Tom Davis’s 11th Congressional poll on Pat Herrity leaked

Back in February former NoVA Representative Tom Davis (R-11) told Politico that congressional candidate Pat Herrity (R-11) was “running neck-and-neck” with current Representative Gerry Connolly (D-11). He did not elaborate further and speculation has persisted since.

It seems that Davis has apparently been spouting off those poll results to political insiders in attempts to gain support for Herrity.

A source close to Tom Davis told me that poll puts Herrity down by 5 points to Connolly. It also states that Keith Fimian, the other candidate vying for the GOP nomination, is down 10 points to the incumbent. Herrity also beats Fimian in name identification although this could be explained by Pat’s famous father, Jack Herrity.

This revelation brings up an interesting question on the poll conducted by Davis’s Republican Main Street Partnership: if this information is accurate then why not publicly release the results?

Since the first rumblings began that Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity would enter the race there has been hearsay that Davis was the driving force behind Herrity throwing his hat into the ring.

Tom Davis is no fool and he knows that if he publicly endorses Herrity before the primary then that could ultimately be a death knell for the campaign. Davis is wildly unpopular with the conservative base and any appearance of collusion would give the Fimian campaign more cannon fodder to level accusations of being the “establishment” candidate at Herrity.

Of course, this could be dicey since Davis endorsed Fimian’s 2008 campaign. However, Fimian ran unopposed so who else would Davis support? If Davis had bucked the party and endorsed Connolly then Davis could have kissed a potential future Senate run goodbye.

By not immediately endorsing Fimian this election cycle, questions arose about Davis looking for another candidate. When Fimian accepted Davis’s endorsement in 2008 he lost a lot of prestige with conservatives. Attacking Herrity for an endorsement would be tricky but not impossible.

To fully understand why Davis is no friend to conservatives take a look at the RINO’s he aligns himself with in his Republican Main Street Partnership which claims to support, “centrist values.” You will find the likes of none other than Maine’s gruesome twosome of Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, the salty Sen. John McCain, and the Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger. While some close conservative friends of his are on the list, the vast majority champion centrist values.

Pat Herrity probably does not want to be lumped with that crowd.

That is why you won’t see a Davis endorsement any time soon. The smart move is to wait until after the primary, when his endorsement will be expected and benign. Davis, who is consistently booed when he makes an appearance at local campaign events, was booed so loudly at one of Gov. Bob McDonnell’s campaign kickoff event last year that he had to begin shouting.

If this poll was done in January or February, what would it look like now that Herrity has been in the race for awhile now? Will Tom Davis release any future polls?

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About the author

Alan Moore

Alan Moore is a conservative activist and public relations expert in NoVA. Follow Alan on Twitter: @SecPress