Sabato: 2010 was always going to be a Republican year
By Ward Smythe | Friday, September 3rd, 2010 | Politics
In his latest Cyrstal Ball (not to be confused with the 1st District candidate with questionable finances) UVA Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato currently projects that Republicans will gain as many as 47 house seats, 9 senate seats and 9 governorships.
That gives the Republicans control of the House, and a good step up towards the next redistricting cycle, but doesn’t quite take the Senate.
Although Sabato does note that in the 6 times since World Ward II that the House of Representatives has flipped, the Senate has as well.
Sabato notes:
Overall, though, a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular—most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless, in the time-honored American way, voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party.
This year has hope and change all over it.
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Ward Smythe is a pseudonymous aspiring freelance writer from Central Virginia. Until late 2007 Ward blogged at the now defunct "Ward View" and was active in Virginia and national politics. Ward's signature style of snarkery gained him a unique following that he hopes to regain here at Bearing Drift. Ward uses humor, satire and sometimes photoshop to make his point. Ward is proud to be an equal opportunity offender.
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22 Responses to "Sabato: 2010 was always going to be a Republican year"
To quote my inner Mike Barrett, then, should the GOP be rewarded with victory, that mandate is for smart government. The kind that generates growth, jobs, and freedom. It does not mean a return to mindless policies that further exacerbate debt.
You gotta hand it to Sabato, spewing forth anecdotal political commentary that they teach you in Poli Sci 101 in college.
J.R., a mandate for smart government, and republican governance, is an oxymoron. Think attack on 9/11, the debacle of the failure to respond to the disaster in New Orleans, the self policing of the oil and gas industries that involved call girls, prostitution, and parties on the inspection visits, the dissolution of financial regulation that resulted in the great recession, and the decision to respond to the disgrace of 9/11 by making up a case to attack a country that was not remotely involved in that blatant attack. Sorry, while it is not popular to state the case today for prudent and effective government, the case today is never more obvious; regretfully, Bush and McDonnell show why this role should be entrusted to professionals.
How quickly we forget the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center attack that killed 6 people, or the 1998 bombings of the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Clinton lobbing a few missiles into Afghanistan and Sudan fixed that damn Al Qaeda problem. Didn’t it? Since 9/11, we were not worried about the attacks on our own soil. Since the elite Democrats have taken the realm, we’ve had a Fort Hood shooter, New York Square Times bomber and underwear bomber and the other loonies that seem to come out (i.e. flying a plane in the IRS building and the Discovery Hostage situation). Even though the loonies are out their all the time.
Obama, Pelosi and Reid invested in the UAE nuclear energy program, gave $2 billion to Venezuela-owned oil company Petro bras and Cuba has committed to 7 oil rigs in the Gulf. Meanwhile, we have a moratorium on oil exploration as we lost 2 of our 33 rigs and soon we’ll be getting our horse and buggies out as every other country increases their oil exploration.
After New Orleans Mayor Nagel (declaring to rebuild N.O. as a chocolate city) and LA Governor Blanco delaying federal help, as the Federal government cannot respond without a request from the Federal Government. We saw the quick response of the Obama administration when the BP Oil rig was in federal waters. And Governor Jindal did an excellent job. Can’t say much about not waving the Jones Act that didn’t look too good on Obama’s love affair with the unions. There is no comparison…big government sucks!
Then you have the marvelous job this administration is doing with the Arizona Immigration law and then Hillary Clinton including it in a report to the United Nations. You have those awful human rights issues of Iran, Syria and Arizona.
The financial debacle was caused from a repeal of the Glass-Steagill Act that created too big to fail. This was done under the Clinton administration. Meanwhile, Obama has the dismal stimulus bill, which needs additional stimulus every couple of months (note jobs or small business bills).
Our fabulous Recovery Summer has a job loss of 283K jobs over the past three months… Yeah, your right…that change thing is working so much better for us. No matter what, BIG (not “NO”) government doesn’t work. This is a conservative movement, not necessarily a Republican or Democrat. It’s just easier to do it through the Republican party because the Democrats have been hijacked by Socialists.
Hopefully, I capture most of the details…I’m sure someone will straighten out the details.
