Glenn Nye’s Offensive Push Backfires Disastrously
By D.J. Spiker | Friday, October 22nd, 2010 | Policy, PoliticsIn a desperate move to turn around five straight polls showing Republican challenger Scott Rigell in the lead, Glenn Nye this week moved to take the offensive. On Monday, in a clear collaboration with Blue Virginia and the DPVA, Glenn Nye lowered his standing by pointing out an offensive blog post, only to be trumped in the news cycle by Scott Rigell’s swift response. On Tuesday, another email surfaces from the same blog and is quickly batted away by the Rigell campaign. In response to Glenn Nye’s playing of the race card, WAVY TV featured a story with local NAACP Chairwoman Georgia Allen, who revealed the hostility and lack of support her members have for the incumbent. (ironically enough, this story was actually filmed the same day as the racist email release)
“Glenn has, as far as the community is concerned, made a number of mistakes”
…
Allen doesn’t see it that way, and it should give pause to Nye politically. “Right now, based on what I’m hearing from my people over and over again: One, he can not put signs in their yards. Two, he has not supported the President…it is very troubling,” said Allen.
The NAACP is working hard to elect two African-American candidates to Virginia Beach City Council, including Republican Tanya Bullock.
Okay, so the NAACP (and the AFL-CIO) have rejected your candidacy. Not to worry, because the VFW has Glenn Nye’s back, so he reminded everyone today via twitter:
I’m incredibly proud that the VFW has decided I’m the best candidate for Veterans in the 2nd District!
Uh-oh. Seems someone on Glenn Nye’s staff hasn’t heard about the VFW dissolving their PAC for their mystifying and anti-veteran endorsements. On Monday, the VFW moved to dissolve their PAC for failing to rescind their errant endorsements; Thursday Glenn Nye trumpets that same PAC’s endorsement.
“It is now evident to most of the VFW leadership, both National and especially the departments, that the VFW has been subjected to extreme negative publicity throughout the nation, and the recent endorsement decisions have, in fact, harmed the VFW’s reputation and future ability to fulfill our mission”
Scott Rigell’s campaign noticed the error and quickly issued a press release calling for the public reversal from the Nye campaign. While we’re sure such a thing won’t happen, it sure is great when staff doesn’t pay attention to anything regarding their endorsements.
So as Friday approaches, Glenn Nye has played the race card and lost the support of the NAACP and then trumpeted an erroneous endorsement that the parent organization has demanded be rescinded and moved to dissolve the errant group.
Meanwhile Scott Rigell pumps out positive ads, holds another open to the public town hall in Virginia Beach and continues to lead in the polls. With the window on effective negative opportunities effectively closed with six business days to go until the election, the chances of a game changer at this point are almost non-existent.
Ironically enough, the week Glenn Nye decided to go on the offensive looks to be the week Scott Rigell solidified his imminent victory on November 2nd.
Talk about backfiring.
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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24 Responses to "Glenn Nye’s Offensive Push Backfires Disastrously"
I’m not sure how much value you can place in the NAACP not backing Nye. Afterall, they don’t even support those who they are supposedly trying to advance, like James Cabiness who is also running for Virginia Beach City Council.
GIGO – (computer science) a rule stating that the quality of the output is a function of the quality of the input; put garbage in and you get garbage out
For the full (and accurate) story on this latest poll, folks need to leap over to Shad Plank:
http://hrblogs.typepad.com/the_shad_plank/2010/10/scott-rigell-releases-internal-poll-show-him-leading-glenn-nye-46-to-41.html
Rigell’s team is stressing that the GOP candidate holds a nine point lead with self-described independent voters ….
…..the poll doesn’t tell you the questions asked or give you a sense of the sample voters – two factors that it is always important to remember can drastically change polling data.
… the polling memo has a interesting ending that raises questions about how impartial the folks conducting the polling were.
DJ, If Scott’s lead is sound, why so much disinformation (or purposeful disregard and non-reporting of relevant factors) coming from you and the campaign?
Jay,
That’s not really a full and accurate story. Nor is there so much disinformation. Every poll released, whether internal or independent has shown a lead in the 5-8 point range. This poll is within that range. Nor is there any reason to believe the lead is not sound; indeed, by all appearances the lead should be far larger.
I don’t work for POS Strategies so I can’t get the crosstabs on the poll. But when a poll is released that is consistent with all of the information we’ve seen thus far, it’s relevant, whether you’d like to believe it is or not is your own business.
POS Strategies’s poll was paid for by Scott Rigell, so of course the recapped results are not impartial. However, the reliability and professionalism of the polling firm is unmatched, as Bob McDonnell, Joe Lieberman, Jim DeMint, Scott Brown or any other of the dozens of elected clients could tell you. To cast doubt on the polling firm or it’s questions because you can’t see the questions would be fair if it were an unknown quantity, which clearly is not the case.
Maybe Shad Plank should have covered that too in their ‘full (and accurate)’ story.
