VPOD 103: Election 2010, a post-mortem
By JR Hoeft | Friday, November 5th, 2010 | Podcasts
Brian Kirwin, D.J. McGuire, and Shaun Kenney join J.R. Hoeft in looking at the 2010 election and try to make sense of it here in the Commonwealth.
Show Notes:
* Our crack team of experts looks at the 2nd, 5th, and 9th Congressional Districts
* We look at 2012 and express concern over what to do about the Bush Tax Cuts, the Debt Ceiling, and unemployment
* We talk about the advantages of winning so many statehouses and gubernatorial races, but the dangers of relying solely on redistricting
* The electorate is clearly volatile, and has been since 2006. Has the climate changed?
* What are the chances of Keith Fimian coming back in the 11th against Gerry Connolly? What’s his next move?
* What does this election bode for next year’s General Assembly campaign?
* If Republicans have become more true to principle in the governor’s mansion and House of Delegates, what about the State Senate Republican caucus?
* Is George Allen ascendant? Is Rob Wittman an alternative to Allen-Marshall in the GOP in 2012? Will the Tea Party be teammates or a conservative opposition in 2011?
All this and more on this episode of Virginia Politics On Demand.
Don’t forget to friend us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @bearingdrift. Speaking of Twitter, when you use the hashtag #VPOD, you’ll be letting everyone in this audience know the latest buzz you’re seeing in the world of Virginia politics.
Intro by Rick Jensen.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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7 Responses to "VPOD 103: Election 2010, a post-mortem"
J. R. and all the rest of the participants in the podcast. I enjoyed it very much. Three things that struck me were:
1. Redistricting, will it help long term? The answer is probably a little at first. What wasn’t mentioned are the changing demographics of most areas, urban, suburban, or rural. As it always, it boils down to commitment to a set of principles, job performance many things that are just unknowns. And, as with any election, it depends heavily on candidate recruitment and aye, that was the rub at very end of the podcast. On this point, the GOP does well when they get off of the social issues and focus on what matters to most people–jobs, and the economy.
Question: Since VA has its statewide elections in off years, will redistricting even be finished by the time filing opens or they only take effect in 2013? Remember, I’m from Missouri and not as keenly boned-up on the details, so I apologize if this is a stupid question.
2. The George Allen for Senate discussion. I assume that is in 2012 so it’s still just a bit early. We’ve discussed this before, about Rob Wittman being a perhaps fresher and more palatable candidate. He is a proven vote getter but he well enough known and, further, well enough entrenched with a base outside of the 1st distict? Also, would he even want to do it? I mean, a state wide race is a real headache in terms of time and fundraising and one’s personal life. (Congress is bad enough!) I’d certainly vote for Rob over Allen, but…
3. The Tea Party. Yes, there were 85 new GOP Congressmen elected, but contrary even to what I hear on Fox news, they were not all raving Tea Partiers. Still, I can some trouble brewing early in caucus elections on leadership positions. For some of the more ardent Tea Party freshmen, they will soon learn once they hold office it isn’t always as simple as it seems. Constituents of all hues and colors will be right back where they were elected not to go. I think a lot of them don’t yet realize the many the government does (though if a lot of this could be kicked back to state governments where it belongs, we’d be in a lot better shape.)
Again, thanks very much for this podcast. Well done by all participants.
Craig,
1, judging by how it was handled 10 years ago, I’d say 2011.
2, I don’t know why Rob would do it. The First district is about as safe as you can get, and winning it doesn’t exactly make you a “proven vote getter” any more than Bobby Scott always winning the Third makes him one.
3, Excellent points.
Shaun Kenney completely misrepresents the situation in the 5th – Republicans turned out on par with 2006 but Democrats didn’t turn out? Are you retarded? Perriello polled over 110,000 votes-14,000 votes more than Jim Webb in the 5th in 2006, and 30,000 more votes than Deeds in 2009. The 5th had the highest turn out in the state. Thank God Hurt was the nominee, not Shaun’s girl Feda Morton. Hurt had the highest raw votes of any challenger in the state. He polled 7,000 more than McDonnell, and 5,000 more than Allen. Hurt was strong- it was close just because Perriello was also strong.
asking the same question as Craig: the Gen Assembly re-districts this year in their short session. Will the state senators & delegates run in these new districts? I think yes. what does the BD braintrust think?
Kelley, as I said in my comment, yes.
I’ll believe the answer is yes but can hardly see how it is possible. Are final census numbers even in yet? What short session “this year.” It is such a political process. When is the filing deadline for these?
Please ‘splain this me. I’m from Missouri–you gotta show me. In MO, a commission appointed by the Governor does the state house and senate seats (i.e., they rubberstamp what the Governor tells me) and the General Assembly does the congressional districts. But, I’m not in Kansas any more.
Short session: The General Assembly meets for 60 legislative days each even year, 45 each odd year. The budget is a biennial one and it’s passed during the 60 and only amended during the 45.
Census numbers are delivered to the states in March, 2011. Here, the General Assembly and Governor do everything. I imagine redistricting is done in a special session.
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