Can Morgan Griffith Overcome Rick Boucher’s Incumbency and Cash Advantage?
By Ward Smythe | Saturday, July 17th, 2010 | PoliticsHouse Majority Leader Morgan Griffith has been touted as the best chance to unseat 9th District Representative Rick Boucher in some time. Boucher has been entrenched in his seat since he ousted long-term Congressman Bill Wampler in 1982. I grew up in that district and have long said, because of Boucher’s skill and attention to constituent services, that the seat is his as long as he wants it.
But could that change this year?
Boucher, while far to the left of most 9th District residents has had the favor of the coal industry. But that has changed with Boucher’s support of cap and trade legislation which threatens economic disaster to far Southwest Virginia’s main source of income.
Don’t take my word for it, consider the statement from then candidate Barack Obama.
“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”
Calling Rick Boucher a liberal (because his is) has never been successful in the 9th because he does take care of his constituents. But this time, he’s voted for legislation that could take food off their tables. Will that be enough for Griffith?
Griffith faces an uphill battle because he’s not “from” the 9th, but from nearby Salem. Still he’s well known and an agressive campaigner.
In the most recent fundraising reports Griffith outraised Boucher bringing in $259,000 to Boucher’s $248,000. But Boucher has a cash on hand balance of round $2 million. While Roanoke, Bluefield and Bristol aren’t expensive television markets like Northern Virginia and Tidewater, there’s still a lot of territory to cover.
Real Clear Politics has the race in the Fightin’ 9th as a toss up. Bob McDonnell carried the 9th District with 66% of the vote. A year earlier, while Virginia turned blue for the first time in decades, the 9th District gave John McCain 59% of the vote. But, running unopposed that year, Boucher received 97% of the vote.
In spite of the protestations of Nancy Pelosi, signs are pointing to massive Republican gains in November. Will Virginia’s Fightin’ 9th be among them?
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Ward Smythe is a pseudonymous aspiring freelance writer from Central Virginia. Until late 2007 Ward blogged at the now defunct "Ward View" and was active in Virginia and national politics. Ward's signature style of snarkery gained him a unique following that he hopes to regain here at Bearing Drift. Ward uses humor, satire and sometimes photoshop to make his point. Ward is proud to be an equal opportunity offender.
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10 Responses to "Can Morgan Griffith Overcome Rick Boucher’s Incumbency and Cash Advantage?"
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If we didn’t have a fight on our hands here in the 5th, trying to elect Robert Hurt & unseat Perriello, we’d be helping out in the 9th.
Morgan Griffith, we’re pulling for you.
Kelley where is all the money that Hurt was going to raise ?
@will, I do believe Robert Hurt has raised close to a 3/4 million dollars and has close to 300,000 on hand.
I’ll make a prediction re: the 9th – the first legit independent poll to be released will put both candidates in the 40s. Won’t be good news for Boucher.
greg: if Boucher can’t break 50% in a poll,isn’t that bad news for him, the incumbent with the wind of Obama at his back?
Mr Watson Perriello has almost 2 million cash on hand so Hurt’s $300,000 is chump change if Hurt even had that much which he doesn’t.Kelley for months you claimed Hurt was the candidate that could really bring the cash in.Well where is it ? Perriello is on tv everyday I have yet to see even one tv ad for Hurt.
Boucher wins with between 55 and 58 percent of the vote. $$$ to Griffith are $$$ wasted for the GOP. If they are to have any hope of beating Periello, the $$$$ need to flow to Hurt. I hope GOP donors don’t wake up the day after the election to see Boucher 58 Griffith 42 and Periello 50.5 and Hurt 49.5. Talk about a waste. I didn’t think Hurt would do so poorly in raising funds, but the national money just hasn’t flowed to him like it has to other GOPers in other states.
In Re: Hurt v. Periello I saw this blurb earlier today. Sometimes it is not always the money that counts, it’s the actual candidate. That being said, I would be more comfortable if Hurt had more cash on hand to maintain this lead.
“A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia’s 5th congressional district shows Robert Hurt (R) beating Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) by a huge margin, 58% to 35%.
Perriello barely beat 6-term Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) in 2008 and now trails among most demographic groups”
I have heard a lot of horrible things about the Cypress Creek Power Plant recently and want to say that I believe this is a good source of jobs and infrastructure to a region that needs it badly. The data from the report by the CBF was false and was on old data and not a atually scientific research. Go ODEC!
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