At the end of the day, Rigell has a clear lead in presence, momentum, polling, ads and messaging. Glenn Nye tried playing offense this week and lost handily. THAT’s the ‘full (and accurate)’ story.
Jay D – the poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. Ever heard of them? If not, then you’re an idiot who has no idea what he’s talking about. If you have and you’re still asking these questions, well, you’re still an idiot. These polls are of registered voters, or even likely voters. No one has any interest in getting a stacked sample – what the hell would that do for you? Besides, if you don’t believe the poll’s results, go ahead and do on of your own – if you’ve got a cool $9,000 to spare. Then all of your questions can be answered by your own pollster.
My God, where do you people come from? Portsmouth?
Great post, D.J. As far as all of the stuff Scott Rigell is doing…well, that’s what winners do. His campaign team has not let up a bit. They are running as hard and as fast as they can toward the finish line. And that’s why we’ll be calling him Congressman Rigell in January.
Mr. Nye’s and the Democratic Party’ cavalier discard of the truth and constant negativism IS backfiring. I can’t go into a store anywhere in Virginia Beach that I do not overhear people talking about how flagrantly erroneous his adds are and the sentiment that he (Mr. Nye) must think we are all fools. Similar to GIGO is WGACA: (What Goes Around Comes Around).The day of reckoning is upon him on Nov 2nd. Scott Rigell’s POSITIVE approach will win the day.
PS. Tracker Boy is Back in full force. Got right up in Teri’s face on the way out of the event last night. UNCOOL and Infuriating! (But then again so is the whole Nye campaign).
Since when do you people start taking the NAACP at all seriously?
@Ron. Since all I bring to the table is a college degree and a couple decades in Marketing/ Advertising/ PR …. I must be an idiot and totally clueless vis-à-vis market research, consumer behavior, influencing decision and market outcomes, segmentation, targeting, and positioning.
Public Opinion Strategies (POS)? Hmmmmm….. yes, I do believe I’ve heard of them. Isn’t POS the NRCC republican party polling firm hand-smacked nationally for suspicious polling methods…. and charged In 2001 “with violating Virginia’s polling disclosure laws, and also accused of using push polls to influence elections.”
http://theruralpatriot.wordpress.com/2006/09/30/push-polling-in-the-29th-part-2update/
Need more? In 1996, private tobacco hired POS to produce and conduct a push poll, which was then used as a not-so-veiled threat against then Texas Attorney General Dan Morales. The polled data produced “overwhelming” evidence and concluded: if Morales pressed forward with TX lawsuits against tobacco, he faced certain defeat.
The devil is in the details … of the poll. The POS poll began with a few basic questions and then zeroed in on Morales:
“Elected officials are held to high standards. Here are some reasons to vote against Morales:
- Pro affirmative action,
- Supports gun control (remember, this is Texas!),
- Donation to Louse Farrakhan’s Nation of Islam.” (Morales staffers purchased 2 tickets to a dinner from a local chapter.)
Respondents were also told the lawsuits “could cost Texans thousands of jobs, prevent the AG from fighting crime, and reward only a few, wealthy personal injury lawyers.”
AFTER this setup>/i>, the POS poll asked what respondents thought of the lawsuit and …. surprise, surprise!… there was overwhelming opposition to the suit.
The man in charge of the polling? William McInturff, political hack, chief pollster (at the time) for presidential candidate Bob Dole, & founder of POS (and whom Bob Dole fired a month after the tobacco poll for ALSO failing to predict Dole’s embarrassing loss to Steve Forbes in the Delaware primary.
Any other questions this dumb (but not from Portsmouth) hick, can help you with?
D.J.,
The NAACP (per it’s By-Laws) is prohibited from endorsing candidates. It’s the African-American Political Action Committee (AAPAC) that has endorsed Andrew Jackson and Tanya Bullock.
TQ,
I certainly take the NAACP seriously when I have a ticket to their annual Freedom Fund Banquet, which is next Friday night.
Joel,
So Cabiness should simply have been endorsed based on the color of his skin? I don’t think so.
The African-American community leadership has been behind Andrew Jackson in the At-Large field all along. Cabiness was an unknown to most of them, and he was asked to withdraw lest he siphon off of Jackson. Cabiness refused.
Cabiness flipped off the African-American community leadership, and they’re happy to return the gesture.
Henry, my point wasn’t that they aren’t endorsing, it was that they’re openly not supporting the incumbent. That’s note-worthy.
Jay,
You didn’t exactly debunk the fact that the POS poll is in line with every poll thus far in the 2nd District. Nor does it change the fact that POS Strategies is considered one of the premiere firms for conservatives. While you rail against samples, push polls and cross-tabs, Rigell is still leading by 5-8 points. Big picture.
Oh, and ‘hand-smacked nationally’ would entail linking to a national news article ‘hand-smacking’ POS, not a word press blog. Thanks.
