It’s less than 100 days until Election day, and McDonnell’s latest 14-point lead (basically the same for the whole statewide ticket) is fantastic, and a credit to McDonnell’s campaign.
Democrats could catch up really fast. Deeds hasn’t campaigned. Hanging out at the Homestead and putting insomniacs to sleep with his debate performance hasn’t helped. Deeds hasn’t told anyone what he’d do as Governor, other than decide what to do once he’s Governor. If he actually decides to start campaigning, the gap could close quickly.
But having a campaign means staking out a position on the big things that matter. Deeds hasn’t.
The plus? He won’t tick anyone off that way. The minus, Democrats have no reason to be thrilled about voting for Deeds, and Independents like to be wooed. That’s a big reason why they’re independents.
If Deeds actually decides to say what he’d do as Governor at anywhere near the level McDonnell has, he’ll give his base something it needs (motivation) and he’ll get into the conversation for independents. He also may alienate folks who may switch his way.
Is it too late? Will the press roll their eyes at Deeds’ suddenly becoming Mr. Policy after months of dodging debates and hard questions? I think that Democrats won’t change their campaign message about Deeds at all.
More likely we’ll see a giant onslaught of attack ads trying to make McDonnell look like some caricature of himself and try to win the way Deeds won the primary…by being the one with the least negatives.
Except this isn’t a low turnout June election. Has Deeds built up enough positives among his base and the independents he has now to go all negative all the time with help from National Democrat mudslingers?
It doesn’t seem so.
So while Republicans are enjoying a wide lead, we should pretend like it’s a 5 point race. Engage your neighbors. Write letters to the editor. Help your local Republican candidates. Tell people why you support Bob McDonnell.
Let’s not relax until the last vote is cast.
