We’re nearing one of the two crucial stretches in campaigning. Labor Day weekend is one of the times when people traditionally settle on preferences for the November ballot. You’ll see it in poll after poll after poll. (The second is the final two weeks when “undecideds” decide, and even those are usually people who pretty much decided much earlier, and only solidified their leanings, or decide to not show up at all).
Entering the Labor Day threshold, the Democrats are being trounced by a margin unseen before in the history of Gallup polling!
Gallup shows a 10 point lead in voter preference for Republicans over Democrats, double the lead the GOP had in the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994!
“higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994.”
Republican numbers have pretty much hovered where they are for the last several months, but have rarely gotten near 50% in the past 60 years. They are over that now. Democrat numbers have collapsed to 41%. Even in 1994, Democrats scored 46% in this same poll.
Democrats have dropped to the hardcore Party base. They are showing zero, zilch, nada support among Independents with numbers like this.
Part of this is likely to candidates across the country launching television campaign spots much earlier than usual, casting the dye in August rather than waiting for the fall. But mostly, this looks like a monster wave that will make the 50-plus seat win in 1994 look like a pre-season game.
