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JR Hoeft

Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.

Comments

11 Responses to "Predictions Open-Thread"

1. 

   JCinQC October 31, 2009 13:48 pm

   McDonnell 56%, Deeds 43%, Other 1%

   GOP HOD +13

2. 

   Mitch October 31, 2009 21:33 pm

   Will McDonnell exceed George Allen’s percentage? That is the question…

3. 

   James November 1, 2009 09:54 am

   5 seats in the house gained

4. 

   Bigvinu November 1, 2009 14:17 pm

   PPP’s final poll will show some skewed electorate making the race seem closer than it actually is which will in-turn energizes some more Democrats to turn out. That, in combination to the Obama visit will shrink the gap and the final outcome will look something like:

   McDonnell: 52%-54%
   Deeds: 46%-48%

   Down ticket, Bolling and Cucinelli shouldn’t have too much trouble.

   L. G.
   Bolling: 55%
   Wagner: 44%

   A. G.
   Cucinelli: 56%
   Shannon: 44%

5. 

   TC Robinson November 1, 2009 21:29 pm

   McDonnell wins 55-44
   Bolling wins 54-46
   Cuccinelli wins 52-48

   GOP gains 9 seats in the HoD.

   Extra Prediction: Morgan Griffith is ousted as Majority Leader in January.

6. 

   Jeb Wilkinson November 1, 2009 23:41 pm

   McD 57%
   Bolling 56%
   KC 55%

   HOD GOP + 7

7. 

   Lee Talley November 2, 2009 01:57 am

   House 8 seats

   and the Senate Flips to Republican by the second day of the session.

8. 

   Brad Martin November 2, 2009 10:42 am

   Adjust your HOD seat counts by -1 for the GOP, Schmidt upsets Purkey in the 82nd.

9. 

   Steve Vaughan November 2, 2009 11:13 am

   About a six point win.
   Call it McD-53 Deeds-47
   L.G. race about the same, maybe a point closer.
   A.G. race tigher. Cuccinell-51 Shannone-49
   Republicans gain betwen 2 and 4 seats in the House.
   GOP efforts to take control of the Senate, by offering Ed Houck or Northam administration jobs, complicated by failure to hold Cuccinell’s Senate seat.

10. 

    Steve Vaughan November 2, 2009 15:34 pm

    Hadn’t seen the latest poll when I posted that. Looks like the last-minute blitz on Cuccinelli hasn’t had any effect. Okay, he leads the ticket, at 54 to 46 for Shannon.

11. 

    Don November 2, 2009 20:08 pm

    I hope the polls are accurate. I’d like to see a landslide. But I find it hard to believe that a conservative will win by more than 5 points. There has been a long-term trend in our state and nation towards voting based on the effect your vote will have on your own income. Voters, like the ones who stated they wouldn’t have to worry about putting gas in their car or making their mortgage payment after Obama’s election, are more and more common these days. These voters are very motivated to show up at the voting booth…they believe their vote will enable their continued dependency on economic redistribution. The rest of us are much less motivated and much less envious of the economically advantaged…we vote with less passion and have priorities in our lives other than politics. The feed-at-the-trough voter is a growing force in elections. Unless the rest of us are sufficiently disturbed by this trend and turn-out in greater numbers, this election will be decided by less than 5 points.
    Turnout% McDonnell Deeds
    45% 50% 50%
    50% 52% 48%
    55% 55% 45%
    60% 57% 42%