An interesting article yesterday in Politico and poll numbers from Pew indicate this could be a very bad year for Democrats – but also indicates that it will be a very bad year for independents as well.
First, the overall mood of the country, as measured by Pew Research Center, shows that Republicans are highly energized about the coming election.
“The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party’s voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign. Moreover, more Republicans than Democrats are now paying close attention to election news (64 percent vs. 50 percent). At this stage in previous midterms, news attentiveness was about the same for voters in both parties. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 16-20 among 1,802 adults and 1,496 registered voters reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that the Republicans also continue to hold a substantial advantage in the proportion of their party’s voters who say they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote. Currently, 77 percent of Republican voters say they are absolutely certain to vote compared with 65 percent of Democratic voters.” (h/t: Campaign Spot)
But, perhaps more interestingly, is how members of the Tea Party ideologically center themselves. According to the Politico report of a Gallup Poll:
Sixty-two percent of tea party supporters surveyed over three separate Gallup polls say they are a “conservative Republican.” Another 17 percent say they are “moderate/liberal Republican.”
All told, 79 percent of tea party supporters say they are Republicans.
Only 6 percent of the tea party supporters surveyed identify as a “pure independent” while 15 percent said they would likely identify as a “liberal,” “moderate” or “conservative” Democrat.
Asked which party they would likely vote for if the election were held today, 80 percent of tea party supporters said the GOP compared to 15 percent who would favor a Democrat. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39320.html#ixzz0scVwvgJK
In Virginia, Real Clear Politics holds that three seats are in the “Toss Up” category – VA2, 9, and 11; one seat is in the “Leans Republican” category – VA5.
Given the latest data about the enthusiasm of the GOP and the make up of the Tea Party, would those candidates running as independent conservatives do themselves and the party better by dropping out now? In other words, would VA2 become a “leans Republican” and VA5 become a “likely Republican” without independent candidates?
The primaries were long, hard fought, and ended nearly a month ago. As expected, most conservatives are beginning to forgive and rally around the Republican nominee.
In the Second District, Ben Loyola, the endorsed candidate of the Hampton Roads Tea Party board, gave an impassioned speech at Freedom Fest Sunday and, in front of thousands, wholly endorsed Scott Rigell for Congress.
In the Fifth District, most candidates have been gracious to State Sen. Robert Hurt in acknowledging his nomination.
“It was a hard fought win in a race that was not always clean but [Hurt’s] campaign stayed true and today he is our nominee,” wrote Feda Morton in her concession. “I look forward to working with Sen. Hurt in beating Tom Perriello this November.”
But in both the 2nd and 5th, there are fractures within the conservative brand which could peel off as much as 20% of the Republican vote, if you believe the Gallup poll. And that 20%, when attempting to defeat an incumbent, is likely to be enough to spell defeat for the Republican candidate.
So, while this is supposed to be a very bad year for Democrats, it might not be that bad after all with independents running in the mix.
Is that how independents Jeff Clark and Ken Golden would like to be remembered – as spoilers?
In, perhaps, a year that could see sweeping change in Congress (with many Democrats losing to Republicans), as of now it still will take Republicans having to win 20 of the 36 “Toss Up” seats to gain a majority in Congress (according to RCP).
Clark’s and Golden’s candidacies will make that possibility all that much more difficult.
Even more chilling, should Republicans win just half those toss up seats, but barely lose in VA-2 and VA-5 – which is a distinct possibility, Clark and Golden would be the cause of Democrats maintaining their majority and Speaker Pelosi preserving her title.
As a conservative, I’m not so sure I’d want that on my conscience.
