. I think it is fairly clear that he would have won in a landslid if he would have had a better ground operation. But this gets back to the point made earlier, if you can’t reach out to your base before a primary or convention how are you going to reach all voters in the general.
I believe if we want to look at an example of how to win in a convention we need to look at Cuccinelli. In the AG race there were three good candidates, none of whom brought any baggage to the table. The money wasn’t that much different at least for two of the candidates. It is my opinion that Cuccinelli simply had a better message and out worked the other two. I believe any candidate can win a convention if they are willing to completely devote themselves to the cause.
Willie Deutsch says:
November 17, 2010 at 8:32 am
The bigger issue here though is that it seems that the leaders of state central who happen to be long time Allen supporters, seem to once again be trying to pull a fast one on grassroots activists.
When Ken wanted to offer amendments to the party plan to fix conventions, he introduced the idea last year about this time, and then introduced the actual amendments at the summer state central meeting. This way activists and state central members had months to discuss the merits of them before the vote this weekend.
Now we find out days before the state central meeting that a primary is being pushed behind closed doors. We could very easily wait to make this decision till as late as next summer. (That was about when the decision was made in relation to the 2009 cycle.) There is no reason to force a vote on this issue at this time.
If Republicans want to claim to believe in a transparent government that engages the grassroots, then they need to start practicing what they preach for once.
Lauren Yoder says:
November 17, 2010 at 9:05 am
The argument about State Central not representing the people of the party is the same argument you hear when voters complain about congress or the president.
My response to these types of complaints is simply that the people elected them to do what they are doing. If they are doing something that the majority of voters disagree with the actions taken they will have the opportunity to remove them in little over a year. If I had to guess I would say there will be no big uprising and most on State Central will be re-elected.
I personally would love a convention and will be informing my State Central representatives of my opinion. I have no interest in spending hundreds of dollars and eight hours on the road to cast my vote. I will take me less then 10 minutes and no money to go and cast my vote in a primary.
Willie Deutsch says:
November 17, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Here is Ken’s memo to state central in support of the fee changes for conventions.
http://vasocialconservative.blogspot.com/2010/11/cuccinelli-supports-making-conventions.html
Like them or not we need to find a way to make conventions financially viable if we will have them anymore…
Brian Kirwin says:
November 17, 2010 at 12:13 pm
Bolling opposes fees
http://www.billbolling.com/news/article/1446
[...] Drift broke the story here. What it boils down to, is that all of the sudden, out of nowhere, Georgie-boy and his pals want to [...]
[...] RPV State Central: Primary or Convention in 2012? at Bearing Drift [...]
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