It is becoming hardened conventional wisdom that the Democrats are headed for a cataclysmic mid-term election. Jim Pethakoukis pretty well sums up the consensus in Reuters.
More and more, the political cake looks fully and thoroughly baked. Oh sure, perhaps congressional Democrats can sidestep the coming Republican wave through clever campaign tactics. Perhaps they can de-nationalize the November midterm elections by successfully waging dozens of bloody, up-close-and-personal knife fights coast to coast. Make every Republican a controversial Sharon Angle or Ron Paul with a radiation vibe.
Yet for that “fight them on the beaches” approach to really work, Democrats probably need a bit of breeze at their backs. They need some some help from the economy, the dominant issue with American voters. As last week’s miserable jobs report made clear, however, help does not appear to be arriving anytime soon.
Given the importance of the economy in the minds of voters, I can understand Jim’s certainty. I just don’t agree with it.
First of all, as Jim notes, there are still three more jobs reports out there. Moreover, given the extreme fall-off in the labor force this month, the unemployment rate has lost much of its political importance. Unlike last year, when a summer job spurt enticed hundreds of thousands back into the labor force to drive up the unemployment number and make the news politically meaningless, a major increase in jobs in any of the next three months could carry more political punch.
More importantly, however, each of the last five mid-terms (1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006) have had the turning points that were neither expected nor part of the prevailing political narrative. To wit . . .
In 1990, President Bush broke his word on tax increases, all-but-ensuring angry Republicans would refuse to show up and badly damage his party. Then Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August; foreign policy re-emerged as a critical issue; and the GOP base came back. The 1990 midterm election became a de facto stalemate.
In 1994, voters entered the summer angry about the slow recovery and unhappy with “Hillarycare.” However, in August, the House seized up on a procedural rule regarding a major crime bill due to divisions among the majority Democrats. Voters turned heavily against the Dems even as the economy continued to grow (and a little faster) and Hillarycare was shelved. What was expected to be a decent but not tremendous Republican year became the revolution of 1994.
In 1998, it was all Lewinsky, all the time. Despite Bill Clinton’s best efforts, independents and moderates abandoned the Democrats in droves in November. However, the Republican Congress – eager to capitalize on “Monicagate” – tried to neutralize everything else by passing a bloated budget and getting out of town. Conservatives and Republicans were furious, and turnout among both plummeted, ensuring the Dems avoided punishment by centrist voters (the Dems held serve in the Senate and cut the GOP House majority in half – a historic first for the party in the White House).
In 2002, the question of Iraq seemed paramount, until the Democrats split in half like a ripe melon and let the authorization for war sail through Congress (the Dems had a two-seat majority in the US Senate). Without an overarching issue, the Democrats wrote the narrative with an extralegal candidate replacement in New Jersey and the Wellstone funeral in Minnesota. The resultant Republican anger turned a likely status quo election into one with GOP gains (including enough to capture control of the Senate).
Finally, in 2006, Iraq, the economy, and Katrina were leading the way to a bad Republican year, but it wasn’t until the Mark Foley scandal blew up that voters painted big targets on just about any Republican they could find. The House dramatically changed hands, and the Democrats gained six Senate seats (enough to take control of the chamber) despite already having 18 seats to defend (they won a whopping 24 that year).
So, I would humbly submit that not only are the 2010 elections four months away, but that there is at least one major event between now and then that will reshape the playing field.
In other words, GOP candidates and volunteers shouldn’t get too cocky – yet.
