Have Democrats written off Nye and Pelosi?
By Brian Kirwin | Tuesday, August 17th, 2010 | PoliticsMan overboard, and it looks like Pelosi!
Six months ago, pollsters were figuring that the GOP may pickup 20 or 30 seats in the House of Representatives. That meant with a full-court press and saving some bluedogs like Perriello (or lapdogs, like Nye), Democrats could save the House.
Current polling has shifted so poorly for the Democrats that the current debate in national Democrat circles is this – will money spent saving the majority result in a cataclysmic loss of an additional 40 to 60 more seats that might’ve been saved with the money squandered on the least defendable seats?
Challengers are usually happy to be somewhere in striking distance in the dog days of summer. This year, Republican challengers are not only in striking distance, but ahead, and in some cases, ahead by double digits.
Obama’s job approval numbers are at 1994 Clinton lows. Rassmussen has the Generic Congressional ballot with a double-digit Republican advantage, and independents are deserting Democrats.
Polling shows independents backing Republicans on the economy by a large margin. DNC chief Tim Kaine, defending Democrats on national television this weekend, launched a tired attack about Republicans and social security.
I couldn’t believe how pathetic Kaine sounded. Here is America struggling in a recession economy and massive unemployment, and independents are ditching the Democrats like J. Bruce Ismay in a woman’s coat in a Titanic lifeboat, and Kaine pulls out a social security attack from the 1960s. After losing New Jersey and Virginia, Kaine is becoming the only person Michael Steele can laugh at.
Independents are ditching Dems because of the economy, not scare tactics about social programs. I can’t believe Kaine didn’t rewrite that script when they handed it to him.
Let’s remember why independents are independents. They have problems with either party, but they dislike the party in power more. For the indy voter, familiarity breeds contempt. If you have the power, and you aren’t doing the right things with it, you’re in for a heapin’ helpin’ of indy ire. The party out of power pretty much gets a pass.
So, where does that leave Glenn Nye, the Ed Grimley of American Politics? Big trouble indeed, I must say.
Despite being handed a Pelosi pass to pretend he’s not a Democrat once Nancy had the votes for things like massive healthcare takeovers, cap-and-tax schemes, and the upcoming “Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters are ethical giants” votes, Nye is in one of those seats that would get a flood of money from a Democratic Party focused on saving its House majority.
Understanding that August polls are notoriously soft, polling trends show that the loss could be more than just the House, and more than a 2012 rebound by Obama could get back.
Focusing on seats it never would’ve won without the Obama wave of 2008 (Perriello, Nye) takes money from seats in the next tier that should stay Democrat in a normal year.
Will Democrats pour all their energy, manpower and funding into seats that are likely to be capsized quicker than the S.S. Poseidon on New Year’s Eve, or will they write off folks like Nye and Periello and try to keep a 40-seat loss from ballooning into 70, 80 or even 100 seat shift that would likely be out of reach in 2012?
I’m betting on the latter.
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About the author
The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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20 Responses to "Have Democrats written off Nye and Pelosi?"
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That’s quite a lot of subjective reasoning as it relates to the 2nd district. The creditability of your treatise is incumbent upon that Nye was truly given dispensation to vote as he does. Your inference that Democrats have given up on Nye may be in fact be a ploy of “not to worry”, “it is in the bag”. I would think, especially from you a “conservative” political consultant, you would emphasize running like you are behind and take nothing for granted.
Most importantly, you have absolutely nugatory time valued quantified data to substantiate your claims concerning the 2nd District race especially since there are three candidates on the ballot. I am sure the Independent and incumbent relish the thought of your arrogant analysis and pray that your readers stay home on election day, because “it is in the bag”.
I know that if Brian writes anything over one line, that he is just “acting” like a writer. But most of us know better and don’t bother to read anything but his quips which generally are very funny.
wish the Dems would give up on Perriello.
I wouldn’t want to provoke Brian with offhand or stupid comments because he has shown on occasion where he will rip your guts out and then make you wear them like a hat. Of course, this is a great source of amusement for those of us who are watching.
