Sabato says VA-02 and VA-05 are leaning GOP
By JR Hoeft | Friday, October 1st, 2010 | PoliticsGood news for Virginia Republicans from Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball”:
VA-02 (Nye-D): Glenn Nye was one of a host of Democrats to win a Republican seat in 2008, aided in part by Obama’s coattails, only to find themselves immediately in the GOP cross-hairs. While Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, Democratic enthusiasm has since plummeted while Republicans have rallied. As a result, Nye’s GOP challenger, used car dealer Scott Rigell, will be running with the wind at his back. Nye has tried to boost his moderate and conservative credentials, voting against health care reform and a handful of other Democratic priorities, but voters may care more about his party affiliation than his voting record. There is a former Republican official, Kenny Golden, running as an Independent but so far he has shown few signs of fundraising or support and seems unlikely to siphon off enough votes from Rigell to make much of a difference. All the polling and news indicates the momentum belongs to Rigell, and the Crystal Ball rating moves from Toss-Up to Leans R.
VA-05 (Perriello-D): The closest House race in the nation in 2008 is living up to its billing again in 2010. After a contentious seven-way GOP primary that stunted Republican fundraising and enabled incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello to sprint to an early cash advantage, it seemed possible that Democrats could hold this hard-won seat. Now the momentum is firmly behind Republican nominee Robert Hurt, a state senator from the southern part of the district, who has matched Perriello ad-for-ad on television and led every single partisan and independent poll released so far. The Crystal Ball cautions against counting out Perriello, who won one of the most stunning upsets of 2008, but this will be a far different year, and we are moving this race from Toss-Up to Leans R.
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Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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14 Responses to "Sabato says VA-02 and VA-05 are leaning GOP"
Attended state Senator Frank Ruff/future Cong. Robert Hurt function in Clarksville last night. Robert Hurt was ON FIRE. the mood was hopeful.
Many people talked about how they couldn’t get a straight answer from Perriello about any issue; they didn’t think he told the truth about how/why he voted for Obamacare; they don’t think he understands the devastating effects of the Stimulus & they don’t like the fact that his satellite offices are not responsive to their questions (& Tom, really, that is such an easy one to fix).
I sat at the table with strong NRA/VCDL members. They rolled their eyes when I asked would NRA endorsement of Perriello make a difference. They said, no, gun owners/advocates were not stupid.
This is surprising, given that a Rigell election will simply increase the probability of a divided Legislature and essential grid lock. I guess that is what the republicans covet; that is, total obstruction so nothing gets done. Their ability to thwart the will of the people as expressed in the last election sets a new standard for the failure of governance; we aspire to do nothing. For them, doing nothing means the rich, the wealthy, the high net worth corporate executives, will take care of themselves, and the rest of us can eat cake.
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“For them, doing nothing means the rich, the wealthy, the high net worth corporate executives, will take care of themselves, and the rest of us can eat cake.”
Mike Barrett does more stereotyping of his rivals than any liberal I know. I’m sure he “despises” conservative talk radio for doing EXACTLY what he does.
Or, maybe he’s getting increasingly bitter over the fact that 2010 is increasingly looking like a complete wave election against his beloved Democratic party.
Don’t forget, Mike, that after the 1994 elections ended the Democrats’ total control of the federal government, President Clinton was able to achieve great success by moving to the center and working with the GOP-controlled Congress. If President Obama is serious about solving our nation’s problems, he would be wise to follow Clinton’s example.
Yes Jason, you are correct, but I fear it is a much different republican party now than it was then. The adopted tactic of obstructionism at a time that we as a nation face challenges here and abroad, stemming from a lack of will that we can make things better, reveals to me that the party now seems content to create a new permanent oligarchy in which the impediments to control by corporations are removed as the high net worth individuals get richer and the broad middle class disappears. That is a formula for revolution, not progress.
This rating change in VA-02 is great news. Scott Rigell’s campaign has fought for every inch of ground all along. They concede nothing and go after every aspect of a campaign (event appearances, 4 x 8 signs, bumper stickers, endorsements, fundraising, yard signs, Facebook, Twitter, canvassing, phonebanking, etc.) with their “Operation Domination” mindset. I almost feel sorry for Glenn Nye…almost, but not quite.
“Yes Jason, you are correct, but I fear it is a much different republican party now than it was then.”
I’ve got to agree with that. Republicans know damn well that working with Obama is out of the question because they’ve spent the past two years demonizing him. Even if he does move to the center, he’s still an evil Marxist Muslim Socialist in many people’s eyes.
Solis,
Most of us know that he is not evil and not Muslim.
LC definitely has it right. I don’t think I’ve seen a candidate work as hard as Scott Rigell and his team have. Just check out his campaign Facebook page; They’re constantly meeting voters, attending events, and holding their own events. They’re even holding open town hall events in each city in the District.
Meanwhile, Glenn Nye avoids his constituents and puts out commercials claiming to be independent despite the fact that he votes with the Democratic leadership over 80% of the time. Ask yourself, if he thought the health care bill “cost to much” why didn’t he work with Republicans against its passage or propose his own counter amendments? That would have been a demonstration of real independent leadership. Unfortunately, all Second District voters got was a last minute decision from Rep. Nye that he would vote against the bill, conveniently AFTER Pelosi announced she already had the numbers to pass it. We need a real leader with business experience and a respect for our constitution. Scott Rigell is that man. Can’t wait until the November 2!!
Poll question #6
Obama.
A. I was moved by his rhetoric
B. I gave $1000 and I’m perfectly fine with it
Don’t forget to take a “Golden” opportunity on Nov 2nd !!!!
Are you really that moronic?! All TP has done is vote AGAINST the will of his district and FOR the Pelosi/Reid/Obama agenda – get off of the drugs and get a dose of reality, you socialist!
Mike, are you really that moronic?! All TP has done is vote AGAINST the will of his district and FOR the Pelosi/Reid/Obama agenda – get off of the drugs and get a dose of reality, you socialist!
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