Duh. Sabato isn’t saying anything that anyone doesn’t already know. Of course 2010 was going to be a Republican year – other than 2002, the President’s party has gotten pummeled in mid-term elections.
The difference between the usual and what is happening now is that the number of seats with the potential to flip has increased significantly, and that’s not due to historical trending – it has everything to do with what happens when you force legislation people don’t want on them while ignoring the issues they care about
And sure, Republicans aren’t popular, but neither are Democrats. Being more popular by 10 or 15 points when both parties popularities are in the 20-30% range doesn’t really matter – it’s like saying people tend to like the clap slightly more than they like herpes. Sure – but people hate them both.
Brian… given the options of the “clap” or “herpes”… how does one choose?
With the unemployment rate rising to 9.6 after the Democrats spent a trillion dollars of tax payer money with the promise it would keep the unemployment rate below 8 the bums should be thrown out.
Tim, you can cure the clap. That’s about the only upside.
Will white: Actually the premise of spending that money was to keep the country out of a Depression, in which we’d have seen unemployment rates topping 20%. So, from that perspective, it worked. The major thing wrong with the stimulus is that it was too small.
Steve I must correct you.Obama claimed that if the stimulus wasn’t passed unemployment would go over 8% well it passed and now it is at 9.6%.If I were ANY Republican running for office I would put this in a ad and mention that the DemoRATS now want to spend another 50 BILLION dollars on yet another round of shovel ready projects.Democrats get ready a category 5 hurricane is coming on November 2nd.China is laughing at our idiot in office.
One of the penalties of not participating in politics is that you will be governed by your inferiors. – Plato
Will: “DemoRATS” Really? What are you, 12?
DemoRAT = Tim Kaine
Perriello fallout: Is Palin right about the National Democratic Party?
Guest Column by Paul Goldman
At least give Sarah Palin, and her dysfunctional politics this much: She would never have done to a Republican ally what the National Democratic Party did to Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello as reported in today’s newspapers. Technically, neither the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the DNC, nor the White House has officially decided to cut Tom from their 2010 election contribution list. But the party pros responsible for “Are National DEMS dumping Perriello?” headlines had a reason for putting out the story, knowing full well the dynamic they would set in motion. Amazingly, they tried to justify their coming decision to scale back or totally cut-off such campaign funds on the basis of a military strategy, as if they were veterans on a real battlefield under such circumstances. Indeed, if they knew anything about how real warriors fight real wars, they would know the solemn motto of the Marines now fighting in Afghanistan: no one is ever left behind on the battlefield unless there is no other possible option. Marines take care of their own. You go home together, or you don’t go home. Thus, their analogy – they had to publicly feed Tom to the wolves as part of some strategy to preserve the Democratic House majority – exposes them as wearing a uniform they never earned.
Would Sarah Palin have publicly knee-capped a loyal supporter in this way? No, for all her “diva” attributes, she is not a fair-weather friend. In the movie “Gladiator”, Russell Crowe’s character is to be executed. He kneels, facing the camera, the Grim Reaper to the side, sword raised and ready to swing and deliver the be-heading blow. As a Roman General, Crowe asks to be given a “soldier’s death.” Agreeing, the executioner stands behind the kneeling Crowe, raising his long sword so it can be plunged into the back of his neck. As a loyal Democrat, who backed the President on health care and the Congressional leadership on other hot button issues, Congressman Perriello didn’t deserve this morning’s political be-heading. He is and has been a loyal soldier.
I ask you: What does the National Democratic leadership gain from this morning’s story about how they have the “cajones” to leave their politically wounded on the battlefield to fend for themselves?
Earth to Washington: This was not a positive story about your political character. Any courtroom lawyer would offer it as Exhibit A to prove why the national democratic party has put the country in danger of being taken over by the Beck-Gingrich-Hannity-Limbaugh-O’Reilly-Palin crowd. They understand the concept of loyalty being a two-way street.
Is Tom Perriello the underdog in his fight for re-election? Yes, I tried to make that point last month in an analysis for George Roper’s web site, hoping to awaken those who were in such denial, they were spinning a poll showing Tom down 6% to his unknown GOP challenger Robert Hurt as good news.
