Good news for Virginia Republicans from Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball”:
VA-02 (Nye-D): Glenn Nye was one of a host of Democrats to win a Republican seat in 2008, aided in part by Obama’s coattails, only to find themselves immediately in the GOP cross-hairs. While Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, Democratic enthusiasm has since plummeted while Republicans have rallied. As a result, Nye’s GOP challenger, used car dealer Scott Rigell, will be running with the wind at his back. Nye has tried to boost his moderate and conservative credentials, voting against health care reform and a handful of other Democratic priorities, but voters may care more about his party affiliation than his voting record. There is a former Republican official, Kenny Golden, running as an Independent but so far he has shown few signs of fundraising or support and seems unlikely to siphon off enough votes from Rigell to make much of a difference. All the polling and news indicates the momentum belongs to Rigell, and the Crystal Ball rating moves from Toss-Up to Leans R.
VA-05 (Perriello-D): The closest House race in the nation in 2008 is living up to its billing again in 2010. After a contentious seven-way GOP primary that stunted Republican fundraising and enabled incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello to sprint to an early cash advantage, it seemed possible that Democrats could hold this hard-won seat. Now the momentum is firmly behind Republican nominee Robert Hurt, a state senator from the southern part of the district, who has matched Perriello ad-for-ad on television and led every single partisan and independent poll released so far. The Crystal Ball cautions against counting out Perriello, who won one of the most stunning upsets of 2008, but this will be a far different year, and we are moving this race from Toss-Up to Leans R.