DJ, the POS poll is something I regrettfully hold against Scotty. It is not credible. Its Rino- propaganda which I hold in the same high regard as Gore’s global warming science. Real 3rd party polling conducted by non partisan sources aint gonna come from Scotty the Rino. He should fit right in with congress.. lets see.. uh.. 15% approval was it?
DJ – I’m either growing smarter, or more skeptical!, as I season.
The only facts I know are as follows:
- POS and Ayers, McHenry & Associates are Republican campaign pollsters.
- POS has one of highest PIE ratings (Pollster Induced Error) amongst polling all firms which conduct field surveys about voting intentions and which are released into the public domain in advance of an election.
- Scott Rigell owns the POS poll. NRC owns the Resurgent Republic poll (Ayers, McHenry & Assoc.)
- The Hill poll: excluded Kenny Golden; his potential impact wasn’t measured.
- The Hill poll: found “26 percent of independents say they are undecided, which makes them a key factor in the race.”
- The Hill poll: was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 397 (land line) phone interviews (w/ 96 Democrats/ 130 Republicans/ 155 Independents), among likely voters.
- The Hill Poll: has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
- The Hill Poll results: 42% for Rigell; 36% for Nye, 19% undecided.
- Nate Silver regards anything less than a 7 pt. lead to be a statistical ‘dead heat’.
Regarding the ccAdvertising poll Scott bought … I will resist any urges to give my opinion and allow the company’s own website text promo make my case:
In the communications industry, there is no one-size-fits-all solution. With that in mind, each ccAdvertising campaign is tailored specifically with our clients’ overriding goals in mind to achieve the desired results from respondents…. Complete Customization Allows for Complete Control.
Holler at me if I have the facts wrong. Otherwise, just trying to keep it real!
The motto for
POS could be:
“Never let the truth interfere with your plans”
DJ – it’s a far-fetched stretch you make to link Chairwoman Allen’s comment to the racist emails. According to Ms. Allen, Nye lost the support of ‘her people’ because: “… he has not supported the President.
“Okay, so the NAACP (and the AFL-CIO) have rejected your candidacy.” (paragraph 3)
DJ, please explain why Nye’s lack of support for the President and his failure to secure NAACP and AFL-CIO endorsements should be troubling to moderate (and not-so-moderate) Republicans like myself.
And why does Scott Rigell consistantly reminds us that Glenn Nye supports the President “83%” of the time?
Who should I believe Georgia Allen or Scott Rigell?
@The Question – Because Rigell is an expert “fabricator”. According to opencongress.org, the numbers are:
Glenn Nye and Nancy Pelosi have voted together 83 times on roll call votes since January, 2007 in votes where neither abstained, representing a voting similarity of 64%.
Glenn Nye and Eric Cantor have voted together 1326 times on roll call votes since January, 2007 in votes where neither abstained, representing a voting similarity of 69%.
J. Forbes and Glenn Nye have voted together 1413 times on roll call votes since January, 2007 in votes where neither abstained, representing a voting similarity of 72%.
Appears Glenn Nye votes with Cantor and Forbes more than he does with Polosi. No wonder the NAACP,AFL-CIO and left-wing of the Democratic party is non-supportive. Maybe you should just believe … the facts?
So Scott Rigell is full of $#!%?
Can I quote you on that?
So should I support someone who is? Or someone who doesn’t vote with Pelosi as much as he does with Republicans?
I am on record calling Scotty out on the BS his campaign puts out as far back as April. This is one major reason I jumped ship and decided to support Kenny. Truth in advertising, or lack thereof, has proven my point repeatedly.
Yeah Kenny is splitting the vote.. from both candidates. Too bad for VA-02 that you people lack the courage to stand up for the candidate who stands for principle over party, does not play mind games with clever number games and has a work record to back it all up,
The Speaker of the House rarely casts a vote. It’s not because the Speaker and Glenn Nye don’t agree. Are you guys really that dumb?
Brian, President Obama presumes Americans don’t like the health care bill because “we don’t understand it”. Your response indicates a similar arrogance. If admitting the NRCC (and the DNCC) spin voting data would just rock your foundation, please, do not check out this FactCheckOrg report.
http://factcheck.org/2010/10/nrcc-overstates-dems-voting-record-with-pelosi/
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The Window Man, Ben Rothenberg. Ben Rothenberg said: http://bearingdrift.com/2010/10/22/glenn-nyes-offensive-push-backfires-disastrously/ – Ouch! @glennnye, NOW I feel bad for you. [...]
“New poll: 2nd District race a dead heat between Nye, Rigell”
http://hamptonroads.com/2010/10/new-poll-2nd-district-race-dead-heat-between-nye-rigell
Jeez, wish I would have said that!
@DJ and Brian Kirwin – PolitiFact reports Rigell attack ad – NOT TRUE. What say you?
http://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2010/oct/25/scott-rigell/nye-voted-lockstep-nancy-pelosi-83-percent/
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