Man overboard, and it looks like Pelosi!
Six months ago, pollsters were figuring that the GOP may pickup 20 or 30 seats in the House of Representatives. That meant with a full-court press and saving some bluedogs like Perriello (or lapdogs, like Nye), Democrats could save the House.
Current polling has shifted so poorly for the Democrats that the current debate in national Democrat circles is this – will money spent saving the majority result in a cataclysmic loss of an additional 40 to 60 more seats that might’ve been saved with the money squandered on the least defendable seats?
Challengers are usually happy to be somewhere in striking distance in the dog days of summer. This year, Republican challengers are not only in striking distance, but ahead, and in some cases, ahead by double digits.
Obama’s job approval numbers are at 1994 Clinton lows. Rassmussen has the Generic Congressional ballot with a double-digit Republican advantage, and independents are deserting Democrats.
Polling shows independents backing Republicans on the economy by a large margin. DNC chief Tim Kaine, defending Democrats on national television this weekend, launched a tired attack about Republicans and social security.
I couldn’t believe how pathetic Kaine sounded. Here is America struggling in a recession economy and massive unemployment, and independents are ditching the Democrats like J. Bruce Ismay in a woman’s coat in a Titanic lifeboat, and Kaine pulls out a social security attack from the 1960s. After losing New Jersey and Virginia, Kaine is becoming the only person Michael Steele can laugh at.
Independents are ditching Dems because of the economy, not scare tactics about social programs. I can’t believe Kaine didn’t rewrite that script when they handed it to him.
Let’s remember why independents are independents. They have problems with either party, but they dislike the party in power more. For the indy voter, familiarity breeds contempt. If you have the power, and you aren’t doing the right things with it, you’re in for a heapin’ helpin’ of indy ire. The party out of power pretty much gets a pass.
So, where does that leave Glenn Nye, the Ed Grimley of American Politics? Big trouble indeed, I must say.
Despite being handed a Pelosi pass to pretend he’s not a Democrat once Nancy had the votes for things like massive healthcare takeovers, cap-and-tax schemes, and the upcoming “Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters are ethical giants” votes, Nye is in one of those seats that would get a flood of money from a Democratic Party focused on saving its House majority.
Understanding that August polls are notoriously soft, polling trends show that the loss could be more than just the House, and more than a 2012 rebound by Obama could get back.
Focusing on seats it never would’ve won without the Obama wave of 2008 (Perriello, Nye) takes money from seats in the next tier that should stay Democrat in a normal year.
Will Democrats pour all their energy, manpower and funding into seats that are likely to be capsized quicker than the S.S. Poseidon on New Year’s Eve, or will they write off folks like Nye and Periello and try to keep a 40-seat loss from ballooning into 70, 80 or even 100 seat shift that would likely be out of reach in 2012?
I’m betting on the latter.