Well Tim J., I wouldn’t either; that’s why I simply don’t make off hand or stupid comments.
Brian could care less that our roads are crumbling, that our rates of tuition are rising through the roof, our public buildings are deteriorating and not being maintained, our tunnels fail, are bridges are abandoned, our teachers are let go, our public safety people are replaced because the Governor wants to cut $2,000,000,000 more from the budget. For him, that is just a good election tactic.
On the fence, nice of you to put assumptions in my mouth and then debate them. Next time talk about what I actually wrote, and not what you presuppose I meant, and I won’t treat you like a blithering idiot.
Mike, amazing you would comment on a column you won’t read.
Tim J, how right you are.
Mike again…where are these teachers you say are let go?
Kelley why would the Dems give up on Perriello ? He has a boat load of cash,tv ads everywhere,a ton of volunteers, 7 campaign offices and a opponent that is flat ass broke and thinks all he needs to do to win is not be Perriello.Hell the Dems are happy as hell with Tommy boy.
Brian, they are in the unemployment line, as are all the public employees fired due to the Governor’s cuts.
How many and in which cities, Mike?
I’m looking and looking for teachers being fired for budget cuts. Heck, Virginia Beach schools had a surplus and a debate whether to spend it on bonuses.
How many of the administrators were put in the unemployment lines with the teachers ? If the Board of Supervisors of each county told the school boards to cut the budget by 20% and they couldn’t lay any teachers off you wouldn’t have this problem. Take a good look at how much the administration has grown over the past 10 years most of them make twice what the teachers do and they are running over top of each other.Bob McDonnell is not the one to blame the school boards and the board of supervisors that allow them to do this type BS is who you should be mad at.
I vote for Virginia Beach schools to refund the portion of property taxes that goes to the school sytem for those of us who don’t send our children to public schools, since we are saving other taxpayers money. Oh, wait…what was this thread about?
I would like info on the sources that Dems at the national level have concerns of a really big loss vs. just losing a majority in November.
Hey Brian,
Didn’t you mean Perriello in the headline and first sentence in this article instead of Pelosi?
No I didn’t, but thanks for playing.
So you meant the Democrats are writing off Pelosi?
I fail to see any evidence of that and other then that the point you were trying to make escapes me.
If they are trading in the House majority in favor of keeping it from becoming a total blowout, they are surrendering her Speakership.
I wouldn’t write off Nye. Unless Rigell drops out, he is going to take away from a lot of Golden’s votes. Hopefully Kenny can pull it out nonetheless.
Hopefully Kenny can pull out what? A few % of the vote? I wish he would just drop out so we can take care of Nye and be done with it. All the Dems I know are cutting off Nye, and don’t want anything to do with him. He’s an independent voice that is controlled by Pelosi. Not so independent…
I’ve seen the Rigell crew out and about, and as things ramp up, they’ll be locking down support and votes at an incredible rate. There was a ton of talk and chatter about him during the primary, and what happened? He still one. People will do a lot of talking again, but in the end I do believe he’s going to win. I just can’t see folks rallying around Nye, he can’t even get his own party to back him.
@JAX, http://hamptonroads.com/2010/08/2nd-district-independent-gets-seat-debate-table?cid=srch
I can’t make this stuff up.
Over 60 teachers were let go in Accomack County
in this year’s budget.
I went personally to Nye’s office, in DC, twice, to ask him NOT to vote for the health care bill. Both
times he had not made a decision and it was hours
before the vote. His father is a physician; he
should know better. I was in medicine. People
are now finding out about the things in that bill
that have nothing to do with health care: the 1099
provision that will kill small businesses and
the federal tax on real estate transactions.
He voted “no” only because Pelosi released his vote
as unnecessary.
Rigell has created jobs, met payrolls for years,
understands budgets, costs, efficiency in operation.
We need more business people in government and
someone who represents citizens not a House leader
who doesn’t know what she’s doing.
True, I am a Libertarian, small government, no debt
person. Those values in government have been sadly
missing and future generations will suffer as a
result.
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