But now the Big Hurt is about to be given to Tom, and it isn’t from the Palin side of the spectrum: it is from allegedly the liberal Democratic side, the top officials no less!!!
I repeat: How does today’s story about Tom help the Democrats do better in November? It doesn’t. The story was to help a few consultants and their clients.
That’s right: it is being used so some consultants and top party officials can have a story after the midterms about how “smart” they were in helping to save this or that incumbent from defeat by making the “tough” decision to redirect funds from those who lost.
It is sophomoric game, hardly “change we can believe in.” It fuels the very cynicism the GOP is using to get back in power this year. It emboldens Republicans who smell the blood in the water, and at the same time demoralizes Democrats.
Politically, Tom is over 21, so to the extent he knowingly voted for measures unpopular in his district, “push has now come to shove” as the saying goes. Statistically, he knew the risks, and presumably voted his conscience. Indeed, national Democratic officials may have warned him about the risks, and thus feel he has no cause to complain when they cut him loose to “twist in the wind” as they use to say in the Nixon White House.
Bottom line: The official Democratic line for nearly two years has been that Tom Perriello did the right and courageous thing to back the President and the Speaker. From the standpoint of a candidate in this year’s 5th district election, this may have been political suicide. But from the high ground Democrats claim to hold, this was a vote of principle, for the people, which in time will be understood, and valued accordingly.
Tom Perriello has earned the loyalty of the White House on down the national Democratic food chain. If they feel giving him money fails their risk vs reward equation, that’s for them to decide in private and handled accordingly. It is wrong but life isn’t fair especially in politics.
But publicly, Tom deserves, indeed Virginia Democrats must demand, the full, loyal support of all the smaller men and women in Washington. There are any number of ways to support his effort short of money, and furthermore to put the best “spin” on whatever money stories make it into the media.
A real soldier doesn’t abandon his buddies on the battlefield. If National Democrats want to know why they slow-walked themselves into their current mess, take notice: if all you have are fair-weather friends, then you are far more alone than you realize
http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/
James: Note that that was written by Paul Goldman, former poltiical brain of Doug Wilder, a pol not known for sticking with his downed “buddies on the battlefield.” Goldman, like Wilder and, of late, NLS hasn’t had any problem sticking it to other Dems when he thought it was in his best interest.
In fact, in general, party loyalty among Dems is pretty low. That’s one thing the GOP generally has going for it in any election…Republican voters will pretty much forgive anything from one of their own, perhaps including the proverbial “dead girl, live boy”…look at Sen. David Vitter (Pervert -La.) for an example.
Steve the Democrats are rats that are working hard to destroy everything that made the USA such a great place to live.Take a good look China they just lowered out credit rating.BTW im only 11 but smarter than any DemoRAT.
Steve the DemoRats did forgive Ted Kennedy for killing a girl, did you forget this ?
Well Will, some did. Killed his prospects for the presidency, though. He never got the dem nomination. But, in your rush to drag up the 40 year old Ted Kennedy example, you missed my larger point. Republicans will stick with their guy through thick or thin, Democrats won’t. Hell, look how long it took you guys to bail on GWB …you waited until he was leaving office. In contrast, some Dems are already bailing on Obama. Same thing happened with Carter, even without the kind of virulent campaign against him that Obama has faced. A lot of Dems agreed that the guy just couldn’t govern. It happened with Clinton too, but to a lesser extent, because the GOP attack on him was so petty.
Steve the DemoRATS are sticking with Rangel and Waters.
Will: Rangel? You mean the one the president suggested should “end his career with dignity?” Yeah, they’re sure sticking with him alright. Um, you do know that the Dems control the House now, right? So those investigations into Rangel and Waters? Those were ordered by Dems. Geeze, I like some good partisan red meat as much as the next guy, but lets try to keep it reality-based, okay?
Didn’t the Democrats forgive the late Robert Byrd (WV) for being a KKK member and filibustering the Civil Rights Act. How quickly we forget that one!!!
JJ: Yes, how quickly. That only happened more than 40 years ago.
By that standard, is it fair to say that Republicans want to repeal Social Security because Goldwater did